Abílio Pereira Pacheco (2011) Simulation Analysis of a Wildland Fire Suppression System Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, s/n 4200-465 Porto PORTUGAL: Abstract: In the year 2010 the Porto district forest fire department had 7462 incidents and ¼ of those were rekindles or false alarms; 178 aerial resources as well as more than two thousand firefighting squads were involved reaching a direct cost of over one hundred and sixty thousand euros.
During the most critical period, every 85 minutes along the day, the commitment of resources in false alarms undermined the response capability, risking lives of fire fighters and contributing strongly to the value losses in the burned areas.
Throughout this investigation, we sought to reach a better understanding of these phenomena. We wanted to verify if there was evidence that in the days with more ignitions, the firefighters were compelled to abandon prematurely the fire mop up operations, thus promoting more rekindles. We also looked to understand its impact, along with the effect of fire false alarms, on the available resources. Finally, we explored the relation between the minimal resources level and the variation, which is significant, of the daily ignitions number.
To achieve this objective, we developed a very simple suppression system, which was then implemented in a simulation model.
Available data allowed us to conclude that 10% of all forest fires, in successive generations, were rekindles. These rekindles had their origin in only 4% of primary fires in consequence of deficient mop up actions, especially in days with a higher number of ignitions. With the simulation model, we found indications that its impact cannot be ignored, particularly if combined with the excessive number of false alarms.
On the other hand, the preliminary conclusion, that the impact of the fluctuation of daily occurrences on the minimal resources level needed appears to be linear, simplifies planning; evidence was also found of its convergence, with the best trade-off between firefighting investment and loss of goods and services on the affected area.
Finally and without searching for it, we found that the utilization rate of available resources tends to be less than 20%, confirming the expected values for emergency services.
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