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Rafael D Loyola 

Departamento de Ecologia.
Instituto de Ciências Biológicas - Universidade Federal de Goiás
Cx. Postal 131, CEP 74001-970 - Goiânia, GO - Brazil.
rdiasloyola[at]gmail[dot]com
I lead the Conservation Biogeography Lab (www.wix.com/rdloyola/lab) which brings together researchers and students who seek to further understanding in the fields of theoretical and applied ecology and conservation biology.

My main interest is in Conservation Biogeography and Spatial Conservation Prioritization, especially on (1) The identification of priority areas for biodiversity conservation at different spatial scales. In particular, how the inclusion of species ecological and evolutionary traits, along with economic costs of biodiversity protection enhances conservation assesment and planning; and (2) theoretical and methodological aspects of Species Distribution Models (SDMs), and its implications to conservation biology and reserve network design. I have a especial interest on how climate change will affect species distribution and how spatial analyses can improve SDMs.

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Books

2004

Journal articles

2012
2011
2010
 
DOI 
J A F Diniz, J C Nabout, L M Bini, R D Loyola, T F Rangel, D Nogues-Bravo, M B Araujo (2010)  Ensemble forecasting shifts in climatically suitable areas for Tropidacris cristata (Orthoptera : Acridoidea: Romaleidae)   INSECT CONSERVATION AND DIVERSITY 3: 3. 213-221  
Abstract: 1. The effects of climate change on species' ranges have been usually inferred using niche-based models creating bioclimatic envelopes that are projected into geographical space. Here, we apply an ensemble forecasting approach for niche models in the Neotropical grasshopper Tropidacris cristata (Acridoidea: Romaleidae). A novel protocol was used to partition and map the variation in modelled ranges due to niche models, Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCM), and emission scenarios. 2. We used 112 records of T. cristata and four climatic variables to model the species' niche using five niche models, four AOGCMs and two emission scenarios. Combinations of these effects (50 cross-validations for each of the 15 subsets of the environmental variables) were used to estimate and map the occurrence frequencies (EOF) across all analyses. A three-way anova was used to partition and map the sources of variation. 3. The projections for 2080 show that the range edges of the species are likely to remain approximately constant, but shifts in maximum EOF are forecasted. Suitable climatic conditions tend to disappear from central areas of Amazon, although this depends on the AOGCM and the niche model. Most of the variability around the mapped consensus projections came from using distinct niche models and AOGCMs. 4. Although our analyses are restricted to a single species, they provide new conceptual and methodological insights in the application of ensemble forecasting and variance partition approaches to understand the origins of uncertainty in studies assessing species responses to climate change in the tropics.
Notes: Times Cited: 0
2009
J A F Diniz, G de Oliveira, L M Bini, R D Loyola, J C Nabout, T F L V B Rangel (2009)  Conservation biogeography and climate change in the brazilian cerrado   NATUREZA & CONSERVACAO 7: 2. 100-112 OCT  
Abstract: Many studies on climate changes have been developed based on experimental approaches at local scales, despite the much broader geographical scales at which these changes are expected to affect biodiversity patterns. Here we applied an ensemble forecasting approach to model the effects of climate change on diversity patterns found in the Brazilian Cerrado, using six different niche model techniques to evaluate potential shifts in geographic ranges of 753 species of vertebrates in the year 2050. We used the prediction of three global circulation models (GCMs) to project species distributions in 2050. Our analyses provide evidences of shifts in species geographic ranges and turnover rates in the Brazilian Cerrado, especially at location of maximum species richness. Although future conservation conflicts are difficult to predict because of the uncertainties (and actually lack of data) in spatial dynamics of future expansions of human activities throughout the biome, our analyses show that expansions of species' distribution may encompass regions currently used for cattle ranching activities.
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2008
2007
2006
2005

Book chapters

2012
2006
2004
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