Abstract: Human salmonellosis is an important food-borne disease and S. Typhimurium is the most common serotype attributed to pork products. Under a farm-to-fork strategy, reducing the levels of Salmonella-positive pigs entering the slaughterhouse is an important goal. A framework model was developed, where the effect of dynamic (infection characteristics) and non-dynamic (cleanness and disinfection, biosecurity measures, etc.) factors were considered. Four baseline scenarios were created, corresponding to different levels associated with national Salmonella monitoring programs, and sensitivity analyses were run for the non-dynamic factors. Moreover, the option of vaccination was incorporated into the model, in order to provide with a tool for the formulation of an optimum vaccination strategy depending on the characteristics of the vaccine.
Abstract: A self-regulated epidemic model was developed to describe the dynamics ofâSalmonellaâTyphimurium in pig farms and predict the prevalence of different risk groups at slaughter age. The model was focused at the compartment level of the pig farms and it included two syndromes, a high and a low propagation syndrome. These two syndromes generated two different classes of pigs, the High Infectious and the Low Infectious, respectively, which have different shedding patterns. Given the two different classes and syndromes, the Infectious Equivalent concept was used, which reflected the combination of High and Low Infectious pigs needed for the high propagation syndrome to be triggered. Using the above information a new algorithm was developed that decides, depending on the Infectious Equivalent, which of the two syndromes should be triggered. Results showed that the transmission rate ofâS. Typhimurium for the low propagation syndrome is around 0.115, pigs in Low Infectious class contribute to the transmission of the infection by 0.61-0.80 of pigs in High Infectious class and that the Infectious Equivalent should be above 10-14% of the population in order for the high propagation syndrome to be triggered. This self-regulated dynamic model can predict the prevalence of the classes and the risk groups of pigs at slaughter age for different starting conditions of infection.
Abstract: Some attempts have been made to elucidate the association between positive serology and Salmonella detection by bacterial culture in individual pigs and pig herds. This study aimed to appraise whether the existing knowledge on such association provides grounds for the utilization of serology monitoring data for predicting Salmonella subclinical infection of pigs entering the abattoir. Serology test results of pig carcasses (taken at abattoirs) originating from 436 representative active herds in Ireland were utilized to estimate the overall cecal Salmonella carriage of Irish slaughter pigs. To this effect, two separate simulations were conducted using (i) herd-level regression data and (ii) animal-level sensitivity (0.2890) and specificity (0.8895) data, which were extracted from published articles. The herd-level approach estimated a moderate prevalence of cecal Salmonella carriage of 0.222 (sigma = 0.094; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.069 to 0.431), which matched closely the mean prevalence value from the surveys' validation data of Salmonella-positive cecal samples (n = 1,098) obtained at Irish abattoirs (0.215; 95% CI: 0.192 to 0.240). The animal-level simulation generated an output distribution with slightly more uncertainty (sigma = 0.102 and 95% CI: 0.146 to 0.537) and a higher estimate of cecal carriage (0.312), which was an effect of the low relative sensitivity of serology, common under field conditions. While the herd-level simulation appeared to be technically more appropriate, since its correlation is only moderate, further elucidation of other factors related to subclinical infection should be attained for their incorporation in prospective dynamic on-farm models, which would be useful in the ultimate goal of estimating the risk of carcass contamination during slaughter.
Abstract: In previous work a deterministic model for the compartment level was built, taking into account the two different syndromes with which Salmonella Typhimurium appears at pig farms. Based on this model, a stochastic one was built in this work that simulated different compartmental sizes, taking into account compartments of 200 to 400 pigs. Multiple scenarios of starting conditions of infection (SCI) ranging from 0.25 to 100% were tested for each population size. The effect of each of these two factors on the probability of disease extinctions and the prevalence of each of the classes of the model and the risk groups of pigs were estimated. The results showed that the compartment population had an inverse effect on the probability of disease extinction. On the other hand, low SCI resulted in high levels of early extinctions reaching 45%, while higher SCI led to high levels of late extinctions. Early extinctions resulted in the absence of the pathogen from the compartment, while late extinctions did not assure it. This effect shows that reducing the population of the compartment combined with appropriate cleaning and good farming practices could have a positive effect in the reduction of the risk of introducing S. Typhimurium into the slaughtering procedure. On the other hand, the profile of seroprevalence at slaughter age allows for risk characterization of the farm, given the relative stability and the small variation for higher SCI.
Abstract: This risk assessment study aimed to estimate the prevalence of Salmonella on pig carcasses and pork joints produced in slaughterhouses, on the basis that within groups of slaughter there is a strong association between the proportion of Salmonella-positive animals entering the slaughter lines (x) and the resulting proportion of contaminated eviscerated pig carcasses (y). To this effect, the results of a number of published studies reporting estimates of x and y were assembled in order to model a stochastic weighted regression considering the sensitivities of the diverse Salmonella culture methods. Meta-analysis was used to assign weights to the regression and to estimate the overall effect of chilling on Salmonella incidence on pig carcasses. The model's ability to produce accurate estimates and the intrinsic effectiveness of the modeling capabilities of meta-analysis were appraised using Irish data for the input parameter of prevalence of Salmonella carrier slaughter pigs. The model approximated a Salmonella prevalence in pork joints from Irish boning halls of 4.0% (95% confidence interval, 0.3 to 12.0%) and was validated by the results of a large survey (n = 720) of Salmonella in pork joints (mean, 3.3%; 95% confidence interval, 2.0 to 4.6%) carried out in four commercial pork abattoirs as part of this research project. Sensitivity analysis reinforced the importance of final rinsing (r = -0.382) and chilling (r = -0.221) as stages that contribute to reducing considerably the occurrence of Salmonella on the final product, while hygiene practices during jointing seemed to moderate only marginally the amount of contaminated pork joints. Finally, the adequacy of meta-analysis for integrating different findings and producing distributions for use in stochastic modeling was demonstrated.
Abstract: While serology and bacteriology tests measure distinct aspects of the Salmonella infection cycle in a pig, some research to date have indicated a relationship between caecal contents prevalence and seroprevalence at the herd level. Aiming to reduce Salmonella in pork, as part of a national monitoring programme, muscle samples from pig carcasses are taken at Irish abattoirs and corresponding pig herds are categorised according to meat juice serology. A Monte-Carlo simulation study was conducted on meat juice ELISA results of Salmonella from the most representative Irish pig herds (436), in order to estimate the overall prevalence of Salmonella in caecal contents of slaughter pigs in Ireland, as well as per serology category. The estimated prevalence of caecal Salmonella carriage was high, at an average of 0.222 (ÃÂ=0.094 and 95% CI: 0.069 â 0.431) and matched closely the mean prevalence value of a validation data set of Salmonella-positive caecal samples obtained at abattoirs (0.220), although with a comparatively smaller spread (95% CI: 0.197 â 0.246).
Abstract: For the last years there has been an increasing interest in microbial food safety and some efforts have been put into modelling Salmonella Typhimurium at the preharvest part of the pig food chain, the farm. Transmission of S. Typhimurium at the farm level is a dynamic process and a good approach is to model it using epidemic models. In this paper we use two different types of model to describe the dynamics of S. Typhimurium at farm, one deterministic and one stochastic and try to validate we aim to validate them using the results of an experimental infection. The results of each of the modelling techniques are discussed and compared. Deterministic models are used for modelling infectious diseases at big populations while at pig farm and pen level stochastic models seem to be more appropriate. Demographic event-driven stochasticity gives variation to the results and seems to explain the actual fluctuations of Salmonella prevalence of batches of pigs from the same farms arriving to slaughterhouse. The need for systematic sampling at slaughterhouse or farm level is drawn and future work towards enrichment of the models in order to predict most common real life scenarios is proposed.
