Marc Buyse is Chairman of IDDI Consultants at the International Drug Development Institute (IDDI) in Houston, TX and Associate Professor of Biostatistics at the Universiteit Hasselt, Belgium. He holds degrees in engineering and statistics from Brussels University (ULB), management from the Cranfield School of Management (Cranfield, UK) and a doctorate in biostatistics from Harvard University (Boston, MA). He was President of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, President of the Quetelet Society, and Fellow of the Society for Clinical Trials. He worked at the EORTC (European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer) in Brussels and at the Dana Farber Cancer Institute in Boston prior to founding IDDI in 1991. He currently serves on the editorial board of the journals Cancer Investigation, Clinical Trials, Biometrical Journal, Journal of Clinical Oncology, Statistical Methods in Medical Research, and Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research.
Abstract: PURPOSE: The mechanisms by which trastuzumab imparts clinical benefit remain incompletely understood. Antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity via interactions with Fcgamma receptors (FcgammaR) on leukocytes may contribute to its anti-tumor effects. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in FCGR3A and FCGR2A genes lead to amino acid substitutions at positions 158 and 131 respectively and affect binding of antibodies to FcgammaR such that 158V/V and 131H/H bind with highest affinity. This study aimed to determine whether high affinity SNPs are associated with disease free survival (DFS) among patients with HER2-positive non-metastatic breast cancer.EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Genomic DNA was isolated from 1,286 patients enrolled in a trial of adjuvant trastuzumab-based chemotherapy. Genotyping was performed using Sanger sequencing and Sequenom mass spectrometry. RESULTS: 1,189 patient samples were successfully genotyped for FCGR3A and 1,218 for FCGR2A. Compared to the overall results of the BCIRG006 study, in the subset of patients genotyped in this analysis, a less robust improvement in DFS was observed for the trastuzumab arms compared to control arm (HR=0.842, P=0.1925). When stratified for prognostic features, the HR in favor of trastuzumab was consistent with that of the overall study (HR=0.74, P=0.036). No correlation between DFS and FCGR3A/2A genotypes was seen for trastuzumab-treated patients (158V/V vs V/F vs F/F, P=0.98; 131H/H vs H/R vs R/R, P=0.76; 158V/V and/or 131H/H vs others, P=0.67). CONCLUSION: This analysis evaluating the association between FCGR3A/2A genotypes and trastuzumab efficacy in HER2-positive breast cancer did not demonstrate a correlation between FCGR3A-V/F and FCGR2A-H/R SNPs and DFS in patients treated with trastuzumab.
Abstract: In castrate-refractory prostate cancers, main efficacy endpoints are progression free survival for phase-II trials and overall survival for phase-III trials. However, various progression criteria have been used, and overall survival may become more difficult to impact due to the recent approval of more effective drugs. PSA is useful in clinical practice, provided it is interpreted with caution, but cannot be used as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials. Finally, circulating tumor cells represent a promising area of development.
Abstract: ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION: Pre-clinical data suggest p53-dependent anthracycline-induced apoptosis and p53-independent taxane activity. However, dedicated clinical research has not defined a predictive role for TP53 gene mutations. The aim of the current study was to retrospectively explore the prognosis and predictive values of TP53 somatic mutations in the BIG 02-98 randomized phase III trial in which women with node-positive breast cancer were treated with adjuvant doxorubicin-based chemotherapy with or without docetaxel. METHODS: The prognostic and predictive values of TP53 were analyzed in tumor samples by gene sequencing within exons 5-8. Patients were classified according to p53 protein status predicted from TP53 gene sequence, as wild type (no TP53 variation or TP53 variations which are predicted not to modify p53 protein sequence) or mutant (p53 non-synonymous mutations). Mutations were subcategorized according to missense or truncating mutations. Survival analyses were performed using Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. Cox-regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of outcome. RESULTS: TP53 gene status was determined for 18% (520/2887) of the women enrolled in BIG 02-98. TP53 gene variations were found in 17% (90/520). Non-synonymous p53 mutations, found in 16.3% (85/520), were associated with older age, ductal morphology, higher grade and hormone-receptor negativity. Of the non-synonymous mutations, 12.3% (64/520) were missense and 3.6% were truncating (19/520). Only truncating mutations showed significant independent prognostic value, with an increased recurrence risk compared to patients with non-modified p53 protein (Hazard Ratio=3.21, 95% confidence interval =1.740-5.935, P=0.0002). p53 status had no significant predictive value for response to docetaxel. CONCLUSIONS: p53 truncating mutations were uncommon but associated with poor prognosis. No significant predictive role for p53 status was detected. Trial registration: NCT00174655.
Abstract: AbstractBackground. Patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER)-2(+) breast cancer are at particularly high risk for brain metastases; however, the biological basis is not fully understood. Using a novel HER-2 assay, we investigated the correlation between quantitative HER-2 expression in primary breast cancers and the time to brain metastasis (TTBM) in HER-2(+) advanced breast cancer patients treated with trastuzumab.Methods. The study group included 142 consecutive patients who were administered trastuzumab-based therapy for HER-2(+) metastatic breast cancer. HER-2/neu gene copy number was quantified as the HER-2/centromeric probe for chromosome 17 (CEP17) ratio by central laboratory fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). HER-2 protein was quantified as total HER-2 protein expression (H2T) by the HERmark assay (Monogram Biosciences, Inc., South San Francisco, CA) in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumor samples. HER-2 variables were correlated with clinical features and TTBM was measured from the initiation of trastuzumab-containing therapy.Results. A higher H2T level (continuous variable) was correlated with shorter TTBM, whereas HER-2 amplification by FISH and a continuous HER-2/CEP17 ratio were not predictive (p = .013, .28, and .25, respectively). In the subset of patients that was centrally determined by FISH to be HER-2(+), an above-the-median H2T level was significantly associated with a shorter TTBM (hazard ratio, [HR], 2.4; p = .005), whereas this was not true for the median HER-2/CEP17 ratio by FISH (p = .4). Correlation between a continuous H2T level and TTBM was confirmed on multivariate analysis (HR, 3.3; p = .024).Conclusions. These data reveal a strong relationship between the quantitative HER-2 protein expression level and the risk for brain relapse in HER-2(+) advanced breast cancer patients. Consequently, quantitative assessment of HER-2 protein expression may inform and facilitate refinements in therapeutic treatment strategies for selected subpopulations of patients in this group.
Abstract: This multicenter phase II trial was designed to evaluate the activity of lapatinib in metastatic breast cancer patients with HER2-negative primary tumors and HER2-positive circulating tumor cells (CTCs). In this study MBC patients with HER2-negative primary tumors and HER2-positive CTCs previously treated with at least a first-line therapy for metastatic disease received lapatinib 1500 mg/day. The CellSearch System(®) was used for CTCs isolation and bio-characterization. HER2 status was assessed on CTCs by immunofluorescence. A case was defined as CTCs positive if ≥2 CTC/7.5 ml of blood were isolated and HER2-positive if ≥50 % of CTCs were HER2-positive. 139 HER2-negative patients were screened, 96 patients were positive for CTCs (mean number of CTCs: 85; median number of CTCs: 19; range 2-1637). Seven of the 96 patients (7 %) had ≥50 % HER2-positive CTCs and were eligible for treatment with lapatinib. No objective tumor responses occurred in this population. In one patient, disease stabilization lasting 254 days (8.5 months) was observed. From the findings of this study, we concluded that a subset of patients with a HER2-negative primary tumor presents HER2-positive CTCs during disease progression, although the HER2 shift rate seems to be lower than previously reported. Despite the lack of objective response, the durable disease stabilization observed in one patient cannot rule out the hypothesis that lapatinib may have some activity in this patient population. However, considering that only 1/139 screened patients may potentially have derived benefit from this approach, future trials designed according to the presented strategy cannot be recommended.
Abstract: Summary Using multiple historical trials with surrogate and true endpoints, we consider various models to predict the effect of treatment on a true endpoint in a target trial in which only a surrogate endpoint is observed. This predicted result is computed using (1) a prediction model (mixture, linear, or principal stratification) estimated from historical trials and the surrogate endpoint of the target trial and (2) a random extrapolation error estimated from successively leaving out each trial among the historical trials. The method applies to either binary outcomes or survival to a particular time that is computed from censored survival data. We compute a 95% confidence interval for the predicted result and validate its coverage using simulation. To summarize the additional uncertainty from using a predicted instead of true result for the estimated treatment effect, we compute its multiplier of standard error. Software is available for download.
Abstract: Literature reviews of cancer trials have highlighted the need for better understanding of phase II statistical designs. Understanding the key elements associated with phase II design and knowledge of available statistical designs is necessary to enable appropriate phase II trial design.
Abstract: Anthracyclines, taxanes, and alkylating agents are among the most active agents in treatment of adjuvant breast cancer (BC), but the optimal schedule for their administration is unknown. We performed an adjuvant trial to compare the sequential regimen of doxorubicin with cyclophosphamide (AC) followed by docetaxel (ie, AC>T) with the combination regimen of TAC.
Abstract: Prediction of response to anthracycline-based therapy for breast cancer is challenging. We aimed to assess the value of HER2 and TOP2A as predictive markers of response to anthracycline-based adjuvant therapy in patients with early breast cancer.
Abstract: Trastuzumab improves survival in the adjuvant treatment of HER-positive breast cancer, although combined therapy with anthracycline-based regimens has been associated with cardiac toxicity. We wanted to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a new nonanthracycline regimen with trastuzumab.
Abstract: In recent years, significant advances have been made in the management of metastatic colorectal cancer. Traditionally, an improvement in overall survival has been considered the "gold standard"-the most convincing measure of efficacy. However, overall survival requires larger patient numbers and longer follow-up and may often be confounded by other factors, including subsequent therapies and crossover. Given the number of active therapies for potential investigation, demand for rapid evaluation and early availability of new therapies is growing. Progression-free survival is regarded as an important measure of treatment benefit and, compared with overall survival, can be evaluated earlier, with fewer patients and no confounding by subsequent lines of therapy. The present paper reviews the advantages, limitations, and relevance of progression-free survival as a primary endpoint in randomized trials of metastatic colorectal cancer.
Abstract: Ovarian cancer is leading cause of gynecologic cancer mortality in Canada. To date, overall survival (os) has been the most-used endpoint in oncology trials because of its relevance and objectivity. However, as a result of various factors, including the pattern of sequential salvage therapies, measurement of os and collection of os data are becoming particularly challenging. Phase ii and iii trials have therefore adopted progression-free survival (pfs) as a more convenient surrogate endpoint; however, the clinical significance of pfs remains unclear. This position paper presents discussion topics and findings from a pan-Canadian meeting of experts that set out to evaluate the relevance of pfs as a valid endpoint in ovarian cancer;reach a Canadian consensus on the relevance of pfs in ovarian cancer; andtry to address how pfs translates into clinical benefit in ovarian cancer.Overall, the findings and the group consensus posit that future studies should ensure that trials are designed to evaluate pfs, os, and other clinically relevant endpoints such as disease-related symptoms or quality of life;incorporate interim futility analyses intended to stop accrual early when the experimental regimen is not active;stop trials early to declare superiority only when compelling evidence suggests that a new treatment provides benefit for a pre-specified, clinically relevant endpoint such as os or symptom relief; anddiscourage early release of secondary endpoint results when such a release might increase the frequency of crossover to the experimental intervention.
Abstract: Progression-free survival (PFS) is not an optimal end point to evaluate therapeutic strategies in advanced colorectal cancer (ACRC). Therefore, composite end points have been proposed to evaluate a chemotherapy strategy when sequential treatments are available: duration of disease control (DDC) and time to failure of strategy (TFS). The goal of this study was to evaluate these alternative end points and their potential surrogacy for overall survival (OS).
Abstract: Data from a randomized multinational phase 3 trial of 320 adults with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) demonstrated that maintenance therapy with 3-week cycles of histamine dihydrochloride plus low-dose interleukin-2 (HDC/IL-2) for up to 18 months significantly improved leukemia-free survival (LFS) but lacked power to detect an overall survival (OS) difference.
Abstract: Bevacizumab with chemotherapy improves outcomes in patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC). The purpose of this trial was to determine the activity and safety profile of neoadjuvant bevacizumab with chemotherapy in women with locally advanced breast cancer (LABC).
Abstract: Docetaxel-trastuzumab (TH) is effective therapy for HER2-amplified metastatic breast cancer (MBC). Preclinical findings of synergy between docetaxel, carboplatin, and trastuzumab (TCH) prompted a phase III randomized trial comparing TCH with TH in patients with HER2-amplified MBC.
Abstract: In trials designed to evaluate new therapies for hematologic malignancies, end points such as leukemia-free survival are often used as surrogates for overall survival in acute leukemia. We aimed to assess whether leukemia-free survival is an acceptable statistical surrogate for overall survival when applied to remission maintenance therapy for acute myeloid leukemia.
Abstract: Biomarkers have a growing role in clinical trials. With the advent of the targeted therapy era, molecular biomarkers in particular are becoming increasingly important within both clinical research and clinical practice. This article focuses on biomarkers that anticipate the prognosis of individual patients ('prognostic' biomarkers) and on biomarkers that predict how individual patients will respond to specific treatments ('predictive' biomarkers, also called 'effect modifiers'). Specific Phase II and III clinical trial designs are discussed in detail for their ability to validate the biomarker and/or to establish the effect of an experimental therapy in patient populations defined by the presence or absence of the biomarker. Contemporary biomarker-based clinical trials in oncology are used as examples.
Abstract: Chemotherapy is the standard of care for advanced stages of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). TG4010 is a targeted immunotherapy based on a poxvirus (modified vaccinia virus Ankara) that codes for MUC1 tumour-associated antigen and interleukin 2. This study assessed TG4010 in combination with first-line chemotherapy in advanced NSCLC.
Abstract: Validated biomarkers predictive of response/resistance to anthracyclines in breast cancer are currently lacking. The neoadjuvant Trial of Principle (TOP) study, in which patients with estrogen receptor (ER) -negative tumors were treated with anthracycline (epirubicin) monotherapy, was specifically designed to evaluate the predictive value of topoisomerase II-α (TOP2A) and develop a gene expression signature to identify those patients who do not benefit from anthracyclines.
Abstract: IL-2 is a natural, T cell-derived cytokine that stimulates the cytotoxic functions of T and natural killer cells. IL-2 monotherapy has been evaluated in several randomized clinical trials (RCTs) for remission maintenance in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in first complete remission (CR1), and none demonstrated a significant benefit of IL-2 monotherapy. The objective of this meta-analysis was to reliably determine IL-2 efficacy by combining all available individual patient data (IPD) from 5 RCTs (N = 905) and summary data from a sixth RCT (N = 550). Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Cox regression models stratified by trial, with HR < 1 indicating treatment benefit. Combined IPD showed no benefit of IL-2 over no treatment in terms of leukemia-free survival (HR = 0.97; P = .74) or overall survival (HR = 1.08; P = .39). Analyses including the sixth RCT yielded qualitatively identical results (leukemia-free survival HR = 0.96, P = .52; overall survival HR = 1.06; P = .46). No significant heterogeneity was found between the trials. Prespecified subset analyses showed no interaction between the lack of IL-2 effect and any factor, including age, sex, baseline performance status, karyotype, AML subtype, and time from achievement of CR1 to initiation of maintenance therapy. We conclude that IL-2 alone is not an effective remission maintenance therapy for AML patients in CR1.
Abstract: Approximately 35% of HER2-amplified breast cancers have coamplification of the topoisomerase II-alpha (TOP2A) gene encoding an enzyme that is a major target of anthracyclines. This study was designed to evaluate whether TOP2A gene alterations may predict incremental responsiveness to anthracyclines in some breast cancers.
Abstract: PURPOSE: We previously validated disease-free survival (DFS) as a surrogate for overall survival (OS) in fluorouracil-based adjuvant colon cancer clinical trials. New therapies have extended survival after recurrence from 1 to approximately 2 years. We examined the possible impact of this improvement on the DFS/OS association. METHODS: The Adjuvant Colon Cancer Endpoints (ACCENT) data set of 20,898 patients was analyzed. In an exploratory fashion, time from recurrence to death in patients experiencing recurrence was extended using several algorithms, and the association of DFS after 3 years of median follow-up and OS after varying lengths of follow-up (median of 5, 6, and 7 years) was assessed. RESULTS: Seven thousand four hundred two patients (35%) experienced recurrence. Median time from recurrence to death was 24 months in the hypothetical data sets. When times from recurrence to death were doubled, the association between treatment effects on DFS and 5-year OS was modest (R(2) = 0.51 for both 2- and 3-year DFS) but remained strong for DFS and 6-year OS (R(2) = 0.67 for both 2- and 3-year DFS) and 7-year OS (R(2) = 0.70 for both 2- and 3-year DFS). The reduced DFS/OS association with extended survival after recurrence was greater in stage II than stage III patients. Multiple simulations provided consistent findings. CONCLUSION: Extended survival after recurrence reduces the association between treatment effects on 3-year DFS and 5-year OS, particularly in stage II patients; longer follow-up strengthens the association. In modern adjuvant trials, 6 or 7 years may be required to demonstrate OS improvements, further supporting DFS as the preferred primary end point for future adjuvant colon cancer clinical trials.
Abstract: Background: In age-related macular degeneration (ARMD) trials, the FDA-approved endpoint is the loss (or gain) of at least three lines of vision as compared to baseline. The use of such a response endpoint entails a potentially severe loss of information. A more efficient strategy could be obtained by using longitudinal measures of the change in visual acuity. In this paper we investigate, by using data from two randomized clinical trials, the mean and variance-covariance structures of the longitudinal measurements of the change in visual acuity.Methods: Individual patient data were collected in 234 patients in a randomized trial comparing interferon-alpha with placebo and in 1181 patients in a randomized trial comparing three active doses of pegaptanib with sham. A linear model for longitudinal data was used to analyze the repeated measurements of the change in visual acuity.Results: For both trials, the data were adequately summarized by a model that assumed a quadratic trend for the mean change in visual acuity over time, a power variance function, and an antedependence correlation structure. The power variance function was remarkably similar for the two datasets and involved the square root of the measurement time.Conclusions: The similarity of the estimated variance functions and correlation structures for both datasets indicates that these aspects may be a genuine feature of the measurements of changes in visual acuity in patients with ARMD. The feature can be used in the planning and analysis of trials that use visual acuity as the clinical endpoint of interest. Copyright (c) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Abstract: Biomarkers and surrogate end points have great potential for use in clinical oncology, but their statistical validation presents major challenges, and few biomarkers have been robustly confirmed. Provisional supportive data for prognostic biomarkers, which predict the likely outcome independently of treatment, is possible through small retrospective studies, but it has proved more difficult to achieve robust multi-site validation. Predictive biomarkers, which predict the likely response of patients to specific treatments, require more extensive data for validation, specifically large randomized clinical trials and meta-analysis. Surrogate end points are even more challenging to validate, and require data demonstrating both that the surrogate is prognostic for the true end point independently of treatment, and that the effect of treatment on the surrogate reliably predicts its effect on the true end point. In this Review, we discuss the nature of prognostic and predictive biomarkers and surrogate end points, and examine the statistical techniques and designs required for their validation. In cases where the statistical requirements for validation cannot be rigorously achieved, the biological plausibility of an end point or surrogate might support its adoption. No consensus yet exists on processes or standards for pragmatic evaluation and adoption of biomarkers and surrogate end points in the absence of robust statistical validation.
Abstract: For a number of reasons, surrogate endpoints are considered instead of the so-called true endpoint in clinical studies, especially when such endpoints can be measured earlier, and/or with less burden for patient and experimenter. Surrogate endpoints may occur more frequently than their standard counterparts. For these reasons, it is not surprising that the use of surrogate endpoints in clinical practice is increasing. Building on the seminal work of Prentice(1) and Freedman et al.,(2) Buyse et al. (3) framed the evaluation exercise within a meta-analytic setting, in an effort to overcome difficulties that necessarily surround evaluation efforts based on a single trial. In this article, we review the meta-analytic approach for continuous outcomes, discuss extensions to non-normal and longitudinal settings, as well as proposals to unify the somewhat disparate collection of validation measures currently on the market. Implications for design and for predicting the effect of treatment in a new trial, based on the surrogate, are discussed. A case study in schizophrenia is analysed.
Abstract: PURPOSE: To conduct meta-analyses of randomized trials of aromatase inhibitors (AIs) compared with tamoxifen either as initial monotherapy (cohort 1) or after 2 to 3 years of tamoxifen (cohort 2). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data submitted to the Early Breast Cancer Trialists' Collaborative Group were used in separate meta-analyses of two cohorts. Primary analyses involve postmenopausal women with tumors reported to be estrogen receptor positive. Log-rank P values are two-sided. RESULTS: Cohort 1 comprised 9,856 patients with a mean of 5.8 years of follow-up. At 5 years, AI therapy was associated with an absolute 2.9% (SE = 0.7%) decrease in recurrence (9.6% for AI v 12.6% for tamoxifen; 2P < .00001) and a nonsignificant absolute 1.1% (SE = 0.5%) decrease in breast cancer mortality (4.8% for AI v 5.9% for tamoxifen; 2P = .1). Cohort 2 comprised 9,015 patients with a mean of 3.9 years of follow-up. At 3 years from treatment divergence (ie, approximately 5 years after starting hormonal treatment), AI therapy was associated with an absolute 3.1% (SE = 0.6%) decrease in recurrence (5.0% for AI v 8.1% for tamoxifen since divergence; 2P < .00001) and an absolute 0.7% (SE = 0.3%) decrease in breast cancer mortality (1.7% for AI v 2.4% for tamoxifen since divergence; 2P = .02). There was no convincing heterogeneity in the proportional recurrence reduction with respect to age, nodal status, tumor grade, or progesterone receptor status and no indication of an increase in nonbreast deaths with AIs in either cohort. CONCLUSION AIs produce significantly lower recurrence rates compared with tamoxifen, either as initial monotherapy or after 2 to 3 years of tamoxifen. Additional follow-up will provide clearer information on long-term survival.
Abstract: Significant achievements in the systemic treatment of both advanced breast cancer and advanced colorectal cancer over the past 10 years have led to a growing number of drugs, combinations, and sequences to be tested. The choice of surrogate and true end points has become a critical issue and one that is currently the subject of much debate. Many recent randomized trials in solid tumor oncology have used progression-free survival (PFS) as the primary end point. PFS is an attractive end point because it is available earlier than overall survival (OS) and is not influenced by second-line treatments. PFS is now undergoing validation as a surrogate end point in various disease settings. The question of whether PFS can be considered an acceptable surrogate end point depends not only on formal validation studies but also on a standardized definition and unbiased ascertainment of disease progression in clinical trials. In advanced breast cancer, formal validation of PFS as a surrogate for OS has so far been unsuccessful. In advanced colorectal cancer, in contrast, current evidence indicates that PFS is a valid surrogate for OS after first-line treatment with chemotherapy. The other question is whether PFS sufficiently reflects clinical benefit to be considered a true end point in and of itself.
Abstract: This paper extends the idea behind the U-statistic of the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test to perform generalized pairwise comparisons between two groups of observations. The observations are outcomes captured by a single variable, possibly repeatedly measured, or by several variables of any type (e.g. discrete, continuous, time to event). When several outcomes are considered, they must be prioritized. We show that generalized pairwise comparisons extend well-known non-parametric tests, and illustrate their interest using data from two randomized clinical trials. We also show that they lead to a general measure of the difference between the groups called the 'proportion in favor of treatment', denoted Δ, which is related to traditional measures of treatment effect for a single variable.
Abstract: With the availability of several lines of therapy, overall survival (OS) has been progressively substituted by progression-free survival (PFS) and other tumor-based assessments as the primary efficacy end point in advanced breast cancer trials. We investigated the frequency and determinants of OS gain in the recent literature and the duration of post-progression survival (PPS) according to treatment type and line. We used PubMed to search for phase III trials on systemic antineoplastic therapies published between January 1998 and December 2007 in 11 leading journals. The primary end point was the one stated explicitly, used for N calculation, or listed first. Significant gain was considered as reported P < .05 for superiority trials or proven non-inferiority or equivalence otherwise. We retrieved 76 trials, and gain in OS was reported in 15 cases (19.7%). The median gain in OS was 4.7 months, and such gain was more frequent when there was significant gain in PFS and in second-line and third-line trials. The average median OS was 20.7 months in trials assessing first-line chemotherapy and 31.1 months with first-line hormone therapy. The median proportion of OS accounted for by PPS was significantly longer in hormone therapy trials than in chemotherapy trials, but varied little across treatment lines. A statistically significant gain in OS has been reported in about one in five recent phase III trials in advanced breast cancer, despite the fact that OS has seldom been used as the primary end point. PPS represents nearly two thirds of patient survival after on-trial disease progression.
Abstract: The authors mention the existing methods to perform meta-analysis, and show that meta-analysis based on individual patient data (IPD meta-analyses) are the most reliable. Taking the example of 4 successive meta-analysis of clinical trials in advanced colorectal cancer, they illustrate the possibilities of IPD meta-analysis. They conclude that meta-analysis are a powerful tool not only to confirm small differences between treatment modalities, but also to generate hypothesis, to perform exploratory subgroup analysis, and to study potential surrogate endpoints.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: These analyses compare the safety and efficacy of 2 forms (levogyre [L] and dextro-levogyre [DL]) of leucovorin (LV) when used with 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) for the adjuvant treatment of patients with stage II and III colon cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The analysis used primary efficacy and safety data of a phase III trial comparing monthly 5-FU/LV or bimonthly LV5FU2 (LV 200 mg/m2 intravenously over 2 hours followed by 5-FU 400 mg/m2 bolus and then 600 mg/m2 continuous intravenous infusion over 22 hours, days 1 and 2, every 2 weeks). In both regimens, depending on the choice made by each center, patients received either DL-LV (200 mg/m2) or L-LV (100 mg/m2). RESULTS: L-LV and DL-LV were administered respectively to 60% (n = 519) and 40% (n = 357) of the patients. Important prognostic characteristics were well balanced between the 2 groups. The proportion of any grade 3/4 toxicity was 20% in the L-LV group and 17% in the DL-LV group. There was no statistical difference in terms of toxicity between the 2 groups. The median follow-up time was 6.1 years. There were no statistically significant differences between L-LV and DL-LV in terms of either disease-free survival (66.7% vs. 67.2%; hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; 95% CI, 0.82-1.31; P = .78) or overall survival (78.2% vs. 74.5%; HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 0.97-1.69; P = .078). CONCLUSION: This study supports the use of either DL (200 mg/m2) or L (100 mg/m2) LV in association with 5-FU as adjuvant treatment of patients with colon cancer.
Abstract: CONTEXT: Despite potentially curative resection of stomach cancer, 50% to 90% of patients die of disease relapse. Numerous randomized clinical trials (RCTs) have compared surgery alone with adjuvant chemotherapy, but definitive evidence is lacking. OBJECTIVES: To perform an individual patient-level meta-analysis of all RCTs to quantify the potential benefit of chemotherapy after complete resection over surgery alone in terms of overall survival and disease-free survival, and to further study the role of regimens, including monochemotherapy; combined chemotherapy with fluorouracil derivatives, mitomycin C, and other therapies but no anthracyclines; combined chemotherapy with fluorouracil derivatives, mitomycin C, and anthracyclines; and other treatments. DATA SOURCES: Data from all RCTs comparing adjuvant chemotherapy with surgery alone in patients with resectable gastric cancer. We searched MEDLINE (up to 2009), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, the National Institutes of Health trial registry, and published proceedings from major oncologic and gastrointestinal cancer meetings. STUDY SELECTION: All RCTs closed to patient recruitment before 2004 were eligible. Trials testing radiotherapy; neoadjuvant, perioperative, or intraperitoneal chemotherapy; or immunotherapy were excluded. Thirty-one eligible trials (6390 patients) were identified. DATA EXTRACTION: As of 2010, individual patient data were available from 17 trials (3838 patients representing 60% of the targeted data) with a median follow-up exceeding 7 years. RESULTS: There were 1000 deaths among 1924 patients assigned to chemotherapy groups and 1067 deaths among 1857 patients assigned to surgery-only groups. Adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with a statistically significant benefit in terms of overall survival (hazard ratio [HR], 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.90; P < .001) and disease-free survival (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.75-0.90; P < .001). There was no significant heterogeneity for overall survival across RCTs (P = .52) or the 4 regimen groups (P = .13). Five-year overall survival increased from 49.6% to 55.3% with chemotherapy. CONCLUSION: Among the RCTs included, postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy based on fluorouracil regimens was associated with reduced risk of death in gastric cancer compared with surgery alone.
Abstract: The selection of patients with HER2-positive breast cancer for treatment with trastuzumab is based on the measurement of HER2 protein expression by immunohistochemistry, or the presence of HER2 gene amplification by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). By using multivariate analyses, we investigate the relationship between quantitative measurements of HER2 expression or HER2:HER2 dimers and objective response (Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors), time to progression, and breast cancer survival after trastuzumab treatment in a cohort of patients with metastatic breast cancer who were primarily selected for treatment by FISH. The VeraTag assay, a proximity-based assay designed to quantitate protein expression and dimerization in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue specimens, was used to measure HER2 protein expression and HER2:HER2 dimer levels. In a Cox proportional hazards analysis, higher HER2 expression or HER2:HER2 dimer levels were both correlated with longer survival (P=0.0058 and P=0.016, respectively) after treatment with trastuzumab in a population of patients that were either FISH-positive (90%) or immunohistochemistry 3+ (10%). Patients with higher levels of HER2 expression or HER2:HER2 dimers seemed to derive little benefit from the addition of concomitant chemotherapy to trastuzumab, whereas those with lower levels benefited significantly [interaction test P=0.43 (HER2 expression), P=0.27 (HER2:HER2 dimers)]. These data suggest that more quantitative or functional measurements of HER2 status may facilitate the development of more personalized treatment strategies for patients with metastatic breast cancer.
Abstract: PURPOSE: Limited data are available on the time course of treatment failures (recurrence and/or death), the nature and duration of adjuvant treatment benefit, and long-term recurrence rates in patients with resected stage II and III colon cancer. METHODS: The data set assembled by the Adjuvant Colon Cancer Endpoints Group, a collection of individual patient data from 18 trials and more than 20,800 patients testing fluorouracil-based adjuvant therapy in patients with stage II or III colon cancer, was analyzed. RESULTS: A significant overall survival (OS) benefit of adjuvant therapy was consistent over the 8-year follow-up period. The risk of recurrence in patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy never exceeds that of control patients, signifying that adjuvant therapy cures some patients, as opposed to delaying recurrence. After 5 years, recurrence rates were less than 1.5% per year, and after 8 years, they were less than 0.5% per year. Significant disease-free survival (DFS) benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy was observed in the first 2 years. After 2 years, DFS rates in treated and control patients were not significantly different, and after 4 years, no trend toward benefit was demonstrated. This benefit was primarily driven by patients with stage III disease. CONCLUSION: Adjuvant chemotherapy provides significant DFS benefit, primarily by reducing the recurrence rate, within the first 2 years of adjuvant therapy with some benefit in years 3 to 4, translating into long-term OS benefit. This reflects the curative role of chemotherapy in the adjuvant setting. After 5 years, recurrence rates in patients treated on clinical trials are low, and after 8 years, they are minimal; thus, long-term follow-up for recurrence is of little value.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Alkaline phosphatase (ALP) is a strong prognostic factor in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (MCRC). Patients with ALP more than three times the upper limit of normal (ULN) were excluded from our previous studies evaluating chemotherapy. An exploratory cohort of patients with ALP >3 ULN was included in the OPTIMOX1 study. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Previously untreated patients with MCRC were randomized to FOLFOX4 until progression (arm A) or FOLFOX7 for six cycles, maintenance without oxaliplatin for 12 cycles and reintroduction of FOLFOX7 (arm B). Patients were stratified according to ALP level <or=3 ULN versus 3-5 ULN. RESULTS: Among the 620 patients in OPTIMOX1 study, 63 had ALP 3-5 ULN; 33 in arm A and 30 in arm B. The response rate in these patients was 56% versus 59% in patients with ALP <or=3 ULN. Median progression-free survival and overall survival were, respectively, 6.4 and 11.5 months in patients with ALP 3-5 ULN and 9.0 and 21.1 months in patients with ALP <or=3 ULN. Thirty-three percent of the patients in the cohort experienced grade 3/4 toxicity. CONCLUSION: Both FOLFOX regimens achieved high tumor response rates and offer good palliation in MCRC patients with a poor prognosis.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: The gold standard endpoint in randomised trials of locally advanced head and neck squamous-cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is overall survival. Our objective was to study whether duration of locoregional control or event-free survival (EFS) could be considered as surrogate endpoints to estimate the effect of radiotherapy and chemotherapy on overall survival. This would allow a reduction in the duration and cost of the development of new treatments. METHODS: Individual patient data from 104 trials (22 744 patients), with 116 treatment-control comparisons, from four meta-analyses on hyperfractionated or accelerated radiotherapy and concomitant, induction, or adjuvant chemotherapy were analysed. Duration of locoregional control was defined as the time from randomisation to the first locoregional event and EFS as the time to any first event (ie, locoregional relapse, distant recurrence, or death). At the individual level, a rank correlation coefficient between the surrogate endpoint and overall survival was used to assess surrogacy; at the trial level, a correlation coefficient R between treatment effects was used. FINDINGS: At the individual level, overall survival was more strongly correlated with EFS (range of correlations 0.82-0.90) than with locoregional control (0.65-0.76). For radiotherapy, treatment effects on both locoregional control and EFS were strongly correlated with those on overall survival (R=0.94 and 0.98, respectively). For chemotherapy, the correlations between treatment effects on EFS and overall survival were stronger than those between locoregional control and overall survival (range of R 0.79-0.93 vs 0.53-0.84, respectively). INTERPRETATION: EFS is a better correlate with overall survival than locoregional control and could be used as a surrogate for overall survival to assess the treatment effect of radiotherapy and chemotherapy in randomised trials of locally advanced HNSCC.
Abstract: Meta-analysis is the statistical process of combining information from several studies addressing the same question. Meta-analyses based on individual patient data are far more reliable and informative than those based on summary statistics obtained from the trialists or extracted from the published literature. Meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials may contribute to therapeutic progress through (1) establishing efficacy benefits beyond a reasonable doubt, (2) identifying sources of heterogeneity between trials, (3) studying subsets reliably, (4) confirming differences in toxicity profiles, (5) evaluating the cost-effectiveness of experimental therapies, (6) assessing surrogate endpoints, and (7) addressing ancillary questions. All of these potential contributions are illustrated with examples in early and advanced colorectal cancer.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Early radiological tumor shrinkage may be associated with better long-term outcome in chemorefractory metastatic colorectal cancer (cmCRC) treated with cetuximab. We aimed at validating this in a large and independent series. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Of the 329 patients, 289 had a measurement both at baseline and week 6. Tumor shrinkage was expressed as a relative decrease compared with baseline and categorized according to a previously reported cut-off value ( approximately 10%) or used as a continuous variable. RESULTS: Median time to progression (TTP) was 6.1 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.1-7.2] versus 1.5 months (95% CI 1.4-1.7) in patients with [99 patients (34.3%)] or without [190 patients (65.7%)] tumor shrinkage, respectively, at week 6 [hazard ratio (HR) 0.23 (95% CI 0.17-0.32)]. The median overall survival (OS) was 13.7 (CI NA) versus 6.9 months (95% CI 6.1-7.7) [HR 0.21 (95% CI 0.14-0.32)], respectively. In a multivariate model, early tumor decrease outperformed skin toxicity as a predictor of long-term outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Tumor shrinkage at 6 weeks is a strong predictor of TTP and OS in cmCRC patients treated with cetuximab with or without irinotecan. This suggests early tumor shrinkage is the hallmark of efficacy of cetuximab and reliably identifies the subpopulation that is sensitive to the drug. Early tumor shrinkage can be used as a marker of efficacy in clinical practice, as such or in combination.
Abstract: This article discusses statistical approaches to the validation of surrogate biomarkers and endpoints. One approach that has been successfully used in oncology consists of estimating associations at two levels: the association between the surrogate and the clinical endpoint, called the individual-level association, and the association between the effects of treatment on the surrogate and the clinical endpoint, called the trial-level association. This approach requires data to be available from multiple randomized trials, such as in a meta-analysis of trials based on individual patient data. The approach is illustrated using randomized trials of first-line treatments for advanced tumors of the colon, breast, ovary, and prostate. Data from several meta-analyses suggest that progression-free survival is an acceptable surrogate in advanced colorectal and ovarian cancer, but not in breast and prostate cancer.
Abstract: Sargent et al (J Clin Oncol 23: 8664-8670, 2005) concluded that 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) can be considered a valid surrogate (replacement) endpoint for 5-year overall survival (OS) in clinical trials of adjuvant chemotherapy for colorectal cancer. We address the question whether the conclusion holds for trials involving other classes of treatments than those considered by Sargent et al. Additionally, we assess if the 3-year cutpoint is an optimal one. To this aim, we investigate whether the results reported by Sargent et al. could have been used to predict treatment effects in three centrally randomized adjuvant colorectal cancer trials performed by the Japanese Foundation for Multidisciplinary Treatment for Cancer (JFMTC) (Sakamoto et al. J Clin Oncol 22:484-492, 2004). Our analysis supports the conclusion of Sargent et al. and shows that using DFS at 2 or 3 years would be the best option for the prediction of OS at 5 years.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Docetaxel is more effective than doxorubicin for patients with advanced breast cancer. The Breast International Group 02-98 randomized trial tested the effect of incorporating docetaxel into anthracycline-based adjuvant chemotherapy and compared sequential vs concurrent administration of doxorubicin and docetaxel. METHODS: Patients with lymph node-positive breast cancer (n = 2887) were randomly assigned to one of four treatments: 1) sequential control (four cycles of doxorubicin at 75 mg/m2, followed by three cycles of cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and 5-fluorouracil [CMF]); 2) concurrent control (four cycles of doxorubicin at 60 mg/m2 plus cyclophosphamide at 600 mg/m2, followed by three cycles of CMF); 3) sequential docetaxel (three cycles of doxorubicin at 75 mg/m2, followed by three cycles of docetaxel at 100 mg/m2, followed by three cycles of CMF); 4) concurrent docetaxel (four cycles of doxorubicin at 50 mg/m2 plus docetaxel at 75 mg/m2, followed by three cycles of CMF). The primary comparison evaluated the efficacy of including docetaxel regardless of schedule and was planned after 1215 disease-free survival (DFS) events (ie, relapse, second primary cancer, or death from any cause). Docetaxel and control treatment groups were compared by log-rank tests, and hazard ratios (HR) of DFS events were calculated by Cox modeling. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: Due to a lower-than-anticipated rate of relapse, this analysis was performed after 5 years with 732 events. Patients in control arms had a 5-year DFS of 73% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 70% to 75%). Docetaxel treatment resulted in an improvement in DFS of borderline statistical significance compared with control treatment (HR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.74 to 1.00; P = .05). However, DFS in the sequential docetaxel arm was better than that in the concurrent docetaxel arm (HR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.69 to 1.00) and in the sequential control arm (HR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.64 to 0.98). CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating docetaxel into anthracycline-based therapy resulted in an improvement in DFS that was of borderline statistical significance. However, important differences may be related to doxorubicin and docetaxel scheduling, with sequential but not concurrent administration, appearing to produce better DFS than anthracycline-based chemotherapy.
Abstract: Two conditions must be fulfilled for an intermediate endpoint to be an acceptable surrogate for a true clinical endpoint: (1) there must be a strong association between the surrogate and the true endpoint, and (2) there must be a strong association between the effects of treatment on the surrogate and the true endpoint. We test whether these conditions are fulfilled for disease-free survival (DFS) and progression-free survival (PFS) on data from 20 clinical trials comparing experimental treatments with standard treatments for early and advanced colorectal cancer. The effects of treatment on DFS (or PFS in advanced disease) and OS were quantified through log hazard ratios (log HR), estimated through a Weibull model stratified for trial. The rank correlation coefficients between DFS and OS, and trial-specific treatment effects, were estimated using a bivariate copula distribution for these endpoints. A linear regression model between the estimated log hazard ratios was used to compute the "surrogate threshold effect", which is the minimum treatment effect on DFS required to predict a non-zero treatment effect on OS in a future trial. In early disease, the rank correlation coefficient between DFS and OS was equal to 0.96 (CI 0.95-0.97). The correlation coefficient between the log hazard ratios was equal to 0.94 (CI 0.87-1.01). The risk reductions were approximately 3% smaller on OS than on DFS, and the surrogate threshold effect corresponded to a DFS hazard ratio of 0.93. In advanced disease, the rank correlation coefficient between PFS and OS was equal to 0.82 (CI 0.82-0.83). The correlation coefficient between the log hazard ratios was equal to 0.99 (CI 0.94-1.04). The risk reductions were approximately 19% smaller on OS than on PFS, and the surrogate threshold effect corresponded to a PFS hazard ratio of 0.86. One trial with a large treatment effect on PFS and OS had a strong influence on the results in advanced disease. DFS (and PFS in advanced disease) are acceptable surrogates for OS in colorectal cancer.
Abstract: Errors in the design, the conduct, the data collection process, and the analysis of a randomized trial have the potential to affect not only the safety of the patients in the trial, but also, through the introduction of bias, the safety of future patients. Trial monitoring, defined broadly to include methods of oversight which begin when the study is designed and continue until it is reported in a publication, has a role to play in eliminating such errors. On-site monitoring can be extremely inefficient for the identification of errors most likely to compromise patient safety or bias study results. However, a variety of other monitoring strategies offer alternatives to on-site monitoring. Each new trial should conduct a risk assessment to identify the optimal means of monitoring, taking into account the likely sources of error, their consequences for patients, the study's validity, and the available resources. Trial management committees should consider central statistical monitoring a key aspect of such monitoring. The systematic application of this approach would be likely to lead to tangible benefits, and resources that are currently wasted on inefficient on-site monitoring could be diverted to increasing trial sample sizes or conducting more trials.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: During the last years, several groups have identified prognostic gene expression signatures with apparently similar performances. However, signatures were never compared on an independent population of untreated breast cancer patients, where risk assessment was computed using the original algorithms and microarray platforms. RESULTS: We compared three gene expression signatures, the 70-gene, the 76-gene and the Gene expression Grade Index (GGI) signatures, in terms of predicting distant metastasis free survival (DMFS) for the individual patient. To this end, we used the previously published TRANSBIG independent validation series of node-negative untreated primary breast cancer patients. We observed agreement in prediction for 135 of 198 patients (68%) when considering the three signatures. When comparing the signatures two by two, the agreement in prediction was 71% for the 70- and 76-gene signatures, 76% for the 76-gene signature and the GGI, and 88% for the 70-gene signature and the GGI. The three signatures had similar capabilities of predicting DMFS and added significant prognostic information to that provided by the classical parameters. CONCLUSION: Despite the difference in development of these signatures and the limited overlap in gene identity, they showed similar prognostic performance, adding to the growing evidence that these prognostic signatures are of clinical relevance.
Abstract: PURPOSE: Overall survival (OS) can be observed only after prolonged follow-up, and any potential effect of first-line therapies on OS may be confounded by the effects of subsequent therapy. We investigated whether tumor response, disease control, progression-free survival (PFS), or time to progression (TTP) could be considered a valid surrogate for OS to assess the benefits of first-line therapies for patients with metastatic breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Individual patient data were collected on 3,953 patients in 11 randomized trials that compared an anthracycline (alone or in combination) with a taxane (alone or in combination with an anthracycline). Surrogacy was assessed through the correlation between the end points as well as through the correlation between the treatment effects on the end points. RESULTS: Tumor response (survival odds ratio [OR], 6.2; 95% CI, 5.3 to 7.0) and disease control (survival OR, 5.5; 95% CI, 4.8 to 6.3) were strongly associated with OS. PFS (rank correlation coefficient, 0.688; 95% CI, 0.686 to 0.690) and TTP (rank correlation coefficient, 0.682; 95% CI, 0.680 to 0.684) were moderately associated with OS. Response log ORs were strongly correlated with PFS log hazard ratios (linear coefficient [rho], 0.96; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.19). Response and disease control log ORs and PFS and TTP log hazard ratios were poorly correlated with log hazard ratios for OS, but the confidence limits of rho were too wide to be informative. CONCLUSION: No end point could be demonstrated as a good surrogate for OS in these trials. Tumor response may be an acceptable surrogate for PFS.
Abstract: PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The purpose of this review is to discuss recently published work on endpoints for early and advanced colorectal cancer, as well as the statistical approaches used to validate surrogate endpoints. RECENT FINDINGS: Most attempts to validate surrogate endpoints have estimated the correlation between the surrogate and the true endpoint, and between the treatment effects on these endpoints. The correlation approach has made it possible to validate disease-free survival and progression-free survival as acceptable surrogates for overall survival in early and advanced disease, respectively. SUMMARY: The search for surrogate endpoints will intensify over the coming years. In parallel, efforts to either standardize or extend the endpoints or both will improve the reliability and relevance of clinical trial results.
Abstract: PURPOSE: Taxanes (paclitaxel or docetaxel) have been sequenced or combined with anthracyclines (doxorubicin or epirubicin) for the first-line treatment of advanced breast cancer. This meta-analysis uses data from all relevant trials to detect any advantages of taxanes in terms of tumor response, progression-free survival (PFS), and survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Individual patient data were collected on eight randomized combination trials comparing anthracyclines + taxanes (+ cyclophosphamide in one trial) with anthracyclines + cyclophosphamide (+ fluorouracil in four trials), and on three single-agent trials comparing taxanes with anthracyclines. Combination trials included 3,034 patients; single-agent trials included 919 patients. RESULTS: Median follow-up of living patients was 43 months, median survival was 19.3 months, and median PFS was 7.1 months. In single-agent trials, response rates were similar in the taxanes (38%) and in the anthracyclines (33%) arms (P = .08). The hazard ratios for taxanes compared with anthracyclines were 1.19 (95% CI, 1.04 to 1.36; P = .011) for PFS and 1.01 (95% CI, 0.88 to 1.16; P = .90) for survival. In combination trials, response rates were 57% (10% complete) in taxane-based combinations and 46% (6% complete) in control arms (P < .001). The hazard ratios for taxane-based combinations compared with control arms were 0.92 (95% CI, 0.85 to 0.99; P = .031) for PFS and 0.95 (95% CI, 0.88 to 1.03; P = .24) for survival. CONCLUSION: Taxanes were significantly worse than single-agent anthracyclines in terms of PFS, but not in terms of response rates or survival. Taxane-based combinations were significantly better than anthracycline-based combinations in terms of response rates and PFS, but not in terms of survival.
Abstract: PURPOSE: Recently, several prognostic gene expression signatures have been identified; however, their performance has never been evaluated according to the previously described molecular subtypes based on the estrogen receptor (ER) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), and their biological meaning has remained unclear. Here we aimed to perform a comprehensive meta-analysis integrating both clinicopathologic and gene expression data, focusing on the main molecular subtypes. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We developed gene expression modules related to key biological processes in breast cancer such as tumor invasion, immune response, angiogenesis, apoptosis, proliferation, and ER and HER2 signaling, and then analyzed these modules together with clinical variables and several prognostic signatures on publicly available microarray studies (>2,100 patients). RESULTS: Multivariate analysis showed that in the ER+/HER2- subgroup, only the proliferation module and the histologic grade were significantly associated with clinical outcome. In the ER-/HER2- subgroup, only the immune response module was associated with prognosis, whereas in the HER2+ tumors, the tumor invasion and immune response modules displayed significant association with survival. Proliferation was identified as the most important component of several prognostic signatures, and their performance was limited to the ER+/HER2- subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: Although proliferation is the strongest parameter predicting clinical outcome in the ER+/HER2- subtype and the common denominator of most prognostic gene signatures, immune response and tumor invasion seem to be the main molecular processes associated with prognosis in the ER-/HER2- and HER2+ subgroups, respectively. These findings may help to define new clinicogenomic models and to identify new therapeutic strategies in the specific molecular subgroups.
Abstract: PURPOSE: In the OPTIMOX1 trial, previously untreated patients with advanced colorectal cancer were randomly assigned to two different schedules of leucovorin, fluorouracil, and oxaliplatin that were administered until progression in the control arm or in a stop-and-go fashion in the experimental arm. The randomly assigned treatment groups did not differ significantly in terms of response rate, progression-free survival, and overall survival (OS). However, the impact of oxaliplatin reintroduction on OS was potentially masked by the fact that a large number of patients did not receive the planned oxaliplatin reintroduction or received oxaliplatin after second-line therapy in both treatment groups. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A Cox model was fitted with all significant baseline factors plus time-dependent variables reflecting tumor progression, reintroduction of oxaliplatin, and use of second-line irinotecan. A shared frailty model was fitted with all significant baseline factors plus the number of lines of chemotherapy received by the patient and the percentage of patients with oxaliplatin reintroduction in the center. An adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was calculated for three reintroduction classes (1% to 20%, 21% to 40%, and > 40%), using centers with no reintroduction (0%) as the reference group. RESULTS: Oxaliplatin reintroduction had an independent and significant impact on OS (HR = 0.56, P = .009). The percentage of patients with oxaliplatin reintroductions also had a significant impact on OS. Centers in which more than 40% of the patients were reintroduced had an adjusted HR for OS of 0.59 compared with centers in which no patient was reintroduced. CONCLUSION: Oxaliplatin reintroduction is associated with improved survival in patients with advanced colorectal cancer.
Abstract: PURPOSE: Recently, a 76-gene prognostic signature able to predict distant metastases in lymph node-negative (N(-)) breast cancer patients was reported. The aims of this study conducted by TRANSBIG were to independently validate these results and to compare the outcome with clinical risk assessment. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Gene expression profiling of frozen samples from 198 N(-) systemically untreated patients was done at the Bordet Institute, blinded to clinical data and independent of Veridex. Genomic risk was defined by Veridex, blinded to clinical data. Survival analyses, done by an independent statistician, were done with the genomic risk and adjusted for the clinical risk, defined by Adjuvant! Online. RESULTS: The actual 5- and 10-year time to distant metastasis were 98% (88-100%) and 94% (83-98%), respectively, for the good profile group and 76% (68-82%) and 73% (65-79%), respectively, for the poor profile group. The actual 5- and 10-year overall survival were 98% (88-100%) and 87% (73-94%), respectively, for the good profile group and 84% (77-89%) and 72% (63-78%), respectively, for the poor profile group. We observed a strong time dependence of this signature, leading to an adjusted hazard ratio of 13.58 (1.85-99.63) and 8.20 (1.10-60.90) at 5 years and 5.11 (1.57-16.67) and 2.55 (1.07-6.10) at 10 years for time to distant metastasis and overall survival, respectively. CONCLUSION: This independent validation confirmed the performance of the 76-gene signature and adds to the growing evidence that gene expression signatures are of clinical relevance, especially for identifying patients at high risk of early distant metastases.
Abstract: PURPOSE: The traditional end point for assessing efficacy of first-line chemotherapies for advanced cancer is overall survival (OS), but this end point requires prolonged follow-up and is potentially confounded by the effects of second-line therapies. We investigated whether progression-free survival (PFS) could be considered a valid surrogate for OS in advanced colorectal cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Individual patient data were available from 10 historical trials comparing fluouracil (FU) + leucovorin with either FU alone (1,744 patients) or with raltitrexed (1,345 patients) and from three validation trials comparing FU + leucovorin with or without irinotecan or oxaliplatin (1,263 patients). Correlation coefficients were estimated in historical trials between the end points of PFS and OS, and between the treatment effects on these end points. Treatment effects on OS were predicted in validation trials, and compared with the observed effects. RESULTS: In historical trials, 1,760 patients (57%) had progressed or died at 6 months, and 1,622 (52%) had died at 12 months. The rank correlation coefficient between PFS and OS was equal to 0.82 (95% CI, 0.82 to 0.83). The correlation coefficient between treatment effects on PFS and on OS ranged from 0.99 (95% CI, 0.94 to 1.04) when all trials were considered to 0.74 (95% CI, 0.44 to 1.04) after exclusion of one highly influential trial. In the validation trials, the observed OS hazard ratios were within the 95% prediction intervals. A hazard ratio of 0.77 or lower in terms of PFS would predict a benefit in terms of OS. CONCLUSION: PFS is an acceptable surrogate for OS in advanced colorectal cancer.
Abstract: PURPOSE: The traditional end point for colon adjuvant clinical trials is overall survival (OS). We previously validated disease-free survival (DFS) after 3-year follow-up as an excellent predictor of 5-year OS results. Here we explore shorter term DFS and OS end points, as well as stage dependency. METHODS: Individual patient data from 18 phase III trials including 43 arms and 20,898 patients were pooled. Association measures included correlation of event rates within arms, correlation of hazard ratios (HRs) between arms, trial level significance comparisons (via log-rank testing), and a formal surrogacy model. RESULTS: DFS at earlier times was less accurate in predicting OS than 3-year DFS, but 2-year DFS remained a strong predictor. DFS with 1-year minimum follow-up demonstrated perfect negative predicted value; all trials negative at 1 year for DFS were negative for 5-year OS. OS with 3-year minimum follow-up was also an excellent predictor for 5-year OS; OS at earlier time points provided inaccurate prediction. The association between 3-year DFS and 5-year OS was greater for stage III patients; correlation of HR within trials was 0.92 (95% CI, 0.85 to 0.95) for stage III patients and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.44 to 0.80) for stage II patients. CONCLUSION: DFS outcomes after 2- or 3-year median follow-up are excellent predictors of 5-year OS. DFS outcomes are appropriate for trials in which the majority of patients are stage III. DFS after 2- or 3-year median follow-up should be considered as the primary end point in future colon adjuvant trials.
Abstract: PURPOSE: This randomized, 2 x 2 factorial study compared a semimonthly regimen (fluorouracil [FU] and leucovorin [LV] semi-monthly is LV5FU2) with a monthly regimen of FU and LV (mFU/LV) as well as 24 weeks versus 36 weeks of each regimen as adjuvant treatment of stage II and III colon cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: LV5FU2 was administered semimonthly for 2 days as racemate (dl) or levogyre (l-; 200 or 100 mg/m(2)) as a 2-hour infusion, followed by 400 mg/m(2) FU bolus and a 600-mg/m(2) FU 22-hour continuous infusion. FU and LV were administered monthly (mFU/LV) for 5 days as dl- or l-LV 15-minute infusion, followed by a 400 mg/m(2) FU 15-minute infusion. The primary end point was disease-free survival (DFS). RESULTS: Between September 1996 and November 1999, 905 patients with stage II (43%) and III (57%) colon cancer were enrolled. The median follow-up was 6 years. There was no statistically significant difference between mFU/LV and LV5FU2 in terms of DFS (150 v 148 events; hazard ratio [HR],1.01; 95% CI, 0.806 to 1.269; P = .94) and overall survival (OS; 104 v 103 events; HR,1.02; 95% CI, 0.77 to 1.34; P = .91). No statistical difference was observed between 24 or 36 weeks of chemotherapy. Median survival from metastatic relapse was 24 months. The survival of patients with metastatic relapse (n = 243) was significantly longer for patients with a longer time from random assignment to relapse (< 1, 1 to 2, >or= 2 years; log-rank test for trend P, .0497). CONCLUSION: DFS and OS were not statistically different between treatment groups and treatment durations. These data confirm the value of LV5FU2 as control arm in the Multicenter International Study of Oxaliplatin/5FU-LV in the Adjuvant Treatment of Colon Cancer and Pan-European Trials in Adjuvant Colon Cancer studies.
Abstract: PURPOSE: A number of microarray studies have reported distinct molecular profiles of breast cancers (BC), such as basal-like, ErbB2-like, and two to three luminal-like subtypes. These were associated with different clinical outcomes. However, although the basal and the ErbB2 subtypes are repeatedly recognized, identification of estrogen receptor (ER) -positive subtypes has been inconsistent. Therefore, refinement of their molecular definition is needed. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We have previously reported a gene expression grade index (GGI), which defines histologic grade based on gene expression profiles. Using this algorithm, we assigned ER-positive BC to either high-or low-genomic grade subgroups and compared these with previously reported ER-positive molecular classifications. As further validation, we classified 666 ER-positive samples into subtypes and assessed their clinical outcome. RESULTS: Two ER-positive molecular subgroups (high and low genomic grade) could be defined using the GGI. Despite tracking a single biologic pathway, these were highly comparable to the previously described luminal A and B classification and significantly correlated to the risk groups produced using the 21-gene recurrence score. The two subtypes were associated with statistically distinct clinical outcome in both systemically untreated and tamoxifen-treated populations. CONCLUSION: The use of genomic grade can identify two clinically distinct ER-positive molecular subtypes in a simple and highly reproducible manner across multiple data sets. This study emphasizes the important role of proliferation-related genes in predicting prognosis in ER-positive BC.
Abstract: Disease-free survival is increasingly being used as the primary endpoint of most trials testing adjuvant treatments in cancer. Other frequently used endpoints include overall survival, recurrence-free survival, and time to recurrence. These endpoints are often defined differently in different trials in the same type of cancer, leading to a lack of comparability among trials. In this Commentary, we used adjuvant studies in colon cancer as a model to address this issue. In a systematic review of the literature, we identified 52 studies of adjuvant treatment in colon cancer published in 1997-2006 that used eight other endpoints in addition to overall survival. Both the definition of these endpoints and the starting point for measuring time to the events that constituted these endpoints varied widely. A panel of experts on clinical research on colorectal cancer then reached consensus on the definition of each endpoint. Disease-free survival--defined as the time from randomization to any event, irrespective of cause--was considered to be the most informative endpoint for assessing the effect of treatment and therefore the most relevant to clinical practice. The proposed guidelines may add to the quality and cross-comparability of future studies of adjuvant treatments for cancer.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Adding a taxane to anthracycline-based adjuvant chemotherapy prolongs survival in node-positive patients but optimal dose and schedule remain undetermined. This study aimed to select a dose-dense regimen for further assessment in phase III studies. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Ninety-nine patients with node-positive invasive breast adenocarcinoma were randomly assigned to docetaxel (Taxotere) (T) 75 mg/m2, epirubicin (E) 75 mg/m2 and cyclophosphamide (C) 500 mg/m2 (TEC)x6, every 3 weeks; E 100 mg/m2, C 600 mg/m2 x 4, then T 100 mg/m2 x 4 (EC-->T) or the reverse sequence (T-->EC), every 2 weeks, with pegfilgrastim support. The primary end point was the incidence of grade 4 toxicity. RESULTS: Dose intensity was almost doubled with dose-dense regimens, compared with TEC. Twenty-seven patients experienced grade 4 toxicity: 26%, 40% and 18% with TEC, EC-->T and T-->EC, respectively, mainly neutropenia, but febrile neutropenia occurred only in 11%, 10% and 3%. Grade 3-4 nail disorders, hand-foot syndrome and peripheral neuropathy occurred in 46%, 73% and 68% of patients with TEC, EC-->T and T-->EC, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Dose-dense regimens yield more frequent and severe nonhematological toxic effects than standard dose TEC regimen. Though grade 4 toxicity rates appear acceptable with the T-->EC regimen, the incidence of grade 3-4 events makes it difficult to recommend either dose-dense regimen for further investigation.
Abstract: OBJECTIVE: A schema was recently proposed for assessing the levels of evidence for surrogate validity that included 4 domains: Target, Study Design, Statistical Strength, and Penalties. This report examines one component of the schema. It surveys the literature on methods of statistical validation of surrogate markers and compares these methods head-to-head using simulated datasets. METHODS: Simulated datasets (continuous, multivariate normal) were generated to capture 3 possible relationships of surrogate (S) and true (T) outcome (none, weakly positive, strongly positive) each applied to 4 treatment effects (effect on both surrogate and true outcome, effect on neither, effect on surrogate only, and effect on true outcome only). These datasets were analyzed using single and multitrial statistical approaches, and the results were provided to participants for discussion. RESULTS: The multitrial surrogate threshold effect seemed to capture best the requirement that surrogate validation is demonstrated by a treatment-associated change in the surrogate predicting a treatment-associated change in the outcome. CONCLUSION: There was general agreement that neither a single trial nor any of the single trial statistical methods was adequate to establish surrogate validity. These exercises also showed that summary statistics developed specifically to establish surrogate validity, such as the proportion of the effect explained, were problematic. A sizable statistical research agenda remains, which includes investigating the additional advantage obtained with modeling subject-level data compared to modeling with only trial-level data; and developing and testing multitrial statistical approaches robust to settings with only a few trials.
Abstract: OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between Mooren's ulcer and intestinal hookworm infestation in South India. DESIGN: Prospective observational case-control study. PARTICIPANTS: Fifteen patients with Mooren's ulcer and 30 age- and gender-matched controls seen at Aravind Eye Hospital. METHODS: Stool samples from the Mooren's ulcer patients and controls were collected and analyzed for presence of hookworm infestation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Prevalence of hookworm infestation in Mooren's ulcer patients and controls. RESULTS: There was a statistically significant correlation between intestinal hookworm infestation and the occurrence of Mooren's ulcer (P = 0.009). Retrospective exploratory subgroup analyses suggested that the correlation between intestinal hookworm infestation and the occurrence of Mooren's ulcer in men (P<0.0001) was stronger than the correlation in women, with no statistically significant difference being observed in the prevalence of hookworm infestation between women with Mooren's ulcer and female control subjects (P>0.99). Similarly, when both the Mooren's ulcer and the control subject groups were analyzed retrospectively by age > 50 years or age < 50, subjects with an age over 50 demonstrated a stronger correlation between hookworm infestation and Mooren's ulcer than controls (P = 0.017), whereas there was no statistically significant difference in the prevalence of hookworm infection between Mooren's ulcer subjects and control subjects < or = 50 (P = 0.31). CONCLUSION: Intestinal hookworm infestation appears to be associated with the development of Mooren's ulcer in South India. Although the power of our retrospective exploratory subgroup analyses was limited by multiple testing and small sample sizes, these data suggest further that the correlation between intestinal hookworm infestation and the development of Mooren's ulcer may be greatest in male patients with more advanced age.
Abstract: OBJECTIVE: There are clear advantages to using biomarkers and surrogate endpoints, but concerns about clinical and statistical validity and systematic methods to evaluate these aspects hinder their efficient application. Our objective was to review the literature on biomarkers and surrogates to develop a hierarchical schema that systematically evaluates and ranks the surrogacy status of biomarkers and surrogates; and to obtain feedback from stakeholders. METHODS: After a systematic search of Medline and Embase on biomarkers, surrogate (outcomes, endpoints, markers, indicators), intermediate endpoints, and leading indicators, a quantitative surrogate validation schema was developed and subsequently evaluated at a stakeholder workshop. RESULTS: The search identified several classification schema and definitions. Components of these were incorporated into a new quantitative surrogate validation level of evidence schema that evaluates biomarkers along 4 domains: Target, Study Design, Statistical Strength, and Penalties. Scores derived from 3 domains the Target that the marker is being substituted for, the Design of the (best) evidence, and the Statistical strength are additive. Penalties are then applied if there is serious counterevidence. A total score (0 to 15) determines the level of evidence, with Level 1 the strongest and Level 5 the weakest. It was proposed that the term "surrogate" be restricted to markers attaining Levels 1 or 2 only. Most stakeholders agreed that this operationalization of the National Institutes of Health definitions of biomarker, surrogate endpoint, and clinical endpoint was useful. CONCLUSION: Further development and application of this schema provides incentives and guidance for effective biomarker and surrogate endpoint research, and more efficient drug discovery, development, and approval.
Abstract: PURPOSE: To provide empirical evidence on the impact of on-site initiation visits on the following outcomes: patient recruitment, quantity and quality of data submitted to the trial coordinating office, and patients' follow-up time. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This methodological study was performed as part of a randomized trial comparing two combination chemotherapies for adjuvant treatment of breast cancer. Centers participating to the trial were randomized to either receive systematic on-site visits (Visited group), or not (Non-visited group). RESULTS: The study was terminated after two years, while the main randomized trial continued. Of the 135 centers that had expressed an interest in the trial, only 69 randomized at least one patient (35/68 in the Visited group, 34/67 in the Non-visited group). Almost two-thirds of the patients were entered by 17 centers (10 in the Visited group, seven in the Non-visited group) that accrued more than 10 patients each. None of the prespecified outcomes favored the group of centers submitted to on-site initiation visits (ie, mean number of queries par patient: 6.1 +/- 9.7 versus 5.4 +/- 6.4, respectively for the Visited and Non-visited groups). Spontaneous transmittal of case report forms, although required by protocol, was low in both randomized groups (mean number of pages per patient: 1.5 +/- 2.0 versus 2.1 +/- 2.3, respectively), with investigators submitting about one-third of the expected forms on time (29% and 39%, respectively). LIMITATIONS: This study could not evaluate the impact of repeated on-site visits on clinical outcomes. CONCLUSION: Systematic on-site initiation visits did not contribute significantly to this clinical trial.
Abstract: PURPOSE: In metastatic colorectal cancer, a combination of leucovorin (LV) and fluorouracil (FU) with oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) 4 is a standard first-line regimen. The cumulative neurotoxicity of oxaliplatin often requires therapy to be stopped in patients who are still responding. This study evaluates a new strategy of intermittent oxaliplatin treatment that is based on FOLFOX7, a simplified leucovorin and fluorouracil regimen with high-dose oxaliplatin. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Previously untreated patients were randomly assigned to either FOLFOX4 administered every 2 weeks until progression (arm A) or FOLFOX7 for six cycles, maintenance without oxaliplatin for 12 cycles, and reintroduction of FOLFOX7 (arm B). RESULTS: Six hundred twenty patients were enrolled, including an exploratory cohort of 95 elderly or poor prognosis patients. Median progression-free survival and survival times were 9.0 and 19.3 months, respectively, in patients allocated to arm A compared with 8.7 and 21.2 months, respectively, in patients allocated to arm B (P = not significant). Response rates were 58.5% with arm A and 59.2% with arm B. National Cancer Institute Common Toxicity Criteria grade 3 or 4 toxicity was observed in 54.4% of the patients in arm A v 48.7% of patients in arm B. From cycle 7, fewer patients experienced grade 3 or 4 toxicity in arm B. Grade 3 sensory neuropathy was observed in 17.9% of the patients in arm A v 13.3% of patients in arm B (P = .12). In arm B, oxaliplatin was reintroduced in only 40.1% of the patients but achieved responses or stabilizations in 69.4% of these patients. CONCLUSION: Oxaliplatin can be safely stopped after six cycles in a FOLFOX regimen. Further study is needed to fully evaluate oxaliplatin reintroduction.
Abstract: Part of the recent literature on the evaluation of surrogate endpoints starts from a multi-trial approach which leads to a definition of validity in terms of the quality of both trial-level and individual-level association between a potential surrogate and a true endpoint, Buyse et al. These authors proposed their methodology based on the simplest cross-sectional case in which both the surrogate and the true endpoint are continuous and normally distributed. Different variations to this theme have been implemented for binary responses, times to event, combinations of binary and continuous endpoints, etc. However, a drawback of this methodology is that different settings have led to different definitions to quantify the association at the individual-level. In the longitudinal setting; Alonso et al. defined a class of canonical correlation functions that can be used to study surrogacy at the trial and individual-level. In the present work, we propose a new approach to evaluate surrogacy in the repeated measurements framework, we also show the connection between this proposal and the previous ones reported in the literature. Finally, we extend this concept to the non-normal case using the so-called 'likelihood reduction factor' (LRF) a new validation measure based on some of the Prentice's criteria. We apply the previous methodology using data from two clinical studies in psychiatry and ophthalmology.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: A 70-gene signature was previously shown to have prognostic value in patients with node-negative breast cancer. Our goal was to validate the signature in an independent group of patients. METHODS: Patients (n = 307, with 137 events after a median follow-up of 13.6 years) from five European centers were divided into high- and low-risk groups based on the gene signature classification and on clinical risk classifications. Patients were assigned to the gene signature low-risk group if their 5-year distant metastasis-free survival probability as estimated by the gene signature was greater than 90%. Patients were assigned to the clinicopathologic low-risk group if their 10-year survival probability, as estimated by Adjuvant! software, was greater than 88% (for estrogen receptor [ER]-positive patients) or 92% (for ER-negative patients). Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated to compare time to distant metastases, disease-free survival, and overall survival in high- versus low-risk groups. RESULTS: The 70-gene signature outperformed the clinicopathologic risk assessment in predicting all endpoints. For time to distant metastases, the gene signature yielded HR = 2.32 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.35 to 4.00) without adjustment for clinical risk and hazard ratios ranging from 2.13 to 2.15 after adjustment for various estimates of clinical risk; clinicopathologic risk using Adjuvant! software yielded an unadjusted HR = 1.68 (95% CI = 0.92 to 3.07). For overall survival, the gene signature yielded an unadjusted HR = 2.79 (95% CI = 1.60 to 4.87) and adjusted hazard ratios ranging from 2.63 to 2.89; clinicopathologic risk yielded an unadjusted HR = 1.67 (95% CI = 0.93 to 2.98). For patients in the gene signature high-risk group, 10-year overall survival was 0.69 for patients in both the low- and high-clinical risk groups; for patients in the gene signature low-risk group, the 10-year survival rates were 0.88 and 0.89, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The 70-gene signature adds independent prognostic information to clinicopathologic risk assessment for patients with early breast cancer.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: In rectal cancer a high risk of local recurrence has been reported for patients treated by surgery alone. It is also recognised that 20%-40% of rectal cancer patients continue to develop distant metastases and die, even when a very low risk of local recurrence has been achieved with the use of preoperative radiotherapy and total mesorectal excision (TME). Hence, the current design of randomised trials in rectal cancer continues to use the standard end points of local control and survival. This strategy is time-consuming. The recently published EORTC 22921 trial, which compared radiotherapy with chemoradiotherapy and tested the role of postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy, has taken 14 years from planning to results. The aim of this review was to use the evidence from both phase II and phase III trials to provide a comprehensive survey of alternative clinical trial end points in rectal cancer, where preoperative chemoradiation has now become the standard treatment. We describe their strengths and weaknesses. Some are clearly defined, easy to assess and can be obtained early, because surgical resection usually takes place within 6-8 weeks of the completion of treatment. Some pathological response end points reflect biological activity, although their effect on survival has yet to be validated in randomised controlled trials. We will propose measurement and analytical techniques for minimising bias and intra- and inter-observer variability of the non-validated end points in the hope of basing these judgements on as firm a ground as possible. METHODS: A literature search identified both randomised and non-randomised trials of preoperative radiation therapy (RT) and chemoradiation therapy (CRT) in rectal cancer from 1993 to 2005. The aim was to find those studies that documented potential alternative end points. RESULTS: Pathological parameters have been used as early end points to compare studies of preoperative radiotherapy or chemoradiation. In the light of the German CAO/ARO/AIO-94 study, which demonstrated an improved therapeutic ratio for preoperative treatment, enthusiasm for preoperative chemoradiation in the management of rectal cancer is increasing. Current evidence cannot indicate whether the degree of response to chemoradiation (e.g. complete pathological response; downsizing the primary tumour; sterilizing the regional nodes; tumour regression grades or residual cell density) or the achievement of a curative resection (CRM/R0 resection) is the best early clinical end point. Problems with these end points include lack of structured measurement and analysis techniques to control for intra- and inter-observer variation and lack of validation as surrogates for long-term clinical end points such as local control and survival. However, retrospective studies in rectal cancer have confirmed a strong association between the presence of microscopic tumour cells within 1 mm of the CRM and increased risks of both local recurrence and distant metastases. Further end points of current clinical relevance for which adequate methodologies for assessment are lacking include sphincter sparing end points, and assessment of long-term toxicities, ano-rectal function and their specific impact on quality of life. Recommendations are made as to the most appropriate information, which should be documented in future trials. CONCLUSIONS: Pathological complete response following preoperative chemoradiation does not reliably predict late outcome. There are other events not mediated through this end point and there are also unintended effects (often an excess of non-cancer related deaths). Disease-free survival currently remains the best (because it is relatively quick) primary end point in designing randomised phase III studies of preoperative chemoradiation in rectal cancer, although it is necessary to control for postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy. However, the CRM status can substantially account for effects on disease-free and overall survival after chemoradiation, radiation or surgery alone. Hopefully, randomised controlled trials, which utilise these alternative clinical end points, will in future determine the precise percentages of the effect of different chemoradiation schedules on disease-free and overall survival.
Abstract: This Review describes the work conducted by the TRANSBIG consortium in the development of the MINDACT (Microarray In Node negative Disease may Avoid ChemoTherapy) trial. The goal of the trial is to provide definitive evidence regarding the clinical relevance of the 70-gene prognosis signature, and to assess the performance of this signature compared with that of traditional prognostic indicators for assigning adjuvant chemotherapy to patients with node-negative breast cancer. We outline the background work and the key questions in node-negative early-stage breast cancer, and then focus on the MINDACT trial design and statistical considerations. The challenges inherent in this trial in terms of logistics, implementation and interpretation of the results are also discussed. We hope that this article will trigger further discussion about the difficulties of setting up and analyzing trials aimed at establishing the worth of new methods for better selection of patients for cancer treatment.
Abstract: In many therapeutic areas, the identification and validation of surrogate endpoints is of prime interest to reduce the duration and/or size of clinical trials. Buyse et al. [Biostatistics 2000; 1:49-67] proposed a meta-analytic approach to the validation. In this approach, the validity of a surrogate is quantified by the coefficient of determination Rtrial2 obtained from a model, which allows for prediction of the treatment effect on the endpoint of interest ('true' endpoint) from the effect on the surrogate. One problem related to the use of Rtial2 is the difficulty in interpreting its value. To address this difficulty, in this paper we introduce a new concept, the so-called surrogate threshold effect (STE), defined as the minimum treatment effect on the surrogate necessary to predict a non-zero effect on the true endpoint. One of its interesting features, apart from providing information relevant to the practical use of a surrogate endpoint, is its natural interpretation from a clinical point of view.
Abstract: Uncontrolled cell proliferation is one of the hallmarks of cancer and the transition from the G1 to S phase is the most commonly reported cell cycle abnormality in tumors. It has been shown that the oncogenic activity of G1 cyclin E (CCNE) can be amplified by generating hyperactive low molecular weight forms (LMW) through elastase-mediated proteolytic processing. Neutrophil elastase (NE) and proteinase 3 (PR3) are 2 proteases that are aberrantly expressed in breast cancer cells and seem to be involved in cell proliferation. In this study, we evaluated the effect of the expression of these 2 proteases in addition to 2 potential intracellular targets of NE (CCNE1 and CCNE2) on clinical outcome in a population of 205 primary breast cancer patients. By univariate analysis, CCNE1, CCNE2, estrogen receptor and grade significantly predicted relapse free interval (RFI). NE and PR3 did not achieve statistical significance. In a multivariate analysis, elevated CCNE2 [hazard ratio (HR) 2.10, p = 0.008] predicted shorter RFI. In subgroup analyses of the tamoxifen-only treated patients, high CCNE1 levels predicted treatment resistance, while high levels of CCNE2 were associated with poor RFI in untreated patients. Investigation of the relationship between CCNE1, CCNE2 and NE did not show any impact on RFI. To conclude, this study was the first to evaluate these markers at the mRNA level by RT-PCR in a series of primary breast cancer patients, and our results confirmed the impact of high CCNE levels on clinical outcome in systemically untreated and of CCNE1 in tamoxifen-only treated early breast cancer patients.
Abstract: Many interesting changes are regularly brought into the methodology of cancer clinical trials. This position paper focuses on three topics which are felt to appear as recurrent problems which deserve more attention from the scientific community. RECIST guidelines were published five years ago and have since then been largely implemented and used in clinical trials. Although the criteria were initially designed for screening phase II trials they have been used also in most phase III studies aiming at determining the efficacy of new treatments. Problems have been identified some of which require further clarifications and others deserve further research which is being undertaken. Overall RECIST is well accepted and a revised version is being considered for 2007. Interim analysis is also an important issue revealed recently through many large adjuvant or advanced trials being prematurely discontinued at the time of an interim analysis. In most instances trials were stopped because of evidence of superiority of the investigational treatment over the standard treatment. Premature discontinuation of trial poses a number of challenges addressed in this paper. Finally, the consequences of the implementation of the EU clinical trial directive are being discussed. The conclusions are without equivoque. There is much less academic research conducted in Europe, there is a lot of discrepancy and inconsistency in the implementation of the directive across member states and there is no apparent direct benefit for the patients.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Adjuvant chemotherapy with 5-fluorouracil modulated by folinic acid, combined with oxaliplatin, has now become an accepted standard of care for patients with stage III colon cancer. In contrast, the use of adjuvant therapy for stage II patients remains controversial, and the identification of reliable prognostic factors to aid therapeutic decision making is crucial. METHODS: The authors critically review the results of clinical trials and meta-analyses investigating the value of adjuvant chemotherapy for stage II patients, emphasizing the heterogeneous nature of this population and the difficulty of performing clinical trials with sufficient power to reliably assess treatment efficacy. They also discuss the evidence concerning potential prognostic factors, particularly molecular markers. RESULTS: Available clinical trial data do not support the routine use of adjuvant chemotherapy for all stage II patients but suggest that it should be considered, particularly for certain high-risk patients. Recent guidelines advocate considering factors such as tumor differentiation, tumor perforation, number of lymph nodes examined, and T stage when assessing the likely benefit:risk ratio. Microsatellite instability and allelic imbalance seem to be strong predictors of good and poor prognosis, respectively, and in the near future, therapeutic decision-making models are likely to be further refined by the inclusion of such molecular markers. CONCLUSIONS: There is growing evidence that the prognosis of certain stage II patients with unfavorable prognostic factors can be improved by adjuvant chemotherapy, and increasingly refined tools are now available to define those most likely to benefit. Referral of stage II patients for individual assessment is strongly recommended.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Histologic grade in breast cancer provides clinically important prognostic information. However, 30%-60% of tumors are classified as histologic grade 2. This grade is associated with an intermediate risk of recurrence and is thus not informative for clinical decision making. We examined whether histologic grade was associated with gene expression profiles of breast cancers and whether such profiles could be used to improve histologic grading. METHODS: We analyzed microarray data from 189 invasive breast carcinomas and from three published gene expression datasets from breast carcinomas. We identified differentially expressed genes in a training set of 64 estrogen receptor (ER)-positive tumor samples by comparing expression profiles between histologic grade 3 tumors and histologic grade 1 tumors and used the expression of these genes to define the gene expression grade index. Data from 597 independent tumors were used to evaluate the association between relapse-free survival and the gene expression grade index in a Kaplan-Meier analysis. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: We identified 97 genes in our training set that were associated with histologic grade; most of these genes were involved in cell cycle regulation and proliferation. In validation datasets, the gene expression grade index was strongly associated with histologic grade 1 and 3 status; however, among histologic grade 2 tumors, the index spanned the values for histologic grade 1-3 tumors. Among patients with histologic grade 2 tumors, a high gene expression grade index was associated with a higher risk of recurrence than a low gene expression grade index (hazard ratio = 3.61, 95% confidence interval = 2.25 to 5.78; P < .001, log-rank test). CONCLUSIONS: Gene expression grade index appeared to reclassify patients with histologic grade 2 tumors into two groups with high versus low risks of recurrence. This approach may improve the accuracy of tumor grading and thus its prognostic value.
Abstract: PURPOSE: A traditional end point for colon adjuvant clinical trials is overall survival (OS), with 5 years demonstrating adequate follow-up. A shorter-term end point providing convincing evidence to allow treatment comparisons could significantly speed the translation of advances into practice. METHODS: Individual patient data were pooled from 18 randomized phase III colon cancer adjuvant clinical trials. Trials included 43 arms, with a pooled sample size of 20,898 patients. The primary hypothesis was that disease-free survival (DFS), with 3 years of follow-up, is an appropriate primary end point to replace OS with 5 years of follow-up. RESULTS: The recurrence rates for years 1 through 5 were 12%, 14%, 8%, 5%, and 3%, respectively. Median time from recurrence to death was 12 months. Eighty percent of recurrences were in the first 3 years; 91% of patients with recurrence by 3 years died before 5 years. Correlation between 3-year DFS and 5-year OS was 0.89. Comparing control versus experimental arms within each trial, the correlation between hazard ratios for DFS and OS was 0.92. Within-trial log-rank testing using both DFS and OS provided the same conclusion in 23 (92%) of 25 cases. Formal measures of surrogacy were satisfied. CONCLUSION: In patients treated on phase III adjuvant colon clinical trials, DFS and OS are highly correlated, both within patients and across trials. These results suggest that DFS after 3 years of median follow-up is an appropriate end point for adjuvant colon cancer clinical trials of fluorouracil-based regimens, although marginally significant DFS improvements may not translate into significant OS benefits.
Abstract: PURPOSE: Adjuvant therapy of colorectal cancer with oral fluorinated pyrimidines is attractive because of its ease of administration and good tolerability. The purpose of this meta-analysis is to assess the survival and disease-free survival benefits of treating patients after surgical resection of a primary colorectal tumor with oral fluoropyrimidines for 1 year. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This meta-analysis was performed on individual data from three randomized trials conducted by the Japanese Foundation for Multidisciplinary Treatment for Cancer involving a total of 5,233 patients with stages I to III colorectal cancer. RESULTS: The overall hazard ratio in favor of oral therapy was 0.89 for survival (95% CI, 0.80 to 0.99; P =.04), and 0.85 for disease-free survival (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.93; P <.001). Thus oral therapy reduced the risk of death by 11% and the risk of recurrence or death by 15%. There was no significant heterogeneity between trials, nor did the benefit of oral therapy depend on tumor stage (I, II, or III), tumor site (rectum or colon), patient age, or patient sex. CONCLUSION: Oral fluoropyrimidines improve disease-free survival and survival of patients after resection of early-stage colorectal cancer. These observations support the use of these agents alone after resection of early-stage disease, as well as further testing of oral agents in combination with new drugs that have recently shown antitumor activity in advanced colorectal cancer.
Abstract: PURPOSE: In metastatic colorectal cancer, phase III studies have demonstrated the superiority of fluorouracil (FU) with leucovorin (LV) in combination with irinotecan or oxaliplatin over FU + LV alone. This phase III study investigated two sequences: folinic acid, FU, and irinotecan (FOLFIRI) followed by folinic acid, FU, and oxaliplatin (FOLFOX6; arm A), and FOLFOX6 followed by FOLFIRI (arm B). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Previously untreated patients with assessable disease were randomly assigned to receive a 2-hour infusion of l-LV 200 mg/m(2) or dl-LV 400 mg/m(2) followed by a FU bolus 400 mg/m(2) and 46-hour infusion 2,400 to 3,000 mg/m(2) every 46 hours every 2 weeks, either with irinotecan 180 mg/m(2) or with oxaliplatin 100 mg/m(2) as a 2-hour infusion on day 1. At progression, irinotecan was replaced by oxaliplatin (arm A), or oxaliplatin by irinotecan (arm B). RESULT: Median survival was 21.5 months in 109 patients allocated to FOLFIRI then FOLFOX6 versus 20.6 months in 111 patients allocated to FOLFOX6 then FOLFIRI (P =.99). Median second progression-free survival (PFS) was 14.2 months in arm A versus 10.9 in arm B (P =.64). In first-line therapy, FOLFIRI achieved 56% response rate (RR) and 8.5 months median PFS, versus FOLFOX6 which achieved 54% RR and 8.0 months median PFS (P =.26). Second-line FOLFIRI achieved 4% RR and 2.5 months median PFS, versus FOLFOX6 which achieved 15% RR and 4.2 months PFS. In first-line therapy, National Cancer Institute Common Toxicity Criteria grade 3/4 mucositis, nausea/vomiting, and grade 2 alopecia were more frequent with FOLFIRI, and grade 3/4 neutropenia and neurosensory toxicity were more frequent with FOLFOX6. CONCLUSION: Both sequences achieved a prolonged survival and similar efficacy. The toxicity profiles were different.
Abstract: PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Clinical trials in breast cancer (BC) have seldom taken into consideration molecular heterogeneity, because most have been performed in unselected populations. Hence, their results provide an estimated average benefit for the entire BC population, which may not always be translated to subsets of patients with certain characteristics, let alone to individual patients. Further understanding and acknowledgment of heterogeneity is vital for the development of individualized therapy in BC. New approaches are needed for trial design, patient selection, and choice of endpoints (including surrogate markers). The neoadjuvant setting presents a unique opportunity to test new concepts in a previously untreated patient population, because they may yield preliminary answers in a shorter time than that required in adjuvant trials. RECENT FINDINGS: The importance of patient selection in the development of targeted agents is exemplified by trastuzumab in BC and of gefitinib in lung cancer. Ongoing innovative trials that investigate biologic hypotheses include the BIG-EORTC p53, TOP and FRAGRANCE trials (which study predictive factors for response), and the NNBC-3 and MINDACT trials (which study prognostic factors). SUMMARY: There is an urgent need to break from traditional clinical development and to incorporate new molecular knowledge and translational research in the design of clinical trials. The success of new approaches in BC research critically depends on well-conducted translational research linked to prospective clinical trials, and international collaboration, bringing together human and technological resources.
Abstract: PURPOSE: This randomized, noncomparative, parallel-group study was designed to evaluate the pathologic complete response (pCR) rate of combined doxorubicin plus paclitaxel (AP) and doxorubicin plus cyclophosphamide (AC) as neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with previously untreated breast cancer who were unsuitable for conservative surgery. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 200 patients with T2-3, N0-1, M0 disease were randomly assigned in a 2:1 ratio to receive preoperative chemotherapy with either doxorubicin 60 mg/m(2) plus paclitaxel 200 mg/m(2) as a 3-hour infusion (AP) or doxorubicin 60 mg/m(2) plus cyclophosphamide 600 mg/m(2) (AC) every 3 weeks for 4 courses followed by surgery. RESULTS: A pCR (eradication of invasive carcinoma in tumor and in axillary lymph nodes) was found in 16% and 10% of patients in the AP and AC arms, respectively, by study center pathologists, and in 8% and 6% of patients, respectively, by independent pathologists. Patients with pCRs tended to have unifocal disease, tumors with negative hormonal receptor status, and less differentiation (Scarff, Bloom, and Richardson scale grade 3). Breast-conserving surgery was performed in 58% and 45% of patients in the AP and AC arms, respectively. An objective clinical response was achieved in 89% of patients in the AP arm and 70% in the AC arm. At a median follow-up of 31 months, disease-free survival (DFS) was higher in patients who reached pCR versus those without pCR (91% v 70%). CONCLUSION: The encouraging pathologic and clinical responses of patients with breast cancer after neoadjuvant chemotherapy with doxorubicin plus paclitaxel warrant additional investigation of paclitaxel in the neoadjuvant setting of breast cancer management.
Abstract: We put a perspective on the strengths and limitations of statistical methods for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints. Whereas using several trials overcomes some of the limitations of a single-trial framework (Prentice, 1989, Statistics in Medicine 8, 431-440), arguably the evaluation of surrogate endpoints can never be done using only statistical evidence but such evidence should be seen as but one component in a decision-making process that involves, among others, a number of clinical and biological considerations. We briefly present a hierarchical framework that incorporates ideas from Prentice's work and is uniformly applicable to different types of surrogate and true clinical outcomes.
Abstract: The last couple of decades have seen a large amount of activity in the area of surrogate marker and surrogate endpoint validation, both from a clinical and a statistical perspective. Prentice made a pivotal contribution in the context of a single trial. Subsequently, the framework he proposed has been discussed, criticized, and extended. An important class of extensions considers several rather than a single trial. Recently, a lot of work has been done in this so-called hierarchical or meta-analytic framework. In this paper, we review both the single trial and the hierarchical framework. A number of applications, scattered throughout the literature, are brought together. We outline the statistical issues involved in trying to validate surrogate endpoints. Clearly statistical evidence should only be seen as a component in a decision making process that also involves a number of clinical and biological considerations.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: The adequacy of overall survival (OS) as study end point in phase III trials for advanced solid tumors is questionable. The present review highlights the limits of OS as study end point to evaluate the efficacy of new drugs. METHODS: Four phase III clinical trials comparing a fluorouracil-based regimen with the same regimen plus either CPT-11 or oxaliplatin in advanced colorectal cancer patients were reviewed. The primary aim of the critical assessment was to explain the lack of OS advantage observed in two of the four trials, despite the presence of increased response rate (RR) and time to progression (TTP). Four possible reasons for the lack of OS benefit (i.e. statistical power, cross-over, magnitude of the effect on RR and TTP, non-tumor-related deaths) were systematically reviewed in the trials, and the detectable 1-year OS difference, assuming a statistical power of 80%, was calculated for each. RESULTS: None of these reasons for the lack of OS advantage in presence of RR and TTP benefits convincingly explained the results of the evaluated trials. Three of the four trials had roughly the same statistical power to detect 1-year OS differences, while the fourth trial was underpowered to detect realistic OS differences. The lack of OS advantage observed in the two oxaliplatin trials is therefore likely fortuitous, and due to lack of statistical power. CONCLUSIONS: Although increase in OS remains the ultimate goal of many clinical trials, the choice of OS benefit as a mandatory requirement to register new compounds can lead to a serious underestimation of a drug's real efficacy.
Abstract: PURPOSE: The modulation of fluorouracil (FU) by folinic acid (leucovorin [LV]) has been shown to be effective in terms of tumor response rate in patients with advanced colorectal cancer, but a meta-analysis of nine trials previously published by our group failed to demonstrate a statistically significant survival difference between FU and FU-LV. We present an update of the meta-analysis, with a longer follow-up and the inclusion of 10 newer trials. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Analyses are based on individual data from 3,300 patients randomized in 19 trials on an intent-to-treat basis. Two trials had multiple comparisons, leading to a total of 21 pair-wise comparisons. FU doses were similar in both arms in 10 pair-wise comparisons, 15% to 33% higher in the FU-alone arm in six comparisons, and more than 66% higher in five comparisons. RESULTS: Overall analysis showed a two-fold increase in tumor response rates (11% for FU-LV v 21% for FU-LV v 11% for FU [corrected] alone; odds ratio, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.63; P <.0001) and a small but statistically significant overall survival benefit for FU-LV over FU alone (median survival, 11.7 v 10.5 months, respectively; hazards ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.87 to 0.94; P =.004), which were primarily seen in the first year. We observed a significant interaction between treatment benefit and dose of FU, with tumor response and overall survival advantages of FU-LV over FU-alone being restricted to trials in which a similar dose of FU was prescribed in both arms. CONCLUSION: This updated analysis demonstrates, on a large data set, that FU-LV improves both response rate and overall survival compared with FU alone and that this benefit is consistent across various prognostic factors.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the tolerance and efficacy of combining i.v. irinotecan, 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) and leucovorin (LV) with hepatic arterial infusion (HAI) of pirarubicin in non-resectable liver metastases from colorectal cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Thirty-one patients were included in a phase II trial with i.v. irinotecan/5-FU/LV administered every 2 weeks, combined with HAI pirarubicin 60 mg/m(2) on day 1 every 4 weeks. In most cases HAI was administered via a percutaneous catheter. RESULTS: The main grade 3/4 toxicity was neutropenia, encountered in 78% of the patients. When all patients were considered in the analysis, tumour response rate was 15 out of 31 [48%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 32% to 65%]. Liver resection was made possible in 11 patients (35%; 95% CI 21% to 53%). There were no toxic death. Median overall survival was 20.5 months, and median progression-free survival was 9.1 months. In patients with completely resected metastases, median overall survival was not reached and median progression-free survival was 20.2 months. CONCLUSION: The multimodality approach used in the present study was well-tolerated and yielded dramatic responses. An aggressive approach combining i.v. and HAI chemotherapy deserves further investigation.
Abstract: PURPOSE: A meta-analysis of randomized trials in advanced ovarian cancer showed a longer survival with cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, and cisplatin (CAP) than with cyclophosphamide and cisplatin (CP; P =.009). In contrast, the results of the large International Collaborative Ovarian Neoplasm Study (ICON2) showed no survival difference between CAP and carboplatin (P =.98). In this article, we show how these discrepant results can be reconciled through the estimation of expected survival curves. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A proportional hazards model, fitted to the meta-analysis data, was used to construct the expected survival curve for each treatment arm of the ICON2 trial. Expected survival curves were compared with observed survival curves in the ICON2 trial at all time points using a nonparametric test. RESULTS: The prognostic model for survival obtained in the meta-analysis included extent of residual disease, age, histologic grade, and International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage. When this model was applied to the ICON2 data, there was no difference between the expected and observed curves in the CAP arm. In contrast, the observed survival curve for carboplatin was far superior to the expected survival curve for CP (P <.01). CONCLUSION: These analyses provide indirect evidence that better results are achieved with carboplatin alone at an optimally tolerated dose, compared with the CP combination at a cisplatin dose of 50 to 60 mg/m2. The expected survival may provide valuable insight when direct comparisons between randomized groups yield discrepant results across different studies.
Abstract: PURPOSE: This randomized, 2 x 2 factorial study compared a semimonthly (LVFU2) with a monthly (FULV) regimen of fluorouracil and leucovorin and 24 versus 36 weeks of each regimen as adjuvant treatment of patients with stage II (Dukes' B2) and III (Dukes' C) colon cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: LVFU2 was administered semi-monthly for 2 consecutive days as dl- or l-leucovorin (200 or 100 mg/m2, respectively) as a 2-hour infusion, followed by a 400 mg/m2 FU bolus and 600 mg/m2 of FU as a 22-hour continuous infusion. FULV was administered monthly for 5 consecutive days as a 15-minute infusion of dl- or l-leucovorin, followed by 400 mg/m2 of FU as a 15-minute infusion. RESULTS: A total of 905 patients were randomly assigned. The median follow-up was 41 months. Disease-free survival was similar between the LVFU2 and FULV groups (127 v 124 events; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.04; P =.74) and between 24 and 36 weeks of therapy (128 v 123 events; HR = 0.94; P =.63). Analysis of overall survival showed a slight excess in the number of deaths in LVFU2 compared with FULV (73 v 59), but this difference was not statistically significant (HR = 1.26; 95% confidence interval, 0.90 to 1.78; P =.18). The most commonly observed grade 3 to 4 toxicities were neutropenia, diarrhea, and mucositis. Toxicities were significantly lower in the LVFU2 group (all toxicities, P <.001). CONCLUSION: Our data confirm that LVFU2 is less toxic than FULV. At a median follow-up of 41 months, no statistically significant difference could be detected in disease-free or overall survival between the treatment groups or treatment durations.
Abstract: Despite recent progress made in screening, prevention and adjuvant treatment of colorectal cancer, a large proportion of patients with this disease develop local recurrences or distant metastases. The management of these patients requires a multidisciplinary approach. Surgery must be performed whenever possible for metastases confined to the liver or lung. However, in most cases, chemotherapy and supportive care are the only feasible treatments. This review describes the research carried out in this field through randomized trials and meta-analyses aimed at optimizing the efficacy of front-line chemotherapy.
Abstract: In the three trials that tested screening with biennial fecal occult blood test (FOBT), follow-up of control patients for colorectal cancer (CRC) differed: in the Minnesota (United States) trial, the follow-up was equivalent to patients in the intervention groups, while in the Nottingham (United Kingdom) and Funen (Denmark) trials, control patients just received usual care. In the two latter trials, mortality from colorectal cancer was lower in subjects with interval colorectal cancer than in control subjects, while in the Minnesota trial, survival was equivalent in patients with interval CRC and in control patients. We examined whether better disease awareness of subjects allocated to the intervention group contributed to changes in colorectal cancer mortality observed in the FOBT trials. In the Nottingham and Funen trials, we evaluated the amount of colorectal cancer mortality reduction attributable to better survival of subjects in whom an interval colorectal cancer developed. In the Minnesota trial, we examined whether earlier detection of colorectal cancer in control subjects could explain the small (6%) reduction in colorectal cancer mortality observed with biennial FOBT. In the Nottingham and Funen trials, about one-quarter of the reduction in colorectal cancer mortality could be attributed to better awareness of patients with interval colorectal cancer. After correction for the effects of disease awareness, the absolute reduction in colorectal cancer mortality due to FOBT itself was 12% instead of 16%, and was no longer statistically significant (P>0.05). The results from biennial FOBT in the Minnesota trial published in 1993 would probably have been similar to those obtained in the Nottingham and Funen trials if disease awareness had not influenced the stage at diagnosis of colorectal cancers found in the control group. Better awareness of colorectal cancer contributes to the reduction of colorectal cancer mortality and should be encouraged. Because of a study design effect, the decrease in colorectal cancer mortality attributable to the FOBT itself is about 25% lower than that reported in the Nottingham and Funen trials. Therefore, recommending general population screening with biennial FOBT is still an open question.
Abstract: In the last decade, the Meta-Analysis Group in Cancer (formerly Advanced Colorectal Cancer Meta-Analysis Project) has systematically used a meta-analytic to reassess the efficacy and toxicity of various fluoropyrimidine regimens in advanced colorectal cancer, as well as to investigate related questions, such as the relation between tumor response and survival. In this paper, the basic methodology of meta-analysis is reviewed and the findings of seven successive meta-analyses conducted between 1989-2000 by the Meta-Analysis Group in Cancer are summarized. The interested reader can refer to the statistical appendix for details on the methodology used for all meta-analyses.
Abstract: The validation of surrogate endpoints has been studied by Prentice, who presented a definition as well as a set of criteria that are equivalent if the surrogate and true endpoints are binary. Freedman et al. supplemented these criteria with the so-called proportion explained. Buyse and Molenberghs proposed to replace the proportion explained by two quantities: (1). the relative effect, linking the effect of treatment on both endpoints, and (2). the adjusted association, an individual-level measure of agreement between both endpoints. In a multiunit setting, these quantities can be generalized to a trial-level measure of surrogacy and an individual-level measure of surrogacy. In this paper, we argue that such a multiunit approach should be adopted because it overcomes difficulties that necessarily surround validation efforts based on a single trial. These difficulties are highlighted.
Abstract: The benefit of adjuvant therapy, such as 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) combined with leucovorin, is a matter of debate for patients with Dukes' B colon cancer. Several approaches have been taken to address this issue. Initially, studies were conducted to assess treatment benefits in both Dukes' B and Dukes' C patients. These studies identified an overall benefit of adjuvant treatment and enrolled enough Dukes' C patients to determine a treatment benefit for adjuvant 5-FU/leucovorin in this subpopulation. However, the individual studies were insufficiently powered to detect a treatment benefit in Dukes' B patients. An analysis of four separate studies (National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel project) compared the benefit of adjuvant treatment in Dukes' B patients with that in Dukes' C patients and showed similar relative reductions in mortality and disease-free survival in Dukes' B and in Dukes' C patients. The Liver Infusion Meta-Analysis Group also reported similar relative benefits from a portal vein infusion of 5-FU-based chemotherapy in Dukes' B and Dukes' C patients. The International Multicenter Pooled Analysis of Colon Cancer Trials B2 study, which combined data from patients with Dukes' B colon cancer in five separate trials, failed to show a statistically significant benefit of adjuvant 5-FU/leucovorin compared with surgery alone. We review the advantages and limitations of different approaches to detect treatment benefits in patients with Dukes' B colon cancer, and we argue that there is a need for a meta-analysis of all adjuvant trials to reliably address this question.
Abstract: The aim of this randomized open-label study was to compare a bimonthly with a monthly regimen of 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) and leucovorin for the adjuvant treatment of colon and high-rectum adenocarcinoma. The bimonthly regimen was administered for 2 consecutive days every 14 days as d,L-leucovorin 200 mg/m2 or L-leucovorin 100 mg/m2 as a 2-hour infusion followed by 5-FU bolus of 400 mg/m2 and a 600 mg/m2 5-FU 22-hour continuous infusion (LVSFU2). In the monthly regimen, d,L-leucovorin 200 mg/m2 or L-leucovorin 100 mg/m2 15-minute infusion followed by a 400 mg/m2 15 minute 5-FU bolus was administered for 5 consecutive days every 28 days (FUFOL). Nine hundred five patients with recently resected stage B2 or C colon or high-rectum adenocarcinoma (inferior pole of the tumor subperitoneal) were recruited into the study. Patients were randomized in a 2 x 2 factorial design to receive either LV5FU2 or FUFOL for 24 or 36 weeks. Characteristics of the patients in the two different treatment groups were similar at baseline. Compliance was good. Mean 5-FU dose intensities were 930 mg/ m2/wk and 463 mg/m2/wk for LVSFU2 and FUFOL, respectively. The incidence of maximal grade III-IV toxicities for LVSFU2 and FUFOL was neutropenia 6% and 16% (P < .001), diarrhea 4% and 10% (P < .001), and mucositis 2% and 7% (P < .001), respectively. Maximum grade III-IV toxicities in the LV5FU2 treatment group were significantly lower than in the FUFOL group (10% v 26%; P < .001). Although patients in the LV5FU2 group received twice the dose of 5-FU compared with those in the FUFOL group, LV5FU2 was shown to be less toxic. Efficacy data will be available in 2001.
Abstract: A statistical definition of surrogate endpoints as well as validation criteria was first presented by Prentice. Freedman et al. supplemented these criteria with the so-called proportion explained. Buyse and Molenberghs pointed to inadequacies of these criteria and suggested a new definition of surrogacy based on (i) the relative effect linking the overall effect of treatment on both endpoints and (ii) an individual-level measure of agreement between both endpoints. Using data from a randomized trial, they showed how a potential surrogate endpoint can be studied using a joint model for the surrogate and the true endpoint. Whereas Buyse and Molenberghs restricted themselves to the fairly simple cases of jointly normal and jointly binary outcomes, we treat the situation where the surrogate is binary and the true endpoint is continuous, or vice versa. In addition, we consider the case of ordinal endpoints. Further, Buyse et al. extended the approach of Buyse and Molenberghs to a meta-analytic context. We will adopt a similar approach for responses of a mixed data type.
Abstract: The taxanes paclitaxel and docetaxel represent the most active chemotherapeutic agents developed for the treatment of advanced breast cancer in the last decade, and they are now being incorporated into adjuvant chemotherapy trials for lymph node-positive breast cancer with the hope of improving on the results achieved with CMF (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, 5-fluorouracil) or anthracycline-based regimens. So far, three randomized paclitaxel-based adjuvant clinical trials enrolling 3170 women (Cancer and Leukemia Group B [CALGB] 9344), 3060 women (National Surgical Adjuvant Project for Breast and Bowel Cancers [NSABP]-B28), and 524 women (M. D. Anderson), respectively, have been reported with respective median follow-up times of 52, 34, and 43 months. This article critically reviews these three studies and gives an overview of the many other randomized clinical trials, due to accrue more than 17 000 women, which are investigating the potential of taxanes in adjuvant breast cancer therapy. Given that the early promise of taxanes suggested by CALGB 9344 is not yet confirmed by the two other trials, only level 2 evidence has been reached to date in regard to a positive contribution of these agents to breast cancer outcome in the adjuvant setting. It is argued that level 1 evidence is highly desirable before adopting taxane-based regimens in standard practice. It is anticipated that a meta-analysis will be needed to comprehensively define the value of taxanes in early breast cancer, and a new model of international collaboration is proposed to find a balance between the need to offer new, more effective therapies to patients as soon as possible and the danger of drawing wrong, premature conclusions regarding the magnitude of benefit of a new regimen.
Abstract: Two meta-analyses were conducted to quantify the benefit of combining alpha-IFN to 5FU in advanced colorectal cancer in terms of tumour response and survival. Analyses were based on a total of 3254 individual patient data provided by principal investigators of each trial. The meta-analysis of 5FU +/- LV vs. 5FU +/- LV + alpha-IFN combined 12 trials and 1766 patients. The meta-analysis failed to show any statistically significant difference between the two treatment groups in terms of tumour response or survival. Overall tumour response rates were 25% for patients receiving no alpha-IFN vs. 24% for patients receiving alpha-IFN (relative risk, RR = 1.02), and median survivals were 11.4 months for patients receiving no alpha-IFN vs. 11.5 months for patients receiving alpha-IFN (hazard ratio, HR = 0.95). The meta-analysis of 5FU + LV vs. 5FU + alpha-IFN combined 7 trials, and 1488 patients. This meta-analysis showed an advantage for 5FU + LV over 5FU + alpha-IFN which was statistically significant in terms of tumour response (23% vs. 18%; RR = 1.26;P = 0.042), and of a borderline significance for overall survival (HR = 1.11;P = 0.066). Metastases confined to the liver and primary rectal tumours were independent favourable prognostic factors for tumour response, whereas good performance status, metastases confined to the liver or confined to the lung, and primary tumour in the rectum were independent favourable prognostic factors for survival. We conclude that alpha-IFN does not increase the efficacy of 5FU or of 5FU + LV, and that 5FU + alpha-IFN is significantly inferior to 5FU + LV, for patients with advanced colorectal cancer.
Abstract: The characteristics of scientific fraud and its impact on medical research are in general not well known. However, the interest in the phenomenon has increased steadily during the last decade. Biostatisticians routinely work closely with physicians and scientists in many branches of medical research and have therefore unique insight into data. In addition, they have methodological competence to detect fraud and could be expected to have a professional interest in valid results. Biostatisticians therefore are likely to provide reliable information on the characteristics of fraud in medical research. The objective of this survey of biostatisticians, who were members of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, was to assess the characteristics of fraud in medical research. The survey was performed between April and July 1998. The participation rate was only 37%. We report the results because a majority (51%) of the participants knew about fraudulent projects, and many did not know whether the organization they work for has a formal system for handling suspected fraud or not. Different forms of fraud (e.g., fabrication and falsification of data, deceptive reporting of results, suppression of data, and deceptive design or analysis) had been observed in fairly similar numbers. We conclude that fraud is not a negligible phenomenon in medical research, and that increased awareness of the forms in which it is expressed seems appropriate. Further research, however, is needed to assess the prevalence of different types of fraud, as well as its impact on the validity of results published in the medical literature.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Treatment of advanced colorectal cancer has progressed substantially. However, improvements in response rates have not always translated into significant survival benefits. Doubts have therefore been raised about the usefulness of tumour response as a clinical endpoint. METHODS: This meta-analysis was done on individual data from 3791 patients enrolled in 25 randomised trials of first-line treatment with standard bolus intravenous fluoropyrimidines versus experimental treatments (fluorouracil plus leucovorin, fluorouracil plus methotrexate, fluorouracil continuous infusion, or hepatic-arterial infusion of floxuridine). Analyses were by intention to treat. FINDINGS: Compared with bolus fluoropyrimidines, experimental fluoropyrimidines led to significantly higher tumour response rates (454 responses among 2031 patients vs 209 among 1760; odds ratio 0.48 [95% CI 0.40-0.57], p<0.0001) and better survival (1808 deaths among 2031 vs 1580 among 1760; hazard ratio 0.90 [0.84-0.97], p=0.003). The survival benefits could be explained by the higher tumour response rates. However, a treatment that lowered the odds of failure to respond by 50% would be expected to decrease the odds of death by only 6%. In addition, less than half of the variability of the survival benefits in the 25 trials could be explained by the variability of the response benefits in these trials. INTERPRETATION: These analyses confirm that an increase in tumour response rate translates into an increase in overall survival for patients with advanced colorectal cancer. However, in the context of individual trials, knowledge that a treatment has benefits on tumour response does not allow accurate prediction of the ultimate benefit on survival.
Abstract: Clinical studies of heart failure utilizing losartan, an angiotensin-II receptor antagonist, found that this drug is well tolerated and demonstrates hemodynamic, neurohormonal, and symptomatic improvement. To assess all-cause mortality in heart failure patients treated with losartan, a meta-analysis including 1,896 patients was performed on 6 controlled, double-blind, multiple-dose studies, regardless of sample size or duration of follow-up. A combination of logarithmic (log) odds ratios with a continuity correction was utilized for the meta-analysis. Treatment groups were comparable with regard to demographic characteristics, heart failure characteristics, and concomitant cardiovascular therapies. Concomitant use of open-label angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors was not allowed in any study. The mean left ventricular ejection fraction obtained in individual studies ranged from 23% to 31%. Seven hundred forty patients were randomized to control therapy and 1,154 patients were randomized to losartan therapy. There were 36 deaths (3.12%) in the losartan groups compared with 47 in the control groups (6.35%) during the double-blind periods. The odds of dying in the losartan groups were 0.51 times (0.31 to 0.81) that of dying in the control groups (p = 0.004). In this analysis, treatment with losartan provided a beneficial effect upon survival. However, because the number of deaths in these studies is relatively small and the follow-up relatively short, a large confirmatory study is needed to assess the mortality benefit of losartan compared with an ACE inhibitor.
Abstract: Meta-analysis is a systematic, quantitative approach to the combination of data from several clinical trials that address the same question. This analytic approach can help resolve questions that remain unclear from the results of individual trials. Meta-analysis is of particular interest in oncology because of the small differences in efficacy between therapeutic alternatives. The large number of patients included in meta-analyses permit small to moderate benefits of a treatment to be reliably detected and larger treatment benefits to be quantified more accurately. Despite these apparent benefits, the use of meta-analysis has met with a great deal of resistance and has generated much controversy in clinical journals. After a brief description of the basic methods of conducting meta-analyses, this article will explore both their advantages and disadvantages.
Abstract: Meta-analyses play an important role in the current emergence of evidence-based medicine. This paper reviews the meta-analyses reported in the past 3 years in colorectal cancer, from a clinical as well as a statistical perspective. The usefulness of meta-analyses in our understanding and management of colorectal cancer is highlighted for screening, risk of colorectal cancer occurrence, outcome of colorectal cancer, adjuvant treatment, follow-up, and treatment of advanced disease.
Abstract: The validation of surrogate endpoints has been studied by Prentice (1989). He presented a definition as well as a set of criteria, which are equivalent only if the surrogate and true endpoints are binary. Freedman et al. (1992) supplemented these criteria with the so-called 'proportion explained'. Buyse and Molenberghs (1998) proposed replacing the proportion explained by two quantities: (1) the relative effect linking the effect of treatment on both endpoints and (2) an individual-level measure of agreement between both endpoints. The latter quantity carries over when data are available on several randomized trials, while the former can be extended to be a trial-level measure of agreement between the effects of treatment of both endpoints. This approach suggests a new method for the validation of surrogate endpoints, and naturally leads to the prediction of the effect of treatment upon the true endpoint, given its observed effect upon the surrogate endpoint. These ideas are illustrated using data from two sets of multicenter trials: one comparing chemotherapy regimens for patients with advanced ovarian cancer, the other comparing interferon-alpha with placebo for patients with age-related macular degeneration.
Abstract: Efficacy indices measure the efficacy of therapies. They derive, by definition, from two quantities, the basal or control risk of event, Rc, observed in the control group, and the on-treatment risk, Rt, observed in the treated group. In clinical trials and meta-analyses, each is an unbiased measure of efficacy. Although they are a combination of frequencies, these indices are used in clinical practice to predict the benefit in treated patients. Their relevance to express efficacy depends on the type of clinical condition, and is better for acute diseases than for chronic diseases. In order to be useful for prescribers, they should meet certain specifications. In addition, they should be considered in the more general framework of effect models.
Abstract: The International Registry of Lung Metastases was established in 1991 to asses the long-term results of pulmonary metastasectomy. The Registry has accrued 5206 cases of lung metastasectomy, from 18 departments of thoracic surgery in Europe (n = 13), USA (n = 4) and Canada (n = 1). Of these patients 4572 (88%) underwent complete surgical resection. The primary tumor was epithelial in 2260 (43%), sarcoma in 2173 (42%), germ cell in 363 (7%), and melanoma in 328 (6%) patients. The disease-free interval was 0 to 11 months in 1729 (33%) cases, 12 to 35 months in 1857 (36%) and more than 36 months in 1620 (31%). Single metastases accounted for 2383 (46%) cases and multiple lesions for 2726 (52%). Mean follow up was 46 months. Analysis was performed by Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival, relative risk of death and multivariate Cox model. The actuarial survival after complete metastasectomy was 36% at 5 years, 26% at 10 years and 22% at 15 years (median 35 months); the corresponding values for incomplete resection were 13% at 5 years and 7% at 10 years (median 15 months). Among complete resections, the 5-year survival was 33% for patients with a disease free-interval of 0 to 11 months and 45% for those with a disease-free interval of more than 36 months; 43% for single lesions and 27 for four or more lesions. Multivariate analysis showed a better prognosis for patients with germ cell tumors, disease-free interval of 36 months and more and single metastases. These results confirm that lung metastasectomy is a safe and potentially curative procedure.
Abstract: In chronic illness, when death or a non-fatal event can occur at any time, the current efficacy indices are no longer appropriate to express the effect of the treatment on the potential therapeutic objectives. The inappropriateness is not dependent on the effect model. Clues for solutions are proposed.
Abstract: This paper provides a survey on anthracycline treatment in ovarian cancer, focusing on toxicity and analysis of treatment results. Meta-analyses and studies in which anthracyclines have been combined with "standard" taxoid regimens are reviewed. The data suggest that the addition of an anthracycline to front-line non-taxoid based therapy is beneficial. The addition of an anthracycline to a combination of a taxoid and platinum derivative is rationale and feasible and randomised trials are on their way to completion. It is important that the final conclusions of these studies are based on long-term survival data, not just on the assessment of median differences in survival.
Abstract: The four indices for a binary outcome or therapeutic objective are: the odds ratio, the relative risk, the absolute benefit and the number of patients to treat. For a continuous outcome, the effect size is the best choice. The odds ratio approximates the relative risk. The difference may be large in some instances. The number of patients to treat is the reciprocal of the absolute benefit. Although they are built on the same two quantities, they are not interchangeable and should not be considered in the same way. Moreover, their meaning is not straightforward and they can be misused.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Metastases confined to the liver is a frequent situation in patients with advanced colorectal cancer. For non-operable patients, 5-FU-based chemotherapy is often proposed but the importance of the choice of first line 5-FU regimen remains debatable. DESIGN: In four previously performed meta-analyses, our group had compared bolus intravenous fluoropyrimidines (bolus FU group) with experimental fluoropyrimidines (experimental FU group), consisting of 5-FU plus leucovorin, 5-FU plus methotrexate, continuous infusion 5-FU, or hepaticartery infusion FUDR. We re-analysed this data set to focus on 1458 patients with non-operable colorectal metastases confined to the liver, randomised in 22 trials. All analyses were stratified by trial and used individual patient data. RESULTS: Median survival times were 11.3 months in the bolus FU group (95% CI: 10.5-12.0 months) compared to 12.7 months in the experimental FU group (95% CI: 120-13.1 months). This difference, although clinically small, was statistically significant, with an overall survival hazard ratio of 0.88 (95% CI: 0.79-0.99, P = 0.037). In a multivariate analysis, performance status was the only significant predictor of survival (P < 10(-4)), whereas the statistical significance of allocated treatment was borderline (P = 0.058). CONCLUSIONS: The outcome of patient with non-operable colorectal metastases confined to the liver is poor, and mainly driven by their initial performance status. Experimental chemotherapy schedules yield a small improvement in their overall survival, indicating the importance of the choice of first-line chemotherapy.
Abstract: Recent cases of fraud in clinical trials have attracted considerable media attention, but relatively little reaction from the biostatistical community. In this paper we argue that biostatisticians should be involved in preventing fraud (as well as unintentional errors), detecting it, and quantifying its impact on the outcome of clinical trials. We use the term 'fraud' specifically to refer to data fabrication (making up data values) and falsification (changing data values). Reported cases of such fraud involve cheating on inclusion criteria so that ineligible patients can enter the trial, and fabricating data so that no requested data are missing. Such types of fraud are partially preventable through a simplification of the eligibility criteria and through a reduction in the amount of data requested. These two measures are feasible and desirable in a surprisingly large number of clinical trials, and neither of them in any way jeopardizes the validity of the trial results. With regards to detection of fraud, a brute force approach has traditionally been used, whereby the participating centres undergo extensive monitoring involving up to 100 per cent verification of their case records. The cost-effectiveness of this approach seems highly debatable, since one could implement quality control through random sampling schemes, as is done in fields other than clinical medicine. Moreover, there are statistical techniques available (but insufficiently used) to detect 'strange' patterns in the data including, but no limited to, techniques for studying outliers, inliers, overdispersion, underdispersion and correlations or lack thereof. These techniques all rest upon the premise that it is quite difficult to invent plausible data, particularly highly dimensional multivariate data. The multicentric nature of clinical trials also offers an opportunity to check the plausibility of the data submitted by one centre by comparing them with the data from all other centres. Finally, with fraud detected, it is essential to quantify its likely impact upon the outcome of the clinical trial. Many instances of fraud in clinical trials, although morally reprehensible, have a negligible impact on the trial's scientific conclusions.
Abstract: Efficacy indices do not contain the same information although they are all combinations of the same two quantities. Therefore, one should choose the proper index. Actually, none is entirely appropriate. Each more or less meets the specifications, depending on the underlying effect model for the therapy considered. However, one can say that the absolute benefit is more appropriate from the patient's point of view, the relative from the scientific point of view and the number of patients to treat from the policy maker's point of view. Nevertheless, this classification needs to be considered with caution. Finally, it emerges from the review that none is fully relevant to express the efficacy of a therapy, even in the most suitable condition, the acute illness.
Abstract: A defect in erythropoietin (EPO) production has been advocated as being the main cause of anemia presented at time of diagnosis or during treatment by adults with solid tumors. On the basis of this defect, anemic cancer patients, both adults and children, have been treated with recombinant human EPO (rHuEPO). To further elucidate the pathophysiology of anemia in children with cancer, we measured serum soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR), a quantitative marker of erythropoiesis, and serum EPO at time of diagnosis and during chemotherapy in children suffering from solid tumor or leukemia. We determined serum EPO in 111 children (55 leukemia, 56 solid tumors) at time of diagnosis. In the last 44 patients (23 leukemia and 21 solid tumors), sTfR levels were also measured. Serum EPO together with sTfR levels were also determined in 60 children receiving chemotherapy (29 leukemia, 31 solid tumors). These results were compared with those obtained from appropriate control groups. In all patients, we found a highly significant correlation between the logarithm of EPO (log[EPO]) and the hemoglobin (Hb) level. In all subsets of patients, sTfR levels were inappropriately low for the degree of anemia. Neither leukemic nor solid tumor groups showed a significant inverse relationship between log(sTfR) and the Hb level as would be expected in anemic patients with appropriate marrow response. Thus, in children with cancer, anemia is associated with a decreased total bone marrow erythropoietic activity which, in contrast to what has been reported in anemic cancer adults, is not related to defective EPO production.
Abstract: The purpose of this systematic study was to provide an up to date and reliable quantitative summary of the relative benefits of various types of chemotherapy (non-platinum vs platinum, single-agent vs combination and carboplatin vs cisplatin) in the treatment of advanced ovarian cancer. Also, to investigate whether well-defined patient subgroups benefit more or less from cisplatin- or carboplatin-based therapy. Meta-analyses were based on updated individual patient data from all available randomized controlled trials (published and unpublished), including 37 trials, 5667 patients and 4664 deaths. The results suggest that platinum-based chemotherapy is better than non-platinum therapy, show a trend in favour of platinum combinations over single-agent platinum, and suggest that cisplatin and carboplatin are equally effective. There is no good evidence that cisplatin is more or less effective than carboplatin in any particular subgroup of patients.
Abstract: Tropisetron (Navoban") suppresses nausea and vomiting induced by cancer chemotherapy by antagonizing central and peripheral 5-HT3 receptors. In this open-label study, tropisetron was evaluated in 873 patients who were either refractory to antiemetic treatment during previous chemotherapy or at high risk of emesis as a result of current chemotherapy. The most commonly used agents alone or in combination were cyclophosphamide (35%), fluorouracil (30%), carboplatin (24%) and cisplatin (21%). The primary tumors were breast cancer (27%), lung cancer (16%), gynecological cancers (12%) and lymphoma (9%). Tropisetron was administered as a 15 min infusion prior to chemotherapy and an additional oral 5 mg dose was taken by 80% of the patients on subsequent days. During course 1, complete response to tropisetron was obtained in 64% of patients on day 1, 54% on day 2, 63% on day 3, 71% on day 4 and 77% on day 5. Very similar response rates were found for the six chemotherapy courses. There were few failures after complete and partial response, at maximum 3 and 15%, respectively. Moreover, 24-38% of those with partial response and 7-29% of those with failure could achieve a complete response during the following cycle. The treatment was well tolerated, the most frequently reported adverse events being constipation (3.7%) and headache (2.6%).
Abstract: The validation of surrogate endpoints has been studied by Prentice (1989, Statistics in Medicine 8, 431-440) and Freedman, Graubard, and Schatzkin (1992, Statistics in Medicine 11, 167-178). We extended their proposals in the cases where the surrogate and the final endpoints are both binary or normally distributed. Letting T and S be random variables that denote the true and surrogate endpoint, respectively, and Z be an indicator variable for treatment, Prentice's criteria are fulfilled if Z has a significant effect on T and on S, if S has a significant effect on T, and if Z has no effect on T given S. Freedman relaxed the latter criterion by estimating PE, the proportion of the effect of Z on T that is explained by S, and by requiring that the lower confidence limit of PE be larger than some proportion, say 0.5 or 0.75. This condition can only be verified if the treatment has a massively significant effect on the true endpoint, a rare situation. We argue that two other quantities must be considered in the validation of a surrogate endpoint: RE, the effect of Z on T relative to that of Z on S, and gamma Z, the association between S and T after adjustment for Z. A surrogate is said to be perfect at the individual level when there is a perfect association between the surrogate and the final endpoint after adjustment for treatment. A surrogate is said to be perfect at the population level if RE is 1. A perfect surrogate fulfills both conditions, in which case S and T are identical up to a deterministic transformation. Fieller's theorem is used for the estimation of PE, RE, and their respective confidence intervals. Logistic regression models and the global odds ratio model studied by Dale (1986, Biometrics, 42, 909-917) are used for binary endpoints. Linear models are employed for continuous endpoints. In order to be of practical value, the validation of surrogate endpoints is shown to require large numbers of observations.
Abstract: This project is devoted to the development of novel cellular vaccines designed to treat cancer patients. These cellular vaccines present and enhance immunogens, which will elicit a potent immune response. The goal is to achieve safe and effective immune reaction against the patient's own tumour. (1) Autologous cellular vaccines are prepared by processing circulating blood mononuclear cells outside of the patient's body (ex vivo) to differentiate them into antigen-presenting cells (APCs). Monocyte-derived APCs (MD-APCs) are then grown in the presence of exogenous target antigens (tumour cell debris, or apoptotic bodies) to become fully mature APCs. (2) Functionality for antigen presentation to T cells of ex vivo MD-APCs is evaluated in vivo. (3) Cellular vaccines are tested in selected rodent animal models. Efficiency and immune response are monitored in pertinent experimental systems for cancer. Pharmacological data are generated for clinical investigation. Tolerance and biologic effects are documented in primates. (4) The first clinical trials on cancer patients are taking place in 1998 on melanoma and prostate cancer to validate the concept. Specialized cell processors with dedicated software and standardized controls are being developed and used for the preparation of cellular vaccines. (5) The evaluation of new non-viral vectors and the validation of new non-viral transfection methods of mononuclear cells with marker genes is in progress and will lead to the ex vivo transfection of genes coding for immunostimulating cytokines or for tumour antigens in MD-APCs. Efficiency will be validated in vitro and in animal models. The ex vivo and animal model studies validate the clinical relevance of this new cellular immunotechnology. Clinical validation of individual autologous cellular vaccines in specific indications for which no treatment is presently available will allow the development of cellular and gene immunotherapy for other types of cancers.
Abstract: Neoplastic growth is usually dependent on blood supply, and it is commonly accepted that this is provided by the formation of new vessels. However, tumors may be able to grow without neovascularization if they find a suitable vascular bed available. We have investigated the pattern of vascularization in a series of 500 primary stage I non-small-cell lung carcinomas. Immunostaining of endothelial cells has highlighted four distinct patterns of vascularization. Three patterns (which we called basal, papillary, and diffuse) have in common the destruction of normal lung and the production of newly formed vessels and stroma. The fourth pattern, which we called alveolar or putative nonangiogenic, was observed in 16% (80/500) of the cases and is characterized by lack of parenchymal destruction and absence of both tumor associated stroma and new vessels. The only vessels present were the ones in the alveolar septa, and their presence highlighted, through the whole tumor, the lung alveoli filled up by the neoplastic cells. This observation suggests that, if an appropriate vascular bed is available, a tumor can exploit it and grows without inducing neo-angiogenesis. This could have implications for strategies aimed at inhibiting tumor growth by vascular targeting or inhibition of angiogenesis.
Abstract: PURPOSE: This study investigated the frequency of the expression and prognostic significance of a panel of immunocytochemical markers in resected non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 515 cases of pathologic stage I NSCLC were analyzed. The median follow-up time of surviving patients was 102 months. The following immunocytochemical markers were tested: blood group A and precursors of blood antigens; laminin receptor; c-erbB1/epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and c-erbB2/Neu; BCl2; p53; and angiogenesis. Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival and time to recurrence were calculated for clinical variables and biologic markers using the Cox model for multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The pathologic tumor extension (pT) represented the most powerful prognostic factor for survival (P = .0008) and time to recurrence (P = .0007). None of the immunocytochemical markers emerged as an independent predictive factor for survival. Bcl2-positive tumors showed a better time to recurrence (P = .03), but the difference lost statistical significance in the multivariate analysis. Of interest, in the group of 137 patients classified as pT1N0, both EGFR expression and nonangiogenic type of vascular pattern were associated with a poorer survival (P = .02). However, data derived from subset analysis must be interpreted cautiously. CONCLUSION: Our findings do not support a relevant prognostic role of immunocytochemical markers in NSCLC. The evidence is not sufficient to alter clinical practice or even to restrict clinical trials of adjuvant treatments to predefined biologic subsets of patients.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Approximately 20% of patients with colorectal cancer die of metastases confined to the liver. A meta-analysis recently performed by our group confirmed that in these patients hepatic arterial infusion of 5-fluoro-2'-deoxyuridine, compared with intravenous chemotherapy with fluoropyrimidines or supportive care (including symptom palliation when necessary), improved tumor response. PURPOSE: Because of the high cost of hepatic arterial infusion, we undertook a cost-effectiveness analysis that related the cost of such therapy to its medical efficacy. METHODS: The patient population was drawn from the seven randomized clinical trials included in the meta-analysis and included individual data on 654 patients. Of these seven trials, five compared hepatic arterial infusion and intravenous chemotherapy and two compared hepatic arterial infusion and a control group in which some patients could be left untreated. Patients assigned to receive hepatic arterial infusion made up the hepatic arterial infusion group; the other patients constituted the control group. The measures of efficacy were survival and tumor response. Health-care costs (in 1995 U.S. dollars) were computed over the duration of patient follow-up and were derived from actual costs in two centers, one at Henri Mondor Hospital (Paris, France) and the other at Stanford University Medical Center (Palo Alto, CA). The total cost of treatment included the initial procedure, chemotherapy cycles, and main complications. RESULTS: The mean gain in life expectancy in the hepatic arterial infusion group compared with the control group was 3.2 months (standard error = 1.0 month). For patients treated by hepatic arterial infusion in Paris, the hepatic arterial infusion pump, initial hospitalization, and the entire process (including follow-up and complications) cost, on average, $8400, $15172, and $29562, respectively; in Palo Alto, these costs were $4700, $13784, and $25 208, respectively. For patients in the control groups in Paris and Palo Alto, the total treatment costs were, on average, $9926 and $5928. The additional costs of hepatic arterial infusion over control treatment were $19636 in Paris and $19280 in Palo Alto. The cost-effectiveness (i.e., the additional cost divided by the additional benefit) with respect to survival of the patients in the hepatic arterial infusion group compared with the patients in the control group was $73635 per life-year in Paris and $72300 per life-year in Palo Alto. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The cost-effectiveness of localized chemotherapy for colorectal liver metastases is within the range of accepted treatments for serious medical conditions, although it might be considered borderline by policy-makers in some countries. Prospective clinical trials should be conducted to more definitively answer this question.
Abstract: Hydroxyurea (HU) enhances the synthesis of fetal hemoglobin (HbF) and can improve the clinical course of some adult patients with sickle cell anemia (SCA). In a randomized trial, we studied the biologic effects and the clinical benefit of HU in children and young adults with severe SCA. Twenty-five patients (median age, 9 years) were randomized to receive either HU (at the initial dosage of 20 mg/kg/d) or a placebo for 6 months and were then switched to the other arm for the next 6 months. Among the 22 evaluable patients (median age, 8 years), significant increases in HbF and mean corpuscular volume occurred during the HU treatment period. The white blood cell and reticulocytes counts decreased significantly, but these changes were not clinically relevant. Sixteen of 22 patients (73%) experienced a complete disappearance of events requiring hospitalization. The number of days of hospitalization as well as the number of hospitalizations for patients on HU, as compared with those for the patients receiving placebo, were significantly reduced. We conclude that treatment with HU in children and young adults is feasible, well-tolerated, and improves the clinical course of SCA. The long-term effects of HU require further investigation.
Abstract: PURPOSE: To compare the efficacy and toxicity profiles of a combination of fluorouracil (5-FU) and recombinant human interferon alfa-2a ([IFN alpha 2a] Roferon-A; Hoffmann-LaRoche, Basel, Switzerland) versus 5-FU alone in the treatment of advanced colorectal cancer (ACC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 245 previously untreated ACC patients were randomized to receive either IFN alpha 2a (9 million IU) subcutaneously (SC) three times weekly with 5-FU (750 mg/m2/d) by continuous intravenous (CIV) infusion on days 1 to 5 and then, after a 1-week hiatus, as a weekly IV bolus at the same dose (IFN/ 5-FU), or 5-FU alone at the same dose schedule (5-FU). RESULTS: There were no significant differences between IFN/5-FU and 5-FU alone in the overall response rate (24% v 17%, P = .2), duration of response (median, 6.4 v 8.1 months), time to response (plateau at 3 months), time to progressive disease ([PD] median, 4.8 v 4.9 months), or survival duration (median, 13.9 v 13.2 months). Toxicity profiles were not statistically different except for constitutional symptoms, which were more frequent and more severe with IFN/5-FU. More patients interrupted treatment for adverse events (AEs) with IFN/ 5-FU (34%) than with 5-FU alone (21%) (P = .03). The number of deaths (mostly unrelated to drug treatment) during the study (8%) was similar with both regimens. CONCLUSION: The combination IFN/5-FU produced a response rate, response duration, and survival duration similar to that of 5-FU alone. The addition of IFN to 5-FU in the doses and schedules used in this study did not provide any further benefit over 5-FU alone and cannot be recommended for patients with metastatic ACC. This study confirms the value of large prospective randomized clinical trials to determine the clinical value of regimens that emerge from smaller single-center phase II studies.
Abstract: In this paper we review several approaches which have been used to investigate the relationship between survival time and response to treatment. We show that the approaches based on summary data are subjected to various types of biases (publication bias, confounding by prognostic features, ecologic bias) and are therefore of doubtful value. We also discuss several approaches based on individual patient data. Comparisons of survival by response are generally subject to length-biased sampling, and are therefore inadequate. The landmark method is adequate when responses occur soon after starting treatment, but not when responses may appear later in the course of the disease. For responses which can occur over extended periods of time, response must be considered as a time-dependent covariate. Using data from randomized trials in advanced colorectal cancer, we show that response is a potent and independent prognostic factor for survival in this disease. Analyses using the landmark method yield results essentially equivalent to those in which response is considered as a time-dependent covariate. The hazard rate of responders is about half that of non-responders, after taking the patient's performance status into account. The issue of response as a surrogate marker for survival is taken up further in a separate paper.
Abstract: The basic statistical issue in pharmacovigilance is to claim, with reasonable certainty, that the incidence of an event of interest in a population of subjects is less than a certain value. How many subjects and events must be observed before such a claim can be made? A first situation of practical importance is when a product has been on the market for some period of time, and the safety of this product regarding some outcome of interest is questioned (for instance, the viral safety of blood products). Having observed a few occurrences of the event of interest, how confident can we be that the product is responsible for an elevation of the incidence of this event compared with the baseline incidence in a reference population? This issue will increasingly need to be addressed prospectively: how many subjects need to be treated and how many events observed, to be reasonably certain that a product is safe? Multi-stage designs are appropriate to address this question, yet they do not seem popular in pharmacovigilance. Such approaches could complement the standard recommendations to assess the safety of blood products, which are adequate as a first screen against major safety problems, but wholly inadequate for the long-term surveillance of subjects at risk of rare events. It will be argued that, from a regulatory perspective, the implementation of prospective protocols for pharmacovigilance, using appropriate statistical tools, would permit a tight control of the safety of new products, while making these products available as early as possible to the patients who need them.
Abstract: The addition of dipyridamole, an antiplatelet agent, to conventional anticoagulant regimens has been shown to reduce the frequency of embolization after valve replacement with a mechanical prosthesis. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to reevaluate the benefit of dipyridamole by analyzing the evidence from all randomized clinical trials. Summary data were extracted from the application to the Food and Drug Administration. Six randomized clinical trials had accrued 1141 patients, of whom 582 received anticoagulant therapy alone and 559 received additional dipyridamole at dosages ranging from 225 to 400 mg per day. The events analyzed were all thromboembolic events, both fatal and nonfatal; hemorrhagic events, both fatal and nonfatal; and the overall mortality. The combination of dipyridamole with anticoagulants reduced the risk of thromboembolic events (fatal or nonfatal) by 56% when compared with the use of anticoagulants alone (p = 0.0001). The risk reduction was seen in fatal and in nonfatal thromboembolic events (risk reduction for fatal events, 64%, p = 0.008; for nonfatal events, 50%, p = 0.005). The overall mortality rate was also significantly reduced by 40% in the group receiving dipyridamole (p = 0.013). There was no difference between treatment groups with respect to hemorrhagic events (risk reduction, -1%, p = 0.94). This meta-analysis supports the use of dipyridamole in this setting and warrants further trials with new antiplatelet agents.
Abstract: PURPOSE: In a randomized clinical trial (European Organization for the Research and Treatment of Cancer [EORTC] no. 40813) on adjuvant chemotherapy in gastric cancer, results obtained after administration of the FAM2 regimen (fluorouracil [5-FU], doxorubicin, and mitomycin) were compared with results obtained after surgery alone to assess the effect of this regimen on overall survival, time to progression, and disease-free interval. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Three hundred fourteen patients who had undergone curative resection for stage II or stage III (International Union Against Cancer [UICC] 1978) gastric adenocarcinoma were randomized to receive chemotherapy (treatment arm) or no further treatment (control arm). The chemotherapy schedule was repeated every 43 days for seven cycles. The log-rank test and the Cox model were used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: Of 314 patients, 159 comprised the control group and 155 the FAM2 group. Nineteen FAM2 patients never received chemotherapy. The median number of cycles was five. Of the patients started on adjuvant treatment, severe hematologic and nonhematologic toxicity (grades 3 or 4, World Health Organization [WHO] scale) occurred, respectively, in 6% to 9% and in 1% to 29% of cases. The overall 5-year survival rate was 70% for stage II and 32% for stage III patients. No statistically significant difference was found between overall survival of the two treatment arms (P = .295). However, time to progression was significantly delayed in the FAM2 arm (P = .020) and disease-free survival showed borderline significance (P = .068). CONCLUSION: FAM2, in view of its high toxicity, cannot be advocated as standard adjuvant treatment for gastric cancer. Large-scale clinical trials using more active, less toxic regimens are required to demonstrate whether adjuvant chemotherapy provides any real benefit.
Abstract: To test the hypothesis that the initial response to corticosteroid treatment makes it possible to predict the further course of patients with polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR), 20 patients with PMR were prospectively given a therapeutic challenge with 15 mg of prednisolone (PDN) per day. The erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), the fibrinogen and the C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured before and after 7 days of therapy. At the end of the challenge, the CRP had normalized in 11 patients (Group I), whereas it had remained elevated in 9 (Group II). The dose of PDN was thereafter tapered according to a strict and standard schedule integrating clinical and laboratory parameters, and was used as the index of disease control. The statistical analysis was made using a generalized linear model. Follow-up ranged from 8 to 60 months with a median of 38 months. With the PDN dose as the end point, Group I showed a significantly better course than Group II (p = 0.014). There were fewer adverse events due to corticosteroid treatment in Group I (3/11) compared to Group II (7/9). We conclude that the CRP initial response to the corticosteroid treatment is a prognostic factor in patients with PMR. Larger studies are needed to confirm these preliminary results.
Abstract: Even with the availability of potent and selective serotonin antagonists, chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting remain a major problem for many patients. This study aims to evaluate the benefit of combination therapy based on Navoban (tropisetron) in patients who had incomplete control of nausea and/or vomiting induced by chemotherapy when using Navoban as a single antiemetic agent. In their first chemotherapy course, 1072 patients planned to receive at least two identical cycles of emetogenic chemotherapy were treated with 5 mg Navoban once daily. To evaluate three treatments additional to the recommended 5 mg once-daily Navoban regimen during Course 2 in those patients who had shown incomplete control of nausea and/or vomiting on any day of Course 1, a 2 x 2 x 2 factorial design was employed. Of these patients, 445 were centrally randomised to receive an additional dose of open-label dexamethasone (Day 1, 0.2 mg/kg i.v.; Days 2-6, 8 mg p.o.) and/or open-label alizapride (Day 1, 100 mg i.v. and 4 x 50 mg p.o.; Days 2-6, 4 x 5 mg p.o.) and/or double-blind Navoban--that is, doubling the dose to 10 mg once daily or placebo. Complete response rates during Course 1 (CRR, no nausea and no vomiting) were, for Day 1, 72% and for Days 1-6, 48%. More complete responders were observed when dexamethasone was added during Course 2, both on Day 1 (76% vs. 66%, p = 0.020) and on Days 1-6 (50% vs. 34%, p = 0.0004).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
Abstract: BACKGROUND. Although the value of primary cytoreductive surgery for epithelial ovarian cancer is beyond doubt, the value of debulking surgery after induction chemotherapy has not yet been defined. In this randomized study we investigated the effect on survival of debulking surgery. METHODS. Eligible patients had residual lesions measuring more than 1 cm in diameter after primary surgery. After three cycles of cyclophosphamide and cisplatin, these patients were randomly assigned to undergo either debulking surgery or no surgery, followed by further cycles of cyclophosphamide and cisplatin. The study end points were progression-free and overall survival. At surgery 65 percent of the patients had lesions measuring more than 1 cm. In 45 percent of this group, the lesions were reduced surgically to less than 1 cm. RESULTS. Of the 319 patients who underwent randomization, 278 could be evaluated (140 patients who underwent surgery and 138 patients who did not). Progression-free and overall survival were both significantly longer in the group that underwent surgery (P = 0.01). The difference in median survival was six months. The survival rate at two years was 56 percent for the group that underwent surgery and 46 percent for the group that did not. In the multivariate analysis, debulking surgery was an independent prognostic factor (P = 0.012). Overall, after adjustment for all other prognostic factors, surgery reduced the risk of death by 33 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 10 to 50 percent; P = 0.008). Surgery was not associated with death or severe morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Debulking surgery significantly lengthened progression-free and overall survival. The risk of death was reduced by one third, after adjustment for a variety of prognostic factors.
Abstract: BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The purpose of this paper is to evaluate, in the light of all available evidence, the place of aspirin alone and of aspirin combined with dipyridamole in the secondary prevention of cerebrovascular accidents. METHODS: We performed a meta-analysis of all identified double blind, controlled, studies in secondary prevention of cerebrovascular accidents for the following categories: studies comparing aspirin with placebo; studies comparing aspirin plus dipyridamole with placebo; studies comparing aspirin plus dipyridamole with aspirin alone. An indirect comparison was carried out to compare the results obtained with aspirin alone and those obtained with aspirin combined with dipyridamole. RESULTS: The meta-analysis of trials involving aspirin alone against placebo showed a risk reduction on strokes (17% reduction, p = 0.02), "important vascular events", i.e. a combination of vascular deaths, non-fatal strokes and non-fatal myocardial infarction (18% reduction, p = 0.003). Fatal vascular events (vascular deaths and fatal strokes) did not seem to be reduced at all. The overall mortality was reduced by 10%, but this reduction failed to reach statistical significance (p = 0.23). The meta-analysis of trials involving aspirin combined with dipyridamole showed more important risk reductions on every outcome whether fatal or not. Strokes were reduced by 42% (p < 0.001), fatal strokes by 43% (p = 0.02) and vascular deaths by 24% (p = 0.07, not significant). The overall mortality was reduced by 30% (p = 0.004). Direct comparisons of aspirin with aspirin plus dipyridamole did not indicate differences between the two treatment regimens. However the sample sizes involved in these comparisons were far too small to be informative. Indirect comparisons yielded statistically significant results in favour of the combination in terms of "important vascular events" (p = 0.007), all strokes (p = 0.007) and fatal strokes (p = 0.03). The results were also in favour of the combination but not statistically significant in terms of all deaths (p = 0.10) and vascular deaths (p = 0.08). CONCLUSIONS: Aspirin used alone reduces secondary occurrence of vascular events in cerebrovascular patients. There is no evidence, however, of a reduction of fatal events (vascular deaths and fatal strokes). In contrast, aspirin in combination with dipyridamole reduces non-fatal as well as fatal events. These results as well as the indirect comparisons of the risk reductions suggest that the combination of aspirin with dipyridamole may be superior to aspirin alone; this hypothesis is presently tested in a large randomized trial.
Abstract: Chemo-occlusion of the liver increases the tumour concentration of drugs. Thirty-nine patients with colorectal liver metastases received a monthly bolus administration of mitomycin C (10 mg/m2 on day 1) plus a continuous infusion of 5-fluorouracil (500 mg/m2 daily from days 1 to 5). Drugs were given via both portal (one-third of the dose) and arterial (two-thirds) routes to control large and small metastases. Arterially administered mitomycin C was mixed with individualized doses of degradable starch microspheres. In 16 patients treatment was not started or was interrupted early because of arterial or portal catheter problems. In 23 patients who received two or more cycles of treatment the mean(s.d.) microsphere dose was 835(399) mg. Toxicity was mild, consisting mainly of pain. Five complete and five partial responses were seen, and six patients had stable disease. The median time to progression and length of survival were 6 and 16 months respectively. The relatively high rates of complete and overall response in hypovascular tumours (six of 12 lesions) may support the rationale of chemo-occlusion.
Abstract: PURPOSE: This study evaluated tropisetron (Navoban; Sandoz Pharma, Basle, Switzerland)-based combination therapy in patients who had incomplete control of chemotherapy-induced nausea or vomiting when using tropisetron as a single antiemetic agent. PATIENTS AND METHODS: One thousand seventy-two patients, who were scheduled to receive at least two identical cycles of emetogenic chemotherapy, were treated with 5 mg tropisetron once daily in their first chemotherapy course. A 2 x 2 x 2 factorial design was used to evaluate three additional treatments to the recommended 5 mg once daily (intravenously [i.v.] on day 1; orally on days 2 through 6) tropisetron regimen during course 2 in those patients who had shown incomplete control of nausea and/or vomiting on any day of course 1. Four hundred forty-five patients were centrally randomized to receive, in addition, open-label dexamethasone (day 1, 0.2 mg/kg i.v.; days 2 through 6, 8 mg orally) and/or open-label alizapride (day 1, 100 mg i.v. and 4 x 50 mg orally; days 2 through 6, 4 x 50 mg orally) and/or double-blind tropisetron (ie, doubling the dose to 10 mg once daily) or corresponding placebo. RESULTS: Complete response rates (no nausea and no vomiting) were 72% for day 1 and 48% for days 1 through 6 of course 1. During course 2, more complete responders were observed when dexamethasone was added, both for day 1 (76% v 66%, P = .020) and for days 1 through 6 (50% v 34%, P = .0004). A moderate increase in the complete response rate was seen with the addition of conventional-dose alizapride (day 1, 75% v 68%, P = .14; days 1 through 6: 47% v 37%, P = .041). Doubling the dose of tropisetron did not change the complete response rate. CONCLUSION: The addition of dexamethasone significantly increases the complete response rate of both acute and delayed emesis in patients who have incomplete disease control with tropisetron alone.
Abstract: BACKGROUND AND DESIGN: We previously reported a meta-analysis of all randomized clinical trials comparing 5-FU to 5-FU plus intravenous d.l. leucovorin (LV) in patients with advanced colorectal cancer. RESULTS: The meta-analysis confirmed the advantage of 5-FU/LV over 5-FU alone in terms of response rate: overall, the response rate was 11% with 5-FU alone vs 23% with 5-FU/LV (p < 10(-7)). At the same time, it was showed that tumor regression can not be considered a surrogate end point for survival in patients with advanced colorectal cancer: no significant survival advantage was observed for patients allocated to 5-FU/LV. The present paper focuses on the interest of meta-analysis to study the role of the biomodulation of 5-FU by LV. This approach is compared with the analysis of individual clinical trials in terms of power, bias and credibility. It is argued that for the meta-analysis to be reliable, individual patient data from all available studies must be used, rather than summary data extracted from published papers. CONCLUSION: It is concluded that meta-analysis is very useful as a tool to explore and summarize available data on a given clinical problem, though its purpose is not to recommend any treatment modality. This meta-analysis has confirmed both the benefit of biomodulation of 5-FU by LV, and the limitations of the current modalities to impact significantly on overall patient survival. Further laboratory and clinical research is warranted on the biomodulation of 5-FU by LV.
Abstract: A survey was carried out to identify the current policies of European cooperative groups with respect to interim analyses, stopping rules and data monitoring of ongoing clinical trials. The policies differ widely, from informal interim analyses distributed among all participating investigators, to planned interim analyses carried out by an independent statistician and scrutinized by a data monitoring committee. Different situations clearly call for different policies: for instance, trials of new drugs in AIDS need to be monitored more closely than trials of non-toxic adjuvant therapies for cancer. Likewise, trials with an immediately measurable end-point (such as the large-scale trials in myocardial infarction) need more intensive monitoring than those in which the outcome assessment requires prolonged follow-up. In all cases, however, it seems useful to articulate explicit data monitoring procedures in the trial protocol. In general, an independent data monitoring committee is essential to advise on the desirability to continue accrual into the trial, or to stop it early.
Abstract: PURPOSE: Vitamin A and retinoids are strong inhibitors of epithelial cancer promotion and progression in experimental carcinogenesis. This study examined whether they may prevent the occurrence of upper aerodigestive cancer in subjects heavily exposed to tobacco smoking, such as patients already cured of an early-stage lung cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The adjuvant effect of high-dose vitamin A was tested on 307 patients with stage I non-small-cell lung cancer. After curative surgery, patients were randomly assigned to either a group prescribed retinol palmitate administration (orally 300,000 IU daily for 12 months) or a control group prescribed no treatment. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 46 months, the number of patients with either recurrence or new primary tumors was 56 (37%) in the treated arm and 75 (48%) in the control arm. Eighteen patients in the treated group developed a second primary tumor, and 29 patients in the control group developed 33 second primary tumors. A statistically significant difference in favor of treatment was observed concerning time to new primary tumors in the field of prevention (P = .045, log-rank test). The treatment difference in terms of disease-free interval was close to statistical significance (P = .054, log-rank test) and just significant when adjusted for primary tumor classification (P = .038, Cox regression model). CONCLUSION: Daily oral administration of high-dose vitamin A is effective in reducing the number of new primary tumors related to tobacco consumption and may improve the disease-free interval in patients curatively resected for stage I lung cancer. The impact of such a treatment on survival needs to be further explored.
Abstract: Are randomized clinical trials needed to evaluate new therapies? Judging from the number of randomized trials which get published in medical journals, the answer seems to be unequivocally positive. No new drug may be put on the market without at least two randomized studies showing its benefit. In comparison, prospective, controlled and randomized studies are rather more sparse in the evaluation of new surgical approaches. Moreover, the kinds of trials that are performed to test new anti-cancer drugs may not provide an appropriate model to establish the worth of treatments given as adjuvant to surgery. This paper briefly discusses some reasons why trials should be more common in surgical oncology, and some ways in which they could be made more pertinent.
Abstract: The aim of this multicentric prospective randomized clinical trial was to study the efficacy of hepatic artery ligation (HAL) with and without portal infusion (PI) of 5-FU in patients with liver metastasis of colorectal origin. Seventy-four patients were randomized. Sixty-seven were fully evaluable. Thirty-five patients were eligible in the HAL + PI of 5-FU group and 32 in the HAL alone group. The 5-FU infusion had to be discontinued for technical reasons in 13 patients. Complications of HAL were relatively high, including four hepatic failures (WHO grading greater than 2). Side effects of chemotherapy were limited. Five patients out of 30 had a partial response (WHO criteria) and one patient had a complete response in the group treated by HAL and PI of 5-FU. Only one patient had a partial response in the HAL alone group. Median survival for both groups was 12 months. Median time to progression for both groups was 6 months. This study did not show any advantage of delivery using the portal route in addition to hepatic artery ligation in terms of progression nor in survival of patients.
Abstract: In a prospective phase III multicenter trial, 213 patients with advanced measurable or nonmeasurable gastric cancer were randomized to receive methotrexate (MTX), fluorouracil (5-FU), and Adriamycin (doxorubicin; Farmitalia Carlo Erba, Milan, Italy) (FAMTX) or 5-FU, Adriamycin, and mitomycin (FAM). The results show a significantly superior response rate (41% v 9% [P less than .0001]), and survival (median, 42 weeks v 29 weeks [P = .004]) for FAMTX. There was a cumulative thrombocytopenia in FAM and not in FAMTX. The FAMTX protocol should be the reference treatment in future clinical trials that seek to improve the therapeutic outcome in advanced gastric cancer.
Abstract: In order to improve the therapeutic index of fluorouracil (5-FU), it has been combined with cisplatin (DDP) as synergistic agent and with allopurinol (HPP) as toxicity modulator. Patients with measurable colorectal carcinoma, previously untreated by chemotherapy, were randomized to receive either 5-FU alone 500 mg/m2 push iv days 1-5 or HPP 3 x 300 mg po, days 1-5, 5-FU 800 mg/m2 push iv, days 3-5 and DDP 50 mg/m2 d6. Treatment was repeated every 4 weeks. Of 104 patients randomized, 82 were evaluable for response and survival. Six partial responses were seen in each treatment group (15%) and the median survival time was 7 months. Hematologic toxicities were comparable in both treatment groups, with a mean nadir white blood cell count of 3500/ vs. 3800/mm3 and a mean nadir platelet count of 148,000/ vs, 203,000/mm3 for HPP-5-FU-DDP and 5-FU, respectively. This study suggests that the addition of both HPP and DDP does not improve the activity of 5-FU.
Abstract: It is often believed that strict inclusion criteria must be defined before starting a comparative clinical trial of some new therapy. Strict inclusion criteria tend to make the sample of patients entered in the trial homogeneous, but they reduce the number of patients potentially available for the trial. Loose inclusion criteria, on the other hand, increase the heterogeneity of the sample, but also its size. This paper shows that loose inclusion criteria are in general preferable to strict ones, because they result in a trial of shorter duration. The implication is that unless there are good a priori reasons to exclude some subgroups of patients from a clinical trial, the broadest possible inclusion criteria should be adopted.
Abstract: The levels of homovanillic acid (HVA), 5-hydroxy indoleacetic acid (5HIAA), and 3-methoxy-4-hydroxy phenylglycol (MHPG) were determined in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of 28 patients with cognitive disorders on Day 1 and Days 8 or 15. During that period all patients were kept hospitalized under strict standard conditions, did not develop any acute CNS lesion, had no changes in their treatment and no acute systemic disease. The mean levels found in the first and second determinations were almost identical for the 3 metabolites; respectively 37.8 ng/ml and 36.3 ng/ml for HVA, 27.8 ng/ml and 27.9 ng/ml for 5HIAA, and 12.9 ng/ml and 12.3 ng/ml for MHPG. Thus, the mean values of these metabolites in CSF are reproducible at least during a 15-day hospitalization. However statistically significant individual changes in metabolite levels were found between the two samples in 82% of patients for HVA, 32% for HIAA and 48% for MHPG. The number of patients required to detect a significant change in the mean levels of each monoamine metabolite has been calculated taking into account the extent of intraindividual variations.
Abstract: One hundred and fifteen patients with curative and palliative surgery for gastric cancer were randomized to receive radiotherapy alone (1) or in combination with short-term (ST) 5-FU (2), long-term (LT) 5-FU (3), ST and LT 5-FU (4). The ST 5-FU was given at a daily dose of 575 mg/m2, every 4-6 h during the first 4 days of treatment before starting irradiation. The LT 5-FU was given at a dosage of 750 mg/m2 every 2 weeks for 18 months or until progression. The median survival times for treatment 1 to 4 was respectively 12, 10, 15 and 18 months. There was a statistically significant overall difference between the four treatments (P = 0.041). However, when the comparisons were adjusted for the most significant prognostic factors, the difference in survival disappeared. Moreover, no difference was found between treatments in terms of time progression. Nevertheless, among 22 patients with residual tumour, the three who were still alive without disease progression (with survivals of 19+, 49+ and 90+ months at the time of this analysis) had been treated with radiotherapy combined with ST and LT 5-FU.
Abstract: Randomized clinical trials are a powerful tool to establish the superiority of investigational therapies over standard ones. Yet in cancer, particularly in colorectal cancer, the results of clinical trials have been disappointing and have raised some suspicion about the real worth of randomization. This paper attempts to show that the results of randomized trials have often been misinterpreted, either because they were subject to various sources of biases or because their statistical power was too low to allow a reasonably reliable assessment of true treatment benefits.
Abstract: Forty-six patients with Stage III-IV previously untreated squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck were treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy with cisplatin, methotrexate, bleomycin and vincristine. The overall response rate was 70%, with a 9% complete response rate. The most frequent side effects were myelosuppression, nausea and vomiting, alopecia, neurotoxicity and stomatitis. Definitive local therapy consisted of surgery alone in 13 cases, surgery plus radiation in another 13, and radiotherapy alone in 14. Six patients, four of whom died, received no definitive local therapy and two were lost to follow-up. The median disease-free survival time was 10.5 months, and the most frequent cause of failure was local regional relapse (85%). Median survival time was 13 months and there were eight long-term survivals (median 48 months). Response to chemotherapy was independent of all analysed prognostic factors. Disease-free survival and survival were significantly influenced by the presence or absence of lymph nodes. Our results do not support the routine use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy with cisplatin, methotrexate, bleomycin, and vincristine in patients with advanced cell carcinoma of the head and neck.
Abstract: This article briefly discusses the various ways in which prognostic information can be included in the analysis of treatment effect in clinical trials. Adjustments in the treatment comparison are usually not warranted, as they do not substantially improve precision, but they may be useful, in addition to the unadjusted comparison, if a potent covariate is by chance maldistributed among the treatment groups. Estimation of interactions between treatment and covariates is usually plagued by insufficient statistical power. Estimation of treatment effect within individual subgroups is also subject to large random errors as well as to the problem of multiplicity, but with these caveats in mind it is an informative and needed complement to an analysis of overall treatment effect.
Abstract: From 1978 to 1985, 297 patients were entered in a double-blind randomized trial comparing levamisole to placebo as adjuvant therapy of Dukes' C carcinoma of the colon. Therapy consisted of from two to five tablets of 50 mg levamisole (or placebo) twice a week, depending on bodyweight for 1 year. Levamisole was generally well tolerated, with only four reversible cases of agranulocytosis reported among 129 patients. The trial failed to show a benefit of levamisole on disease-free survival (P = 0.53) or on survival (P = 0.35). There was no difference between the two treatment groups in terms of number of disease relapses, sites of relapse, or time to relapse. The proportion of patients still alive at 5 years was 51 per cent (standard error, 5.5 per cent) in the levamisole group versus 39 per cent (standard error, 5.4 per cent) in the placebo group.
Abstract: The effect of inducing morphological differentiation in N1E 115 mouse neuroblastoma cells on the number of muscarinic receptors and the ligand binding affinity was investigated using the lipophylic quinuclidinyl benzylate and the hydrophylic N-methylscopolamine as tritiated ligands. Induction of morphological differentiation was accompanied by a two- to three-fold increase of the number of receptors when assayed in a broken cell preparation; the ligand binding affinity was unaffected by differentiation. Using intact cells, this increase was not paralleled by a similar increase in binding sites accessible for N-methylscopolamine, which binds preferentially to extracellular sites.
Abstract: Until now advanced gastric cancer has been generally treated with the FAM chemotherapy protocol. Due to the relatively low response rates with this protocol we decided to start a randomized prospective phase II trial comparing the FAM with the FAMTX protocol. The primary aim of our trial was to compare the toxicity in both protocols. The FAMTX protocol has been demonstrated to be fully comparable with the toxicity of the FAM protocol. The trial has been extended to a phase III study. With respect to response rates and survival times it is too early for evaluation.
Abstract: While uncontrolled and retrospective studies suggest a treatment benefit for radiotherapy or chemotherapy when administered as adjuvant before or after surgical resection with a curative aim for colon cancer, prospective randomized clinicals trials failed to show any advantage and do not to date confirm the efficiency of the proposed adjuvant therapy. For rectal cancer, preoperative irradiation administered at the dose of 34.5 Gy and postoperative radiotherapy administered at the dose of 46 to 53 Gy markedly decreased the local recurrence rate, however, these treatments failed to improve the 5 year survival rate significantly. Recently the efficacy of a postoperative chemotherapy was observed in a randomized clinical trial. The administration of methyl-CCNU, Vincristine and 5-fluorouracil after surgical resection of rectal cancer improved both the disease-free survival and the survival rate. Another randomized study showed a benefit of combined post-operative radiotherapy and chemotherapy with methyl-CCNU and 5-FU. Advantages and disadvantages of preoperative irradiation treatment and postoperative irradiation treatment are discussed.
Abstract: In spite of the improvements in surgical techniques and intensive care, no important benefit in the prognosis of patients with gastric carcinoma has been attained in the last twenty years. Different adjuvant treatment protocols have been proposed in an attempt to improve upon the results obtained with surgery only. In western countries, the FAM chemotherapeutic regimen is one on the most widely used for the treatment of advanced gastric carcinoma. In 1982 the G.I. GROUP of the EORTC proposed a modification (FAM2) to the original FAM as an adjuvant treatment in a controlled clinical study for gastric carcinoma. It is still too early to determine any therapeutic advantages of FAM2 in this protocol. Although the FAM2 regimen is fairly well tolerated, there is some toxicity which, however, seems to be slightly higher than in the regular FAM. It remains to be seen if this is a reasonable price to pay for still unknown therapeutic advantages. In view of the scarcity of available data in this field and the conflicting results which have emerged so far, the results of our study are awaited with great interest.
Abstract: A randomized clinical trial was conducted by the European Organization for Research and Treatment for Cancer (EORTC) Gastrointestinal Cancer Cooperative Group to study the effectiveness of irradiation therapy administered in a dosage of 34.5 Gy, divided into 15 daily doses of 2.3 Gy each before radical surgery for rectal cancer (T2, T3, T4, NX, MO). Four hundred sixty-six patients were entered in the clinical trial between June 1976 and September 1981. Tolerance and side effects of preoperative irradiation were acceptable. The overall 5-year survival rates were similar in both groups. When considering only the 341 patients treated by surgery with a curative aim, the 5-year survival rates were 59.1% and 69.1% in the control group and in the combined modality group, respectively (p = 0.08). The local recurrence rates at 5 years were 30% and 15% in the control group and the adjuvant radiotherapy group, respectively (p = 0.003). Although this study did not show preoperative radiotherapy to have a statistically significant benefit on overall survival, it does have a clear effect on local control of rectal cancer. Therefore, before performing radical surgery, this adjuvant therapy should be administered to patients who have locally extended rectal cancer.
Abstract: All randomized controlled trials of adjuvant therapy of colorectal cancer, published up to December 1986 in English, were reviewed. Eight trials compared radiotherapy groups with control groups in rectal cancer (3062 patients), and 17 trials compared chemotherapy groups with control groups in colorectal cancer (6791 patients). The results of trials testing radiotherapy or chemotherapy were combined. Fluorouracil-containing regimens resulted in a small benefit of therapy in terms of overall survival, with a mortality odds ratio of 0.83 in favor of therapy (95% confidence interval, 0.70 to 0.98). All other combinations of trials failed to show statistically significant differences between treated and control patients, even though the odds of death tended to be slightly lower in treated patients, especially those with rectal tumors. Some overall survival benefit from adjuvant therapy cannot be excluded, but it is likely small. Such small benefit, if real, would be far from negligible in a common case of malignancy with long survival expectancy. Trials much larger than those published up to now are needed.
Abstract: The Mantel-Haenszel test provides a straightforward method to combine results from several clinical trials when only summary information, such as the proportion of deaths, is available for each trial. More efficient tests, such as the stratified logrank test, should be used if the survival and censoring times are known for all individuals, but in practice, the cost and effort of obtaining this information may be prohibitive. The purpose of this paper is to derive a general expression for the asymptotic relative efficiency (ARE) of the Mantel-Haenszel test with respect to the stratified logrank test, and to compute the ARE in situations which are likely to be of practical interest. The results show that under realistic assumptions about the survival distribution, losses to follow-up and duration of accrual, the ARE frequently exceeds 80 per cent. An example is given to show the usefulness of the approach when combining proportions of deaths from several cancer clinical trials.
Abstract: In spite of the improvements in surgical techniques and intensive care therapy, no appreciable improvement in the prognosis for patients with colorectal cancer has been made in recent years. Several types of adjuvant treatment, including radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and immunotherapy, have therefore been proposed and used in clinical trials, mainly in the United States and western Europe. The results obtained by the Gastrointestinal Group of the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC), using preoperative radiation therapy with 3450 rads, are reported here; this therapy results in a reduction in the number of local recurrences and also appears to prolong the five-year survival period, although a longer follow-up is required to confirm this. According to the Gastrointestinal Tumor Study Group (GITSG), postoperative radiation therapy with chemotherapy seems to prolong the tumor-free interval in stages B2 and C when compared to surgery alone. Nonspecific immunotherapy does not appear to improve surgical results either in terms of local recurrences or survival. Some clinical trials suggest that systemic polychemotherapy benefit subgroups of patients with colorectal cancer. Toxicity is still very high, however; 5-FU is the more active and safe single agent but, due to the low response rate, it appears essential to identify new, more active drugs. Particular attention has been focused recently on prophylactic infusion chemotherapy of the liver, and clinical trials are now being made by several groups, including the EORTC. Preliminary results seem to show a reduced incidence of liver metastases in patients infused with 5-FU after radical surgery. Adjuvant therapy in colorectal cancer patients undergoing radical surgery has so far given encouraging results. Future results are awaited with optimism, but they must be achieved through prospective clinical trials conducted by well-organized cooperative groups.
Abstract: Using an in vitro double labeling technique with two different levels of 3H-thymidine, the duration of the phase of DNA synthesis (S) and the labeling index (LI) were measured in the colorectal mucosa of three groups of patients: patients with colorectal neoplasms (adenomas and/or adenocarcinomas), patients with inflammatory bowel disease, and a control group of patients without gastrointestinal pathology. In those patients with colorectal neoplasms, samples were obtained from both the neoplastic mucosa and from the normal appearing mucosa at various distances from the lesions. One-way analyses of variance were used to test the equality of mean S-phase duration and LI in the various types of tissues. S-phase duration was significantly longer in the tumor than in the unaffected mucosa of patients with adenocarcinoma (18.65 hours +/- 2.3 versus 10.13 hours +/- 1.26 P less than 0.0001). However, S-phase duration was significantly longer in the unaffected mucosa of cancer patients than in the mucosa of patients without gastrointestinal pathology (10.58 hours +/- 1.84 versus 7.91 hours +/- 0.46, P = 0.013). Similarly, LI was significantly higher in the unaffected mucosa of patients with adenoma and adenocarcinoma than in the mucosa of patients without gastrointestinal pathology (19.1% +/- 3.0 versus 9.5% +/- 2.2, P less than 0.0001). There was a highly significant trend to a progressive increase of LI from flat histologically normal appearing mucosas to inflammatory mucosas, adenomas, and adenocarcinomas (P less than 0.0001). These results suggest that increased S-phase duration is specifically related to cancer. In mucosa without histologic sign of malignancy, an increased S-phase duration would indicate that the malignant process has started. An increased LI would appear to relate to the selective advantage that rapidly proliferating cells hold over less proliferating ones.
Abstract: To improve surgical results of potentially operable rectal cancer (T2, T3, T4, Mo), the European Organization for Research on Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) conducted a two-arm randomized clinical trial to evaluate the effect of administering radiotherapy before radical surgery. Four hundred ten patients were allocated to be treated either by surgery alone or by 34.5 Gy of radiotherapy (in 19 days overall) followed by surgery. The tolerance of the adjuvant radiation therapy was fairly good. The 5-year survival rate was 65% overall and showed no difference between both therapeutic regimens. Similarly, the metastases-free rate was the same in both groups. In contrast, the preoperative radiation therapy showed a marked effect on local control of the disease, the comparison of the time to local recurrence being highly significant between the two treatment groups (P = 0.001). The proportion of patients free of local recurrence at 5 years was 85% in the combined treatment versus 65% in the group of patients treated by surgery alone.
Abstract: To improve surgical results of potentially operable rectal cancer, the European Organization on Research and Treatment of Cancer conducted a two-arm randomized clinical trial to compare the efficiency of preoperative administration of radiotherapy, with or without 5-fluorouracil before radical surgery. Two hundred forty-seven eligible patients were admitted from November 1972 through April 1976. The overall survival observed in the group treated with preoperative radiotherapy appears to be better than in the group of patients where preoperative combined modality was administered. Five-year survival is 59% versus 46% with a marginal statistical significance of P = 0.06. Although the combined modality arm had a higher incidence of side effects and postoperative deaths, it had a greater effect than the radiotherapy-alone arm in controlling the disease process, mainly distant metastases to the liver with a result bordering on statistical significance (P = 0.07). The incidence of nonmalignant and intercurrent deaths were higher in the combined modality group, whereas deaths due to malignancy were higher in the radiotherapy-alone group. Observing more stringent selection in disease and patients' criteria, side effects and intercurrent deaths can be effectively reduced with further improvement in adjuvant therapy results.
Abstract: In vitro determination of S phase duration and labeling index were performed, in tumor and normal tissues, in 15 patients with rectal and colon cancer to determine if these cell cycle parameters can predict the clinical course of the disease. Microscopic analyses of the tumor and adequate follow-up were obtained for all patients. S phase duration and labeling index did not exhibit any obvious correlations with age, sex, tumor localization, Duke's classification or other microscopic prognostic features; neither did they show any difference between patients alive without cancer 5 yr after initial treatment and those dead from cancer or other causes.
Abstract: We studied the relation between an institution's degree of participation in a multicenter clinical trial and the quality of its participation. The quality of participation was judged on the basis of the percentage of patients entered into the trial who were in fact eligible, who were treated in accordance with the protocol, and for whom the appropriate forms were received. Those who satisfied these criteria were termed "valid" patients. Institutions were divided into two groups, "major participants" and "minor participants," according to the number of patients they entered in the trial. In a detailed analysis of a multicenter trial of chemotherapy for soft-tissue sarcoma, we found that major participants had a significantly higher percentage of valid patients than did minor participants (81 per cent vs. 39 per cent) and that the minor participants were actually detrimental to the study from both scientific and administrative viewpoints. These results suggest that institutions should not participate in multicenter studies unless they can enter some predetermined minimal number of patients per year.
Abstract: We report the prognostic importance of strength of reaction to BCG, tumor histology and clinical factors in patients with previously untreated high-risk (Clark, III, IV and V) primary malignant melanoma. One hundred and one such patients receive high-dose BCG (1 x 10(8) viable units) by Heaf gun as an adjuvant to standardized primary surgery according to EORTC Protocol 18741. Univariate analysis of disease-free interval (DFI) indicates that the degree of maximum reaction to BCG (p = 0.0003), Breslow thickness (p = 0.0003) and Clark level (p = 0.002) are highly significant prognostic factors. When a multivariate model using Cox's proportional hazard regression was used for DFI, the degree of maximum reaction to BCG and Breslow thickness were by far the most significant criteria. A prognostic equation wa obtained to predict DFI from maximum BCG reaction and Breslow thickness. From analysis of the "scores" calculated in this way it appears that the two variables act independently. This technique permits the determination of values that are predictive of DFI and discriminate between subgroups of patients with different DFI characteristics (5 groups, p less than 0.0001). This exercise was repeated for survival and similar results were obtained. The degree of a patient's immune reaction to BCG administered therapeutically is of paramount importance in determining the likelihood of survival. This factor and the Breslow thickness can be integrated to produce a mathematical equation which accurately predicts survival for appropriately treated melanoma patients.
