Abstract: Contents: xD; xD;I. Politics, science, and law in justice debates xD;2. Dangers and thresholds in climate change and the implications for justice / Stephen H. Schneider and Janica Lane xD;3. Adaptation under the UN framework convention on climate change : the international legal framework / M. J. Mace xD; xD;II Aspects of fairness in adaptation xD;4. Exploring the social justice implications of adaptation and vulnerability / Kirstin Dow, Roger E. Kasperson and Maria Bohn xD;5. Is it appropriate to identify winners and losers? / Robin Leichenko and Karen O'Brien xD;6. Climate change, insecurity and injustice / Jon Barnett xD;7. Adaptation : who pays whom? / Paul Baer xD;8. A welfare theoretic analysis of climate change inequities / Neil A. Leary xD; xD;III. Fairness in adaptation responses xD;9. Equity in national adaptation programs of action (NAPAs) : the case of Bangladesh / Saleemul Huq and Mizan R. Khan xD;10. Justice in adaptation to climate change in Tanzania / Jouni Paavola xD;11. Adaptation and equity in resource dependent societies / David S. G. Thomas and Chasca Twyman xD;12. Extreme weather and burden sharing in Hungary / Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer and Anna Vari xD; xD;IV. Conclusion xD;13. Multifaceted justice in adaptation to climate change /
Abstract: Adaptation is a process by which individuals, communities and countries seek to cope with the consequences of climate change. The process of adaptation is not new; the idea of incorporating future climate risk into policy-making is. While our understanding of climate change and its potential impacts has become clearer, the availability of practical guidance on adaptation has not kept pace. The development of the Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) is intended to help provide the rapidly evolving process of adaptation policy-making with a much-needed roadmap. Ultimately, the purpose of the APF is to support adaptation processes to protect - and enhance - human well-being in the face of climate change. This volume will be invaluable for everyone working on climate change adaptation and policy-making.
Abstract: Research indicates that climate change will exacerbate many of the problems faced by the Mediterranean Region. The authors offer practical strategies for adapting to and mitigating the effects of climate change from a socio-economic perspective.
Abstract: Changes in climate and climate variability have an effect on people's behaviour around the world, and public institutions have an important part to play in influencing our ability to respond to and plan for climate risk. We may be able to reduce climate risk by seeking to mitigate the threat on the one hand, and by adapting to a changed climate on the other. Another theme of the book is the integrated role of adaptation and mitigation in framing issues and performing analyses. Adaptation costs fall most heavily on the poor and special attention needs to be paid to adaptation by the poorest populations. An integrating framework is also presented to provide the context for an expansive typology of terms to apply to adaptation. The 12 papers collected here use methods from a variety of disciplines and focus on different time frames for decision making, from short term to the very long term. Readership: Technically trained readers familiar with the policy issues surrounding climate change and interested in learning the scientific underpinnings of issues related to societal adaptation.
Abstract: Future changes in climate pose significant challenges for society, not the least of which is how best to adapt to observed and potential future impacts of these changes to which the world is already committed. Adaptation is a dynamic social process: the ability of societies to adapt is determined, in part, by the ability to act collectively. This article reviews emerging perspectives on collective action and social capital and argues that insights from these areas inform the nature of adaptive capacity and normative prescriptions of policies of adaptation. Specifically, social capital is increasingly understood within economics to have public and private elements, both of which are based on trust, reputation, and reciprocal action. The public-good aspects of particular forms of social capital are pertinent elements of adaptive capacity in interacting with natural capital and in relation to the performance of institutions that cope with the risks of changes in climate. Case studies are presented of present-day collective action for coping with extremes in weather in coastal areas in Southeast Asia and of community-based coastal management in the Caribbean. These cases demonstrate the importance of social capital framing both the public and private institutions of resource management that build resilience in the face of the risks of changes in climate. These cases illustrate, by analogy, the nature of adaptation processes and collective action in adapting to future changes in climate.
Abstract: Whilst mitigation has dominated policy and research agendas in recent years there is an increasing recognition that communities also need to be preparing for change that is unavoidable, partially a consequence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases already emitted to the atmosphere. The perceived need for adaptation has also received additional impetus through the high public profile now given to the impacts of current day weather variability, particularly the significant economic and social costs associated with recent extreme events. However, being a relatively new focus for both research and policy communities; practical evidence of the extent, feasibility, efficiency, and cost effectiveness of potential adaptation options remains largely lacking. In response, this paper seeks to make a contribution to this embryonic but evolving knowledge base by considering the theoretical underpinnings of adaptation and ultimately how this translates into practice âin the real worldâ. The analytical commentary, based on a bottom-up approach involving iterative engagement with key stakeholders and experts, reflects on the identification of measures that are either innovative or examples of good practice in reducing or transferring climate risks, as well as considering those âenablingâ institutional structures and processes that act to support implementation on the ground. The paper concludes by synthesising the key findings to date in order to highlight some of the opportunities for, and barriers to, adaptation activity.
Abstract: Resilience and vulnerability represent two related yet different approaches to understanding
the response of systems and actors to change; to shocks and surprises, as well as slow creeping changes.
Their respective origins in ecological and social theory largely explain the continuing differences in
approach to social-ecological dimensions of change. However, there are many areas of strong convergence.
This paper explores the emerging linkages and complementarities between the concepts of resilience and
vulnerability to identify areas of synergy. We do this with regard to theory, methodology, and application.
The paper seeks to go beyond just recognizing the complementarities between the two approaches to
demonstrate how researchers are actively engaging with each field to coproduce new knowledge, and to
suggest promising areas of complementarity that are likely to further research and action in the field.
Abstract: Using the FUND model, an impact assessment is conducted over the 21st century for rises in sea level of up to 2-m/century and a range of socio-economic scenarios downscaled to the national level, including the four SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) storylines. Unlike a traditional impact assessment, this analysis considers impacts after balancing the costs of retreat with the costs of protection, including the effects of coastal squeeze. While the costs of sea-level rise increase with greater rise due to growing damage and protection costs, the model suggests that an optimum response in a benefit-cost sense remains widespread protection of developed coastal areas, as identified in earlier analyses. The socio-economic scenarios are also important in terms of influencing these costs. In terms of the four components of costs considered in FUND, protection dominates, with substantial costs from wetland loss under some scenarios. The regional distribution of costs shows that a few regions experience most of the costs, especially East Asia, North America, Europe and South Asia. Importantly, this analysis suggests that protection is much more likely and rational than is widely assumed, even with a large rise in sea level. This is underpinned by the strong economic growth in all the SRES scenarios: without this growth, the benefits of protection are significantly reduced. It should also be noted that some important limitations to the analysis are discussed, which collectively suggest that protection may not be as widespread as suggested in the FUND results.
Abstract: Greater recognition of the seriousness of global environmental change has led to an increase in research
that assesses the vulnerability of households, communities and regions to changing environmental or
economic conditions. So far, however, there has been relatively little attention given to how assessments
can be conducted in ways that help build capacity for local communities to understand and find their
own solutions to their problems. This paper reports on an approach that was designed and used to work
with a local grass roots organization in the Solomon Islands to promote inclusivity and participation in
decision-making and to build the capacity of the organization to reduce the vulnerability of communities
to drivers of change. The process involved working collaboratively with the organization and training its
members to conduct vulnerability assessments with communities using participatory and deliberative
methods. To make best use of the learning opportunities provided by the research process, specific
periods for formal reflection were incorporated for the three key stakeholders involved: the primary
researchers; research assistants; and community members. Overall, the approach: (1) promoted
learning about the current situation in Kahua and encouraged deeper analysis of problems; (2) built
capacity for communities to manage the challenges they were facing; and (3) fostered local ownership
and responsibility for problems and set precedents for future participation in decision-making. While
the local organization and the communities it serves still face significant challenges, the research
approach set the scene for greater local participation and effort tomaintain and enhance livelihoods and
wellbeing. The outcomes highlight the need for greater emphasis on embedding participatory
approaches in vulnerability assessments for communities to benefit fully from the process.
Abstract: Vulnerability and resilience constitute different but overlapping research themes embraced by
sustainability science. As practiced within this science, the two research themes appear to coalesce
around one of the foundational pivots of sustainability, the coupled humanâenvironment system. They
differ in regard to their attention to two other pivots, environmental services and the tradeoffs of these
services with human outcomes. In this essay I briefly review the emergence of sustainability science and
the three foundational pivots relevant to vulnerability and resilience. I outline the distinctions and
similarities between the two research themes foremost as practiced within sustainability science and
especially in regard to the attention given to the three pivots. I conclude with the observation that
improvement in the capacity of vulnerability and resilience research to inform sustainability science
may hinge on their linkages in addressing tradeoffs.
Abstract: This paper investigates whether and to what extent a wide range of actors in the UK are adapting to climate change, and whether this is evidence of a social transition. We document evidence of over 300 examples of early adopters of adaptation practice to climate change in the UK. These examples span a range of activities from small adjustments (or coping), to building adaptive capacity, to implementing actions and to creating deeper systemic change in public and private organisations in a range of sectors. We find that adaptation in the UK has been dominated by government initiatives and has principally occurred in the form of research into climate change impacts. These government initiatives have stimulated a further set of actions at other scales in public agencies, regulatory agencies and regional government (and the devolved administrations), though with little real evidence of climate change adaptation initiatives trickling down to local government level. The sectors requiring significant investment in large scale infrastructure have invested more heavily than those that do not in identifying potential impacts and adaptations. Thus we find a higher level of adaptation activity by the water supply and flood defence sectors. Sectors that are not dependent on large scale infrastructure appear to be investing far less effort and resources in preparing for climate change. We conclude that the UK government-driven top-down targeted adaptation approach has generated anticipatory action at low cost in some areas. We also conclude that these actions may have created enough niche activities to allow for diffusion of new adaptation practices in response to real or perceived climate change. These results have significant implications for how climate policy can be developed to support autonomous adaptors in the UK and other countries.
Abstract: Climate change may have dramatic consequences for several regions. Most vulnerable are fragile countries with limited capacities to adapt. Without timely action, the stresses induced by climate change may increase the risk of violent conflict. Designing and implementing adaptation strategies is becoming imperative to mitigate conflict potentials and prevent escalation. This article will discuss existing national and international approaches with focus on the UNFCCC process. It will be emphasized that a purely technical understanding of adaptation is insufficient to cope with the socio-political consequences of climate change. Indeed, adaptation may even contribute to conflict potentials if ill-designed. Thus, it is necessary to develop conflict-sensitive approaches complemented by internationally supported capacity development measures.
Abstract: While corporate adaptation strategies in response to climate change have been characterized, the determinants of adaptation have not been comprehensively analyzed. Knowledge of these determinants is particularly useful for policy makers to provide favorable conditions in support of corporate adaptation measures. Based on unique data from a survey of Swiss ski lift operators, this paper empirically examines such determinants at the business level. Our econometric analysis with linear regression and count data models finds a positive influence of the awareness of possible climate change effects on the scope of corporate adaptation. Surprisingly, no significant influence of the vulnerability to climate change effects on the scope of adaptation could be found. Finally, the dependency on the affected business and the ability to adapt influence the specific strategic directions of corporate adaptation. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: Many decisions concerning long-lived investments already need to take into account climate change. But doing so is not easy for at least two reasons. First, due to the rate of climate change, new infrastructure will have to be able to cope with a large range of changing climate conditions, which will make design more difficult and construction more expensive. Second, uncertainty in future climate makes it impossible to directly use the output of a single climate model as an input for infrastructure design, and there are good reasons to think that the needed climate information will not be available soon. Instead of optimizing based on the climate conditions projected by models, therefore, future infrastructure should be made more robust to possible changes in climate conditions. This aim implies that users of climate information must also change their practices and decision-making frameworks, for instance by adapting the uncertainty-management methods they currently apply to exchange rates or R&D outcomes. Five methods are examined: (i) selecting "no-regret" strategies that yield benefits even in absence of climate change; (ii) favouring reversible and flexible options; (iii) buying "safety margins" in new investments; (iv) promoting soft adaptation strategies, including long-term prospective: and (v) reducing decision time horizons. Moreover, it is essential to consider both negative and positive side-effects and externalities of adaptation measures. Adaptation-mitigation interactions also call for integrated design and assessment of adaptation and mitigation policies, which are often developed by distinct communities. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: This paper is a response to a recent special issue of Regional Environmental Change, "Quantifying vulnerability to drought from different disciplinary perspectives" (vol. 8, number 4, 2008). In this paper, we examine some of the challenges facing efforts to understand vulnerability to drought through quantification as they are manifest in some of the articles in this special issue.
Abstract: This paper presents and applies a conceptual framework to address human vulnerability to climate change. Drawing upon social risk management and asset-based approaches, the conceptual framework provides a unifying lens to examine links between risks, adaptation, and vulnerability. The result is an integrated approach to increase the capacity of society to manage climate risks with a view to reduce the vulnerability of households and maintain or increase the opportunities for sustainable development. We identify 'no-regrets' adaptation interventions, meaning actions that generate net social benefits under all future scenarios of climate change and impacts. We also make the case for greater support for community-based adaptation and social protection and propose a research agenda. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: The UKCIP02 climate change scenarios have become the standard reference for climate change in the UK since their release in 2002. This paper describes and reflects on the ways in which they have been applied. It then identifies some strengths, weaknesses and barriers to their application, and extracts key lessons that may inform the development and provision of future climate change scenarios. Analysis of the application of UKCIP02 shows that the scenarios have been used primarily as a Communication device, as well as for scientific research and to inform policy and decision-making on climate change. They have played a critical role in raising awareness on climate change and in engaging organisations in the need to adapt. Their presentation in an accessible style, and their availability in a variety of formats, greatly facilitated their uptake. However, analysis has also revealed weaknesses which served as barriers to their uptake. Some of these, such as file format and accessibility issues, were readily overcome through technical solutions. Others, such as the issue of how to use uncertain information in decision-making, have only been partially addressed and remain an outstanding challenge for future scenario packages. Two key lessons have emerged which may benefit the provision of future climate scenarios in the UK and elsewhere. First, it is not enough to simply make climate change scenarios available. Their provision must be accompanied by ongoing guidance and support to ensure widespread and appropriate uptake. Second, on-going dialogue between those providing scenarios and the communities using them is fundamental to constructively meet the challenges associated with delivering credible scenarios that balance user requirements and expectations with what the science can deliver. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: Adaptation to climate change and disaster risk reduction both focus on society-risk dynamics. However, each field does so through different actors and institutions, andwith different time horizons, policy frameworks and patterns inmind. Recently, dialogue between the adaptation and disaster risk-reduction communities has focused on creating stronger links between the two by putting greater effort into learning from each other and collaborating conceptually and practically. In part, this common interest has come from a simultaneous recognition that risk reduction requires a farmore holistic approach than has previously been applied. Both adaptation and disaster risk reduction require the same underlying aims, namely, to reduce vulnerability and create sustainable and flexible longterm strategies to reduce the risk of adverse impacts. However, neither is able to address these single-handedly. In both adaptation and disaster risk reduction, there is an implicit acknowledgement that risk is part of everyday life, and thus social development plays a vital role. An outstanding question for these communities to address is whether a convergence of the two tracks is desirable. Furthermore, if such a convergence were to occur, what forms would it take and what outcomes could be expected.
Abstract: Indigenous Peoples of British Columbia have always had to accommodate and respond to environmental change. Oral histories, recollections of contemporary elders, and terms in indigenous languages all reflect peoples' responses to such change, especially since the coming of Europeans. Very recently, however, many people have noted signs of greater environmental change and challenges to their resilience than they have faced in the past: species declines and new appearances; anomalies in weather patterns; and declining health of forests and grasslands. These observations and perspectives are important to include in discussions and considerations of global climate change.
Abstract: This paper develops definitions of adaptation and successful adaptation to climate change, with a view to evaluating adaptations. There is little consensus on the definition of adapting to climate change in existing debates or on the criteria by which adaptation actions can be deemed successful or sustainable. In this paper, a variant of the Delphi technique is used to elicit expert opinion on a definition of successful adaptation to climate change. Through an iterative process, expert respondents coalesced around a definition based on risk and vulnerability and agreed that a transparent and acceptable definition should reflect impacts on sustainability. According to the final definition, agreed by the Delphi panel, successful adaptation is any adjustment that reduces the risks associated with climate change, or vulnerability to climate change impacts, to a predetermined level, without compromising economic, social, and environmental sustainability.
Abstract: Abstract A questionnaire on the perception of climate change and the impact of climate change was distributed among winegrowers in France, Germany, and Italy. These countries are located in three macro-climatic regions that experienced different patterns of climatic change in the twentieth centuryâAtlantic, transition to Continental and Mediterranean. The majority of winegrowers perceived changing climatic conditions in the last few decades. The characterization of these changes is consistent with results obtained by the analysis of long-term trends in climatic records. The winegrowers noted impacts on harvestable quantities (mainly in Italy), must quality, and risks of pests and diseases. The majority of respondents (66%) indicated an impact on wine quality, which was perceived as quality improvement in 55% of the cases. Perceived impacts on pests and diseases were reported in 56% of the responses. A strong majority of this group (80%) also reported increasing threats. Perceived climatic change and its noticeable impacts has led to growing interest in adaptation options, combined with a need for more information, among winegrowers. Thus, the transfer of technical knowledge from scientific research to practice is necessary for adaptation. Plans for adaptation by a change of wine varieties were reported with substantially different results among the regions. A majority of German growers said they would consider changing varieties to adapt to warming temperatures, while only a minority of the Italian and French growers said they would consider such changes. However, readiness to adopt adaptation measures is correlated with the degree of changes already planned, independent of climatic change.
Abstract: Geographers have a long history of contributing to basic, use-inspired, and applied research on one of the greatest challenges humanity has ever faced: global climate change. Their contributions cut across all the major traditions and subfields within geography, have aimed at a variety of scales, and have connected to the scholarship of other disciplines. Building on these past accomplishments, this paper argues that geographers must continue their interdisciplinary endeavors and engage nowâeven more so than beforeâin practice-relevant research, particularly in the area of the human dimensions of climate change. The paper points to a range of critical research needs in the area of vulnerability and adaptation, particularly focused on the US, and argues for rapid capacity building and far-reaching changes in the incentive structure for geographers to engage in practice-relevant research and in interaction with policy-makers and resource managers at the science-practice interface.
Abstract: Many adaptation strategies focus on improving short-term capacities to cope with environmental change, but ignore the possibility that they might inadvertently increase vulnerability to unforeseen changes in the future. To help develop more effective long-term strategies, we present a conceptual framework of adaptation. The framework emphasizes that in order to ensure that existing problems are not exacerbated, adaptation must: (1) address both human-induced and biophysical drivers of undesired ecological change; (2) maintain a diversity of future response options; and (3) nurture the kinds of human capacities that enable the uptake of those response options. These requirements are often not met when adaptation strategies rely on technological fixes, which tend to concentrate on coping with the biophysical symptoms of problems rather than addressing human behavioral causes. Furthermore, to develop effective, long-term adaptation, greater emphasis is needed on strategies that enhance, rather than erode, the human values, skills, and behaviors conducive to sustainable activities. Participatory approaches to environmental stewardship are part of the solution to this problem.
Abstract: Climate change is disrupting and will increasingly disrupt the geographies of people, places, and spaces. Countries such as Kiribati, originally inhabited by the Micronesians between 3000 BC and 1300 AD, and towns such as Shishmaref, Alaska, a traditional Inupiaq Eskimo fishing village with 400 years of settlement are planning for relocation. Vulnerable city and other authorities that are beginning to plan for `managed retreat'(1) (the relocation of communities and ecosystems) are only nowstarting to insert limited policy interventions such as setback regulations into their plans. In this commentary we begin to problematize the way most planners and policy makers are currently thinking about the managed retreat of people, cherished places, and spaces. We suggest how, through psychology research and literature, policies and plans for managed retreat and place attachment should and could become joined up. Our argument is that, if future policies and plans for managed retreat are to be implemented successfully, a great deal of further work is required since in focusing on the more ecological, technical, and economic that is, physical aspects of relocation, they have neglected important psychological, symbolic, and particularly emotional aspects of healthy human habitatsödescribed by environmental psychologists as `place attachment'öand that a failure to address this crucial qualitative aspect of relocation may fundamentally undermine wider policy and planning initiatives on adaptation to climate change.
Abstract: While there is a recognised need to adapt to changing climatic conditions, there is an emerging discourse of limits to such adaptation. Limits are traditionally analysed as a set of immutable thresholds in biological, economic or technological parameters. This paper contends that limits to adaptation are endogenous to society and hence contingent on ethics, knowledge, attitudes to risk and culture. We review insights from history, sociology and psychology of risk, economics and political science to develop four propositions concerning limits to adaptation. First, any limits to adaptation depend on the ultimate goals of adaptation underpinned by diverse values. Second, adaptation need not be limited by uncertainty around future foresight of risk. Third, social and individual factors limit adaptation action. Fourth, systematic undervaluation of loss of places and culture disguises real, experienced but subjective limits to adaptation. We conclude that these issues of values and ethics, risk, knowledge and culture construct societal limits to adaptation, but that these limits are mutable.
Abstract: A questionnaire on the perception of climate change and the impact of climate change was distributed among winegrowers in France, Germany, and Italy. These countries are located in three macro-climatic regions that experienced different patterns of climatic change in the twentieth century-Atlantic, transition to Continental and Mediterranean. The majority of winegrowers perceived changing climatic conditions in the last few decades. The characterization of these changes is consistent with results obtained by the analysis of long-term trends in climatic records. The winegrowers noted impacts on harvestable quantities (mainly in Italy), must quality, and risks of pests and diseases. The majority of respondents (66%) indicated an impact on wine quality, which was perceived as quality improvement in 55% of the cases. Perceived impacts on pests and diseases were reported in 56% of the responses. A strong majority of this group (80%) also reported increasing threats. Perceived climatic change and its noticeable impacts has led to growing interest in adaptation options, combined with a need for more information, among winegrowers. Thus, the transfer of technical knowledge from scientific research to practice is necessary for adaptation. Plans for adaptation by a change of wine varieties were reported with substantially different results among the regions. A majority of German growers said they would consider changing varieties to adapt to warming temperatures, while only a minority of the Italian and French growers said they would consider such changes. However, readiness to adopt adaptation measures is correlated with the degree of changes already planned, independent of climatic change.
Abstract: Abstract While there is a recognised need to adapt to changing climatic conditions, there is an emerging discourse of limits to such adaptation. Limits are traditionally analysed as a set of immutable thresholds in biological, economic or technological parameters. This paper contends that limits to adaptation are endogenous to society and hence contingent on ethics, knowledge, attitudes to risk and culture. We review insights from history, sociology and psychology of risk, economics and political science to develop four propositions concerning limits to adaptation. First, any limits to adaptation depend on the ultimate goals of adaptation underpinned by diverse values. Second, adaptation need not be limited by uncertainty around future foresight of risk. Third, social and individual factors limit adaptation action. Fourth, systematic undervaluation of loss of places and culture disguises real, experienced but subjective limits to adaptation. We conclude that these issues of values and ethics, risk, knowledge and culture construct societal limits to adaptation, but that these limits are mutable.
Abstract: Adaptation was a core concept of twentieth-century cultural ecology. It is having a new life in the context of debates over climate change, particularly as it becomes more significant in public discourse and policy. In this third and final progress report, I identify ways in which geographers and others are currently using the concept of adaptation, tracing both continuities and discontinuities with its earlier heritage. Three differences that warrant attention are the new mitigation/adaptation binary, the deliberate and conscious nature of climate change adaptation, and the fact that the stimuli to which we are adapting are complex assemblages comprising more-than-climate. To 'retrofit' the concept for twenty-first-century conditions, we should avoid the limitations of some past uses, and enhance its operation with new techniques and approaches. I identify four threads in recent geographic research that enhance the retrofit: cultural research around climate; emphasis on everyday practices; attention to the contingencies of scale; and more-than-human/ more-than-nature theoretical conceptualizations
Abstract: The science of climate change is now well established. Predicted weather-related events like sea level rise, increased storm events, and extreme heat waves imply an urgent need for new approaches to settlement design to enable human and non-human species to adapt to these increased risks. A wide variety of policy responses are emerging at local and regional levels - from sustainable urban form, to alternative energy production and new approaches to biodiversity conservation. However. little attempt has been made to ensure that strategies to adapt to the inevitable impacts of enhanced climate change (such as additional open space to enable water inundation) support ongoing policies intended to mitigate local contributions to climate change (such as attempts to increase urban densities to reduce car dependency). In some cases mitigation and adaptation are complementary but in other cases these policy goals may conflict. This research examined leading case examples of land-use plans and policies designed to address climate change. Focusing predominantly on cases from the United States and Australia, we identified whether the policies address adaptation, mitigation or both and whether the practices put mitigation and adaptation in potential conflict with each other. We found that half of the actions identified contain potential conflicts to achieving adaptation and mitigation simultaneously. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: We tested two consequences of a currently influential theory based on the notion of seeing adaptations to climate change as local adjustments to deal with changing conditions within the constraints of the broader economic-social-political arrangements. The notion leaves no explicit role for the strength of personal beliefs in climate change and adaptive capacity. The consequences were: (i) adaptive action to climate change taken by an individual who is exposed to and sensitive to climate change is not influenced to a considerable degree by their strength of belief in climate change and (ii) adaptive action to climate change taken by an individual who is exposed to and sensitive to climate change is not influenced to a considerable degree by their strength of belief in an adaptive capacity. Data from a 2004 questionnaire of 1950 Swedish private individual forest owners, who were assumed exposed to and sensitive to climate change, were used. Strength of belief in climate change and adaptive capacities were found to be crucial factors for explaining observed differences in adaptation among Swedish forest owners. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: In many Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States, such as in Kiribati, formal national adaptation programmes are currently being operationalised. A key focus is enhancing the adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities through piloting of sectoral adaptation strategies such as diversifying water resources. This study argues that fundamental to water management and adaptation planning is the integration of people's cultural values attached to the assets/resources they control and utilise in their efforts to adapt to various stresses on water resources. The results from integrating cultural resources into a Sustainable Livelihoods Framework indicate that people's capacity to diversify is constrained by cultural processes negotiated in their daily lives that reinforced and reproduced hardships. Material resources provided personal significance when they were spent on maintaining social identity, expressed in recent times through the church. Thus fewer resources were available for pursuing a diversification strategy. Furthermore, power structures in the church delimited benefits to the individual, depriving people of their freedom to exercise autonomous agency and achieve personal wellbeing. The study demonstrates the significance of religion to adaptation. Moreover, it highlights the need to consider the relational aspects of assets, in conditioning how people access and utilise assets in pursuing adaptation strategies.
Abstract: The understanding that global climate change represents a profound threat to the health and well-being of human and nonhuman species worldwide is growing. This article examines the potential of communication and marketing interventions to influence population behavior in ways consistent with climate change prevention and adaptation objectives. Specifically, using a framework based on an ecologic model of public health, the paper examines: (1) the potential of communication and marketing interventions to influence population behaviors of concern, including support for appropriate public policies; (2) potential target audiences for such programs; and (3) the attributes of effective climate change messages. Communication and marketing interventions appear to have considerable potential to promote important population behavior change objectives, but there is an urgent need for additional translational research to effectively harvest this potential to combat climate change.
Abstract: A comprehensive understanding of the implications of extreme climate change requires an in-depth exploration of the perceptions and reactions of the affected stakeholder groups and the lay public. The project on "Atlantic sea level rise: Adaptation to imaginable worst-case climate change" (Atlantis) has studied one such case, the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and a subsequent 5-6 m sea-level rise. Possible methods are presented for assessing the societal consequences of impacts and adaptation options in selected European regions by involving representatives of pertinent stakeholders. Results of a comprehensive review of participatory integrated assessment methods with a view to their applicability in climate impact studies are summarized including Simulation-Gaming techniques, the Policy Exercise method, and the Focus Group technique. Succinct presentations of these three methods are provided together with short summaries of relevant earlier applications to gain insights into the possible design options. Building on these insights, four basic versions of design procedures suitable for use in the Atlantis project are presented. They draw on design elements of several methods and combine them to fit the characteristics and fulfill the needs of addressing the problem of extreme sea-level rise. The selected participatory techniques and the procedure designs might well be useful in other studies assessing climate change impacts and exploring adaptation options.
Abstract: Policy makers have now recognised the need to integrate thinking about climate change into all areas of public policy making. However, the discussion of 'climate policy integration' has tended to focus on mitigation decisions mostly taken at international and national levels. Clearly, there is also a more locally focused adaptation dimension to climate policy integration, which has not been adequately explored by academics or policy makers. Drawing on a case study of the UK, this paper adopts both a top-down and a bottom-up perspective to explore how far different sub-elements of policies within the agriculture, nature conservation and water sectors support or undermine potential adaptive responses. The top-down approach, which assumes that policies set explicit aims and objectives that are directly translated into action on the ground, combines a content analysis of policy documents with interviews with policy makers. The bottom-up approach recognises the importance of other actors in shaping policy implementation and involves interviews with actors in organisations within the three sectors. This paper reveals that neither approach offers a complete picture of the potentially enabling or constraining effects of different policies on future adaptive planning, but together they offer new perspectives on climate policy integration. These findings inform a discussion on how to implement climate policy integration, including auditing existing policies and 'climate proofing' new ones so they support rather than hinder adaptive planning. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: This paper explores the value of using community risk assessments (CRAs) for climate change adaptation. CRA refers to participatory methods to assess hazards, vulnerabilities and capacities in support of community-based disaster risk reduction, used by many NGOs, community-based organizations, and the Red Cross/Red Crescent. We review the evolution of climate change adaptation and community-based disaster risk reduction, and highlight the challenges of integrating global climate change into a bottom-up and place-based approach. Our analysis of CRAs carried out by various national Red Cross societies shows that CRAs can help address those challenges by fostering community engagement in climate risk reduction, particularly given that many strategies to deal with current climate risks also help to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Climate change can also be explicitly incorporated in CRAs by making better use of CRA tools to assess trends, and by addressing the notion of changing risks. However, a key challenge is to keep CRAs simple enough for wide application. This demands special attention in the modification of CRA tools; in the background materials and trainings for CRA facilitators; and in the guidance for interpretation of CRA outcomes. A second challenge is the application of a limited set of CRA results to guide risk reduction in other communities and to inform national and international adaptation policy. This requires specific attention for sampling and care in scaling up qualitative findings. Finally, stronger linkages are needed between organizations facilitating CRAs and suppliers of climate information, particularly addressing the translation of climate information to the community level. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: Climate change and sea-level rise (SLR) increasingly threaten the world's coastlines, managers at local, regional, state, and federal levels will need to plan and implement adaptation measures to cope with these impacts in order to continue to protect the economic, social, and environmental security of the state and of local communities. In this paper, we explore the information needs of California coastal managers as they begin confronting the growing risks from climate change. Through this case study we examine the challenges managers face presently, what information they use to perform their responsibilities, what additional information and other knowledge resources they may need to begin planning for climate change. We place our study into the broader context of the study of how science can best support policy-makers and resource managers as they begin to plan and prepare for adaptation to climate change. Based on extensive interview and survey research in the state, we find that managers prefer certain types of information and information sources and would benefit from various learning opportunities (in addition to that information) to make better use of available global change information. Coastal managers are concerned about climate change and willing to address it in their work, but require financial and technical assistance from other agencies at the state and federal level to do so. The study illustrates the strong need for boundary organizations to serve various intermediary functions between science and practice, especially in the context of adaptation to global climate change impacts. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: Solutions to environmental problems such as climate change, biodiversity/loss. and land and water resource degradation require long term integration of economic, social and environmental policies. This poses challenges to specialised, hierarchical public administration systems. The study reported here examined strategies, structures and processes to enable environmental policy integration in six Australian states and territories, and some federal arrangements. The study found that the most prominent success factors, barriers and gaps that affect environmental policy integration relate to leadership, long term embedding of environmental policy integration and implementation capacity Factors deserving further research and policy attention include leadership, cultural change and capacity building: embedding sustainability in structures and processes; development of a long term evidence based approach; strengthening decentralised implementation arrangements: and evaluation of policy integration initiatives.
Abstract: In this paper we show how ideas from a longstanding but little recognised literature on adaptive governance can be used to rethink the way science supports Australian drought policy. We compare and contrast alternative ways of using science to support policy in order to critique traditional commentary on Australian drought policy. We find that criticism from narrow disciplinary and institutional perspectives has provided few practical options for policy makers managing these complex and interacting goals. in contrast, ideas from a longstanding but little recognised literature on adaptive governance have potential to create innovative policy options for addressing the multiple interacting goals of Australian drought policy. From an adaptive governance perspective, the deep concern held by Australian society for rural communities affected by drought can be viewed as a common property resource that can be sustainably managed by governments in cooperation with rural communities. Managing drought assistance as a common property resource can be facilitated through nested and polycentric systems of governance similar to those that have already evolved in other arenas of natural resource management in Australia, such as Landcare groups and Catchment Management Authorities. Essential to delivering these options is the creation of flexible, regionally distributed scientific support for drought policy capable of integrating local knowledge and informing the livelihood outcomes of critical importance to governments and rural communities. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: In this paper we propose a framework for evaluating how prepared California resource managers are for risks of continued climate change. The framework presented suggests three critical dimensions of preparedness - awareness of climate-related risks, analytic capacity to translate such climate risks information into specific planning and management activities, and the extent of actions taken to address the risks. We illustrate the application of this framework in this paper through preliminary research of California coastal managers where we identify limited awareness of climate-change related risks, limited analytic capacity, and significant constraints on the abilities of institutions and individuals to take adaptation actions. Our analysis suggests that for California to realize its significant adaptive capacity and be able to manage the unavoidable impacts of climate change, resource managers need to be engaged more effectively in future discussions of managing climate risks in the state.
Abstract: Efforts are being made to develop new paradigms for climate change adaptation policy at both the national and the international levels. However, progress in vulnerability and adaptation research has not been matched by advancement on practical policy initiatives. The complexity of the challenge to develop methods and means to support adaptation to climate change necessitates a diversity of approaches. This diversity is healthy, and yet it is possible to define some key characteristics and tools that can promote practical outcomes. In this paper, some methodologies that have proved successful are reviewed. These include a mapping of contextual circumstances, an appreciation for multiple perspectives, and the importance of a "boundary object" in forging strong interactions among project participants. Further, a toolkit of approaches for natural scientists is presented. This toolkit can be used to organize work in collaboration with stakeholders and other participants and can help overcome barriers to a meaningful contribution to the policy process. Fundamentally, this challenge will require approaches that are more grounded in meaning, narration, and reflection.
Abstract: This paper addresses a very important issue in Australian rural and remote regions: the effects of climate change on various aspects including natural resources, agricultural activity, population health, and social and economic development. The objective is to briefly characterise the consequences of climate change in rural Australia and what we can do to prevent further impact in our rural communities.
Abstract: The effects of and responses to the health impacts of climate change will affect individuals, communities, and societies. Effectively preparing for and responding to current and projected climate change requires ongoing assessment and action, not a one-time assessment of risks and interventions. To promote resilience to climate change and other community stressors, a stepwise course of action is proposed for community-based adaptation that engages stakeholders in a proactive problem solving process to enhance social capital across local and national levels. In addition to grassroots actions undertaken at the community level, reducing vulnerability to current and projected climate change will require top-down interventions implemented by public health organizations and agencies.
Abstract: In this article, we discuss how two interpretations of vulnerability in the climate change literature are manifestations of different discourses and framings of the climate change problem. The two differing interpretations, conceptualized here as 'outcome vulnerability' and 'contextual vulnerability', are linked respectively to a scientific framing and a human-security framing. Each framing prioritizes the production of different types of knowledge, and emphasizes different types of policy responses to climate change. Nevertheless, studies are seldom explicit about the interpretation that they use. We present a diagnostic tool for distinguishing the two interpretations of vulnerability and use this tool to illustrate the practical consequences that interpretations of vulnerability have for climate change policy and responses in Mozambique. We argue that because the two, interpretations are rooted in different discourses and differ fundamentally in their conceptualization of the character and,causes of vulnerability, they cannot be integrated into one common framework. Instead, it should be recognized that the two interpretations represent complementary approaches to the climate change issue. We point out that the human-security framing of climate change has been far less visible in formal, international scientific and policy debates, and addressing this imbalance would broaden the scope of adaptation policies.
Abstract: The integration of climate change adaptation considerations into management of the coast poses major challenges for decision makers. This article reports on a case study undertaken in Christchurch Bay, UK, examining local capacity for strategic response to climate risks, with a particular focus on issues surrounding coastal defense. Drawing primarily on qualitative research with local and regional stakeholders, the analysis identifies fundamental disjunctures between generic concerns over climate change and the adaptive capacity of local management institutions. Closely linked with issues of scale, the problems highlighted here are likely to have broad and continuing relevance for future coastal management elsewhere.
Abstract: Adaptation is a process of deliberate change in anticipation of or in reaction to external stimuli and stress. The dominant research tradi tion on adaptation to environmental change primarily takes an actor-centered view, focusing on the agency of social actors to respond to specific environmental stimuli and emphasizing the reduction of vulnerabilities. The resilience approach is systems orientated, takes a more dynamic view, and sees adaptive capacity as a core feature of resilient social-ecological systems. The two approaches converge in identifying necessary components of adaptation. We argue that resilience provides a useful framework to analyze adaptation processes and to identify appropriate policy responses. We distinguish between incremental adjustments and transformative action and demonstrate that the sources of resilience for taking adaptive action are common across scales. These are the inherent system characteristics that absorb perturbations without losing function, networks and social capital that allow autonomous action, and resources that promote institutional learning.
Abstract: This paper addresses a very salient feature of rural life and landscapes in Australia, natural disasters, and offers a psychological perspective on individual and community perceptions, responses, preparedness and planning. The convergent perspective offered reflects research and practice findings and insights from social and environmental psychology, as well as clinical, health and community psychology. The objective is to briefly characterise bow these psychological approaches frame the psychological and social reality of these threats and events, and to canvas what insights and evidence-based best practice psychology have to offer allied professionals and paraprofessionals, and rural communities, as they experience and come to terms with the vagaries and extremes of the Australian environment.
Abstract: Public participation is commonly advocated in policy responses to climate change. Here we discuss prospects for inclusive approaches to adaptation, drawing particularly on studies of long-term coastal management in the UK and elsewhere. We affirm that public participation is an important normative goal in formulating response to climate change risks, but argue that its practice must learn from existing critiques of participatory processes in other contexts. Involving a wide range of stakeholders in decision-making presents fundamental challenges for climate policy, many of which are embedded in relations of power. In the case of anticipatory responses to climate change, these challenges are magnified because of the long-term and uncertain nature of the problem. Without due consideration of these issues, a tension between principles of public participation and anticipatory adaptation is likely to emerge and may result in an overly managed form of inclusion that is unlikely to satisfy either participatory or instrumental goals. Alternative, more narrowly instrumental, approaches to participation are more likely to succeed in this context, as long as the scope and limitations of public involvement are made explicit from the outset.
Abstract: What are the roles of informal coordination networks, policy-oriented beliefs, and the concern about climate change? Informal networks are considered in addition to the highly publicized strategies and commitments made by government departments and agencies. Based on a survey of agriculture, forestry and water-based policy elites in the Canadian prairies, this article examines the structure and impact of informal networks and policy-oriented beliefs. To do so, a number of testable hypotheses were proposed. The results indicate that respondents looked to the federal government as a potential ally. However, the federal government did not reciprocate by supporting the other major organizational clusters (agriculture and forest industry, provincial government, environment groups and research organizations). A bleak picture of future action on climate change emerges when the gaps between closed and polarized networks are considered.
Abstract: Vulnerability, adaptation and resilience are concepts that are finding increasing currency in several fields of research as well as in various policy and practitioner communities engaged in global environmental change science, climate change, sustainability science, disaster risk-reduction and famine interventions. As scientists and practitioners increasingly work together in this arena a number of questions are emerging: What is credible, salient and legitimate knowledge, how is this knowledge generated and how is it used in decision making? Drawing on important science in this field, and including a case study from southern Africa, we suggest an alternative mode of interaction to the usual one-way interaction between science and practice often used. In this alternative approach, different experts, risk-bearers, and local communities are involved and knowledge and practice is contested, co-produced and reflected upon. Despite some successes in the use and negotiation of such knowledge for 'real' world issues, a number of problems persist that require further investigation including the difficulties of developing consensus on the methodologies used by a range of stakeholders usually across a wide region (as the case study of southern Africa shows, particularly in determining and identifying vulnerable groups, sectors, and systems); slow delivery of products that could enhance resilience to change that reflects not only a lack of data, and need for scientific credibility, but also the time-consuming process of coming to a negotiated understanding in science-practice interactions and, finally, the need to clarify the role of 'external' agencies, stakeholders, and scientists at the outset of the dialogue process and subsequent interactions. Such factors, we argue, all hinder the use of vulnerability and resilience 'knowledge' that is being generated and will require much more detailed investigation by both producers and users Of Such knowledge. (C) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Abstract: Understanding different adaptive capacities is a prerequisite for targeting interventions to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change. Indicators and indices are common tools in this process, but their construction embodies many uncertainties, not least of which is their scale specificity. This paper describes the development of two empirical adaptive capacity indices for use at different scales of analysis: a national index for cross-country comparison in Africa and a household index for cross-household comparison in a village in Limpopo province, South Africa. Explaining the decisions made at each stage of construction illuminates the degree of uncertainty involved when assessing adaptive capacity, and how this uncertainty is compounded when looking across different scales of analysis. It concludes that the central elements of adaptive capacity, based on institutional collective response and the availability of and access to resources, are common at different scales, although the structure of each index is scale-specific. Hence the findings of these apparently irreconcilable scales of analysis converge to demonstrate points of leverage for policy intervention to raise resilience and the capacity to adapt to the risks posed by climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: The term `vulnerability' is used in many different ways by various scholarly communities. The resulting disagreement about the appropriate definition of vulnerability is a frequent cause for misunderstanding in interdisciplinary research on climate change and a challenge for attempts to develop formal models of vulnerability. Earlier attempts at reconciling the various conceptualizations of vulnerability were, at best, partly successful. This paper presents a generally applicable conceptual framework of vulnerability that combines a nomenclature of vulnerable situations and a terminology of vulnerability concepts based on the distinction of four fundamental groups of vulnerability factors. This conceptual framework is applied to characterize the vulnerability concepts employed by the main schools of vulnerability research and to review earlier attempts at classifying vulnerability concepts. None of these one-dimensional classification schemes reflects the diversity of vulnerability concepts identified in this review. The wide range of policy responses available to address the risks from global climate change suggests that climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessments will continue to apply a variety of vulnerability concepts. The framework presented here provides the much-needed conceptual clarity and facilitates bridging the various approaches to researching vulnerability to climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: In this paper I argue that the economic and environmental focus of the climate change debate has overshadowed the significant social implications and almost completely ignored the gendered consequences. In order to shift global attention to the need for international and national social policy addressing these issues I present data on climate change and current and likely future gendered impacts. Firstly I discuss climate change and resultant extreme weather events, noting the human toll. Then, using the Australian drought as a case study, I draw particular attention to its gendered social impacts. Finally I argue for international and national policy to address the current and future gendered social implications of climate change.
Abstract: The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change has focused debate on the costs and benefits of alternative courses of action on climate change. This refocusing has helped to move debate away from science of the climate system and on to issues of policy. However, a careful examination of the Stern Review's treatment of the economics of extreme events in developed countries, such as floods and tropical cyclones, shows that the report is selective in its presentation of relevant impact studies and repeats a common error in impacts studies by confusing sensitivity analyses with projections of future impacts. The Stern Review's treatment of extreme events is misleading because it overestimates the future costs of extreme weather events in developed countries by an order of magnitude. Because the Stern Report extends these findings globally, the overestimate propagates through the report's estimate of future global losses. When extreme events are viewed more comprehensively the resulting perspective can be used to expand the scope of choice available to decision makers seeking to grapple with future disasters in the context of climate change. In particular, a more comprehensive analysis underscores the importance of adaptation in any comprehensive portfolio of responses to climate change. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: Adapting to climate change and managing climate risks are new challenges for farmers, community leaders, and catchment management authorities. To meet this challenge, a new method of making decisions under risk may help. This method is called real options. It begins with common sense and adds rigour. It helps us decide when to keep our options open and when to foreclose options and create new ones. In this paper, real options are explained and applied to several examples by developing a new type of decision diagram. The diagrams are a language for thinking about complex decisions under risk. Farmers, community leaders, and catchment management authorities can develop similar diagrams and use them to communicate with other decision makers and with researchers. Finally, the decision diagrams are related to new mathematical tools to help find optimal decisions for managing climate risks.
Notes: Times Cited: 2 xD;International Expert Team Workshop on Impact of Climate Change/Variability and Medium- to Long-Range Predictions for Agriculture xD;FEB 15-18, 2005 xD;Brisbane, AUSTRALIA
Abstract: This paper reports on the barriers that members of the UK public perceive to engaging with climate change. It draws upon three mixed-method Studies, with an emphasis on the qualitative data which offer an in-depth insight into how people make sense of climate change. The paper defines engagement as an individual's state, comprising three elements: cognitive, affective and behavioural. A number of common barriers emerge from the three studies, which operate broadly at 'individual' and 'social' levels. These major constraints to individual engagement with climate change have implications for achieving significant reductions in greenhouse gases in the UK. We argue that targeted and tailored information provision should be supported by wider structural change to enable citizens and communities to reduce their carbon dependency. Policy implications for effective engagement are discussed. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: Most European assessments of climate change impacts have been carried out on sectors and ecosystems, providing a narrow understanding of what climate change really means for society. Furthermore, the main focus has been on technological adaptations, with less attention paid to the process of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present and analyze findings from recent studies on climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway, with the aim of identifying the wider social impacts of climate change. Three main lessons can be drawn. First, the potential thresholds and indirect effects may be more important than the direct, sectoral effects. Second, highly sensitive sectors, regions, and communities combine with differential social vulnerability to create both winners and losers. Third, high national levels of adaptive capacity mask the barriers and constraints to adaptation, particularly among those who are most vulnerable to climate change. Based on these results, we question complacency in Norway and other European countries regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation.
Abstract: Abstract Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that adaptation to climate change has many similarities with processes of organisational learning. The paper suggests that business organisations face a number of obstacles in learning how to adapt to climate change impacts, especially in relation to the weakness and ambiguity of signals about climate change and the uncertainty about benefits flowing from adaptation measures. Organisations rarely adapt âautonomouslyâ, since their adaptive behaviour is influenced by policy and market conditions, and draws on resources external to the organisation. The paper identifies four adaptation strategies that pattern organisational adaptive behaviour.
Abstract: Resilience is a vital attribute that characterizes a system's capacity to cope with stress. Researchers have examined the measurement of resilience in ecosystems and in social-ecological systems, and the comparative vulnerability of social groups. Our paper refocuses attention on the processes and relations that create social resilience. Our central proposition is that the creation of social resilience is linked to a community's ability to access critical resources. We explore this proposition through an analysis of how community resilience to the stress of water scarcity is influenced by historically contingent mechanisms to gain, control, and maintain access to water. Access is defined broadly as the ability of a community to actually benefit from a resource, and includes a wider range of relations than those derived from property rights alone. We provide a framework for assessing the construction of social resilience and use it to examine, first, the different processes and relations that enabled four communities in northern California to acquire access to water, and second, how access contributed to their differential levels of resilience to potential water scarcity. Legal water rights are extremely difficult to alter, and given the variety of mechanisms that can generate access, our study suggests that strengthening and diversifying a range of structural and relational mechanisms to access water can enhance a community's resilience to water scarcity.
Abstract: This paper reviews research traditions of vulnerability to environmental change and the challenges for present vulnerability research in integrating with the domains of resilience and adaptation. Vulnerability is the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt. Antecedent traditions include theories of vulnerability as entitlement failure and theories of hazard. Each of these areas has contributed to present formulations of vulnerability to environmental change as a characteristic of social-ecological systems linked to resilience. Research on vulnerability to the impacts of climate change spans all the antecedent and successor traditions. The challenges for vulnerability research are to develop robust and credible measures, to incorporate diverse methods that include perceptions of risk and vulnerability, and to incorporate governance research on the mechanisms that mediate vulnerability and promote adaptive action and resilience. These challenges are common to the domains of vulnerability, adaptation and resilience and form common ground for consilience and integration. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Notes: Times Cited: 45 xD;Workshop on Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation xD;FEB, 2005 xD;Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ
Abstract: This paper describes two case studies of demand-side water management in the Okanagan region of southern British Columbia, Canada. The case studies reveal important lessons about how local context shapes the process of adaptation; in these cases, adaptation to rising and changing water demand under a regime of increasingly limited supply in a semi-arid region. Both case studies represent examples of water meter implementation, specifically volume-based pricing in a residential area and as a compliance tool in a mainly farming district. While the initiative was successful in the residential setting, agricultural metering met with stiff resistance. These cases suggest many factors shape the character of the adaptation process, including: interpretation of the signal relative to context, newness of the approach, consumer values, and local and provincial political agendas. Although context has been explored in resource management circles, thus far climate change adaptation research has not adequately discussed the embeddedness of adaptation. In other words, how context matters and what aspects of context, unrelated to climate change, could encourage or thwart the act of adapting. This study is a simple illustration of the potential drivers, barriers and enabling factors that have influenced the adaptation process of water management decisions in the Okanagan.
Notes: Times Cited: 2 xD;Conference on Adaptive Research and Governance in Climate Change xD;OCT, 2003 xD;Ohio State Univ, Columbus, OH
Abstract: We use conjoint choice questions to ask a sample of public health and climate change experts contacted at professional meetings in 2003 and 2004 (n = 100) which of two hypothetical countries, A or B, they deem to have the higher adaptive capacity to certain effects of climate change on human health. These hypothetical countries are described by a vector of seven attributes, including per capita income, inequality in the distribution of income, measures of the health status of the population, the health care system, and access to information. Probit models indicate that our respondents regard per capita income, inequality in the distribution of income, universal health care coverage, and high access to information as important determinants of adaptive capacity. A universal-coverage health care system and a high level of access to information are judged to be equivalent to $12,000-$14,000 in per capita income. We use the estimated coefficients and country socio-demographics to construct an index of adaptive capacity for several countries. In panel-data regressions, this index is a good predictor of mortality in climatic disasters, even after controlling for other determinants of sensitivity and exposure, and for per capita income. We conclude that our conjoint choice questions provide a novel and promising approach to eliciting expert judgments in the climate change arena. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: Vulnerability is an emerging concept for climate science and policy. Over the past decade, efforts to assess vulnerability to climate change triggered a process of theory development and assessment practice, which is reflected in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper reviews the historical development of the conceptual ideas underpinning assessments of vulnerability to climate change. We distinguish climate impact assessment, first- and second-generation vulnerability assessment, and adaptation policy assessment. The different generations of assessments are described by means of a conceptual framework that defines key concepts of the assessment and their analytical relationships. The purpose of this conceptual framework is two-fold: first, to present a consistent visual glossary of the main concepts underlying the IPCC approach to vulnerability and its assessment; second, to show the evolution of vulnerability assessments. This evolution is characterized by the progressive inclusion of non-climatic determinants of vulnerability to climate change, including adaptive capacity, and the shift from estimating expected damages to attempting to reduce them. We hope that this paper improves the understanding of the main approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment and their evolution, not only within the climate change community but also among researchers from other scientific communities, who are sometimes puzzled by the unfamiliar use of technical terms in the context of climate change.
Notes: Times Cited: 23 xD;UNDP-Expert-Group Meeting on Integrating Disaster Reduction and Adaptation to Climate Change xD;JUN 17-19, 2002 xD;Havana, CUBA
Abstract: The methods, tools and outputs of the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) show how building adaptive capacity to climate change can be embedded within a wide range of organizations. UKCIP has been operating since 1997 to support decision-makers' assessments of their vulnerability to climate change so that they can plan how to adapt. Whilst stakeholder engagement is now generally regarded as vital to ensure that research meets the needs of decision-makers for information, this usually means that stakeholders are positioned in a 'consultative' role in research. In contrast, the UKCIP aims to bridge the gap between research and policy so that decision-makers take control to produce research in ways that are useful to them. The Programme has been flexible and was developed incrementally, with increased scientific understanding, taking advantage of collaborative funding and facilitating long-standing partnerships. Whilst the core framework of scenarios and tools has been developed centrally, most studies have been stakeholder-funded and led. The Programme's results suggest that if decision-makers are supported, capacity is built for assessments, and crucially, research outputs are directly applicable to their ongoing work and strategic planning. This capacity-building has worked across scales and sectors and is an effective route to mainstreaming climate change adaptation. The implication, therefore, is that more support should be given by funding agencies to develop institutional capacity to support adaptation to climate change in both the private and public sectors.
Abstract: We address the issue of how to develop credible indicators of vulnerability to climate change that can be used to guide the development of adaptation policies. We compare the indicators and measures that five past national-level studies have used and examine how and why their approaches have differed. Other relevant indicator studies of social facets of society as well as vulnerability studies at sub-national level are also examined for lessons regarding best practice. We find that the five studies generally emphasise descriptive measures by aggregating environmental and social conditions. However, they vary greatly both in the types of indicators and measures used and differ substantially in their identification of the most vulnerable countries. Further analysis of scientific approaches underlying indicator selection suggests that the policy relevance of national-level indicators can be enhanced by capturing the processes that shape vulnerability rather than trying to aggregate the state itself. Such a focus can guide the selection of indicators that are representative even when vulnerability varies over time or space.We find that conceptualisation regarding how specific factors and processes influencing vulnerability interact is neither given sufficient consideration nor are assumptions transparently defined in previous studies. Verification has been neglected, yet this process is important both to assess the credibility of any set of measures and to improve our understanding of vulnerability. A fundamental lesson that emerges is the need to enhance our understanding of the causes of vulnerability in order to develop indicators that can effectively aid policy development.
Abstract: Institutional barriers and bridges to local climate change impacts adaptation affecting small rural municipalities and Conservation Authorities (CAs are watershed agencies) in Eastern Ontario (Canada) are examined, and elements of a community-based adaptation strategy related to water infrastructures are proposed as a case-study in community adaptation to climate change. No general water scarcity is expected for the region even under unusually dry weather scenarios. Localized quantity and quality problems are likely to occur especially in groundwater recharge areas. Some existing institutions can be relied on by municipalities to build an effective adaptation strategy based on a watershed/region perspective, on their credibility, and on their expertise. Windows of opportunity or framing issues are offered at the provincial level, the most relevant one in a federal state, by municipal emergency plan requirements and pending watershed source water protection legislation. Voluntary and soon to be mandated climate change mitigation programs at the federal level are other ones.
Notes: Times Cited: 1 xD;Conference on Adaptive Research and Governance in Climate Change xD;OCT, 2003 xD;Ohio State Univ, Columbus, OH
Abstract: The article focuses on the use of climate change vulnerability assessments in a local decision-making context, with particular reference to recent studies in Norway. We focus on two aspects of vulnerability assessments that we see as key to local decision-making: first, the information generated through the assessments themselves, and second, the institutional linkages to local level decision-making processes. Different research approaches generate different types of data. This is rarely made explicit, yet it has important implications for decision-making. In addressing these challenges we propose a dialectic approach based on exchange, rather than integration of data from different approaches. The focus is on process over product, and on the need for anchoring vulnerability assessments in local decision-making processes. In conclusion, we argue that there is unlikely to be one single 'correct' assessment tool or indicator model to make vulnerability assessments matter at a local level. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in the number and strength of natural hazards produced by climatic events. This paper presents some examples of the experiences of community-based organisations (CBOs) and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) of variations in climate, and looks at how they have incorporated their findings into the design and implementation of local adaptation strategies. Local organisations integrate climate change and climatic hazards into the design and development of their projects as a means of adapting to their new climatic situation. Projects designed to boost the resilience of local livelihoods are good examples of local adaptation strategies. To upscale these adaptation initiatives, there is a need to improve information exchange between CBOs, NGOs and academia. Moreover, there is a need to bridge the gap between scientific and local knowledge in order to create projects capable of withstanding stronger natural hazards.
Notes: Times Cited: 1 xD;International Conference on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction xD;JUN 14-15, 2005 xD;The Hague, NETHERLANDS
Abstract: This paper provides an economic perspective of adaptation to climate change. The paper specifically examines the role of markets and government in efficient adaptation responses. For adaptations to be efficient, the benefits from following adaptations must exceed the costs. For private market goods, market actors will follow this principle in their own interest. For public goods, governments must take on this responsibility. Governments must also be careful to design institutions that encourage efficiency or they could inadvertently increase the damages from climate change. Finally, although in a few cases actors must anticipate climate changes far into the future, generally it is best to learn and then act with respect to adaptation.
Notes: Times Cited: 1 xD;Conference on Adaptive Research and Governance in Climate Change xD;OCT, 2003 xD;Ohio State Univ, Columbus, OH
Abstract: Climate change requires societal engagement on both mitigation and adaptation. With a growing majority of people living in cities, urban dwellers and municipal decision-makers will need to reduce their emissions and other impacts on the regional and global climate while dealing with the unavoidable near-term and potential longer-term impacts of climate change. To facilitate effective societal response to climate change, a busy, distracted, and so far only marginally interested public needs to be engaged on the topic. This poses significant challenges to communication and sustained outreach efforts. This letter draws on critical insights from a three-year multi-disciplinary project that involved academics and practitioners from various disciplines and sectors of (mostly US) society and explored how to communicate climate change in ways that facilitate societal response. The letter raises questions about key audiences, appropriate messengers, framings and messages, reception of climate change information, and the choice of communication mediums and formats to achieve different communication and engagement goals.
Abstract: Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that adaptation to climate change has many similarities with processes of organisational learning. The paper suggests that business organisations face a number of obstacles in learning how to adapt to climate change impacts, especially in relation to the weakness and ambiguity of signals about climate change and the uncertainty about benefits flowing from adaptation measures. Organisations rarely adapt 'autonomously', since their adaptive behaviour is influenced by policy and market conditions, and draws on resources external to the organisation. The paper identifies four adaptation strategies that pattern organisational adaptive behaviour.
Notes: Times Cited: 7 xD;Conference on Adaptive Research and Governance in Climate Change xD;OCT, 2003 xD;Ohio State Univ, Columbus, OH
Abstract: The resilience perspective is increasingly used as an approach for understanding the dynamics of socialâecological systems. This article presents the origin of the resilience perspective and provides an overview of its development to date. With roots in one branch of ecology and the discovery of multiple basins of attraction in ecosystems in the 1960â1970s, it inspired social and environmental scientists to challenge the dominant stable equilibrium view. The resilience approach emphasizes non-linear dynamics, thresholds, uncertainty and
surprise, how periods of gradual change interplay with periods of rapid change and how such dynamics interact across temporal and spatial scales. The history was dominated by empirical observations of ecosystem dynamics interpreted in mathematical models, developing into the adaptive management approach for responding to ecosystem change. Serious attempts to integrate the social dimension is currently taking place in resilience work reflected in the large numbers of sciences involved in explorative studies and new discoveries of linked socialâecological systems. Recent advances include understanding of social processes like, social learning and social memory, mental models and knowledgeâsystem integration, visioning and scenario building, leadership, agents and actor groups, social networks, institutional and organizational inertia and change, adaptive capacity, transformability and systems of adaptive governance that allow for management of essential ecosystem services.
Abstract: This article presents a conceptual model to investigate population migration as a possible adaptive response to risks associated with climate change. The model reflects established theories of human migration behaviour, and is based upon the concepts of vulnerability, exposure to risk and adaptive capacity, as developed in the climate change research community. The application of the model is illustrated using the case of 1930s migration patterns in rural Eastern Oklahoma, which took place during a period of repeated crop failures due to drought and flooding.
Abstract: Emergency and disaster management in Australia is gradually moving towards a prevention-oriented focus that involves working with rather than on local communities. Such an approach, now frequently employed through the nationally endorsed framework of emergency risk management (ERM), involves the consideration of âvulnerabilityâ of individuals and communities. This paper focuses on emergency management in remote indigenous communities to illustrate how the conceptualisation and application of the concept of vulnerability is bound with our attitudes to, and understanding of these communities. It is argued that the uncritical application of the concept of vulnerability to indigenous communities will do little to build communities that are more resilient and better able to manage disasters and emergencies. The paper suggests that a focus on local understandings of risk, local knowledge of hazards and coping strategies is critical for the development of safer, sustainable communities. This will involve re-examining the role of emergency managers and the applicability of mainstream emergency management practices in indigenous communities. The paper concludes that emergency management must learn from critiques of dominant development strategies by accepting the value of existing capacities in indigenous communities and working towards relationships and processes that apply new strategies and ways of working.
Abstract: Current climate variability and anticipated climate change challenge our water systems and our financial resources. The sharing of economic losses due to weather related hazards and the sharing of costs that result from protecting lives and property take place in different forms, but are currently insufficient. In this paper we discuss three different rationales for financing disaster losses through public and private arrangements, as well as options for financing adaptation, with a special focus on water management. We propose that financial arrangements for risk sharing and climate change adaptation should be reconsidered, in a more structured approach, to be able to deal with both disaster losses and the costs that arise because of climate change adaptation, e.g. for water management, in both developing and developed countries.
Notes: Times Cited: 3 xD;International Conference on Climate Change and Water Management xD;SEP 27-29, 2004 xD;Amsterdam, NETHERLANDS
Abstract: We present a set of indicators of vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate variability, and by extension climate change, derived using a novel empirical analysis of data aggregated at the national level on a decadal timescale. The analysis is based on a conceptual framework in which risk is viewed in terms of outcome, and is a function of physically defined climate hazards and socially constructed vulnerability. Climate outcomes are represented by mortality from climate-related disasters, using the emergency events database data set, statistical relationships between mortality and a shortlist of potential proxies for vulnerability are used to identify key vulnerability indicators. We find that 11 key indicators exhibit a strong relationship with decadally aggregated mortality associated with climate-related disasters. Validation of indicators, relationships between vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and the sensitivity of subsequent vulnerability assessments to different sets of weightings are explored using expert judgement data, collected through a focus group exercise. The data are used to provide a robust assessment of vulnerability to climate-related mortality at the national level, and represent an entry point to more detailed explorations of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. They indicate that the most vulnerable nations are those situated in sub-Saharan Africa and those that have recently experienced conflict. Adaptive capacity-one element of vulnerability-is associated predominantly with governance, civil and political rights, and literacy. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: Adaptation has emerged as an important area of research and assessment among climate change scientists. Most scholarly work has identified resource constraints as being the most significant determinants of adaptation. However, empirical research on adaptation has so far mostly not addressed the importance of measurable and alterable psychological factors in determining adaptation. Drawing from the literature in psychology and behavioural economics, we develop a socio-cognitive Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change (MPPACC). MPPACC separates out the psychological steps to taking action in response to perception, and allows one to see where the most important bottlenecks occur-including risk perception and perceived adaptive capacity, a factor largely neglected in previous climate change research. We then examine two case studies-one from urban Germany and one from rural Zimbabwe-to explore the validity of MPPACC to explaining adaptation. In the German study, we find that MPPACC provides better statistical power than traditional socio-economic models. In the Zimbabwean case study, we find a qualitative match between MPPACC and adaptive behaviour. Finally, we discuss the important implications of our findings both on vulnerability and adaptation assessments, and on efforts to promote adaptation through outside intervention. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: TERM (The Enormous Regional Model) is a "bottom-up" CGE model of Australia which treats each region as a separate economy. TERM was created specifically to deal with highly disaggregated regional data while providing a quick solution to simulations. This makes it a useful tool for examining the regional impacts of shocks that may be region-specific. We include some details of how we prepared the TERM database, using a national input-output table, together with regional data showing output (for agriculture) and employment (in other sectors) for each of 144 sectors and 57 regions (the Australian statistical divisions). Using a 38-sector, 45-region aggregation of the model, we simulate the short-run effects of the Australian drought of 2002-2003, which was the most widespread for 20 years. The effects on some statistical divisions are extreme, with income losses of up to 20%. Despite the relatively small share of agriculture in Australian GDP, the drought reduces GDP by 1.6%, and contributes to a decline in unemployment and to a worsening of the balance of trade. (c) 2005 Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Abstract: To inform local and regional decisions about protecting short-term and long-term quality of life, the Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA) provides data and tools (for the northeastern United States) that can help decisionmakers understand how outcomes of their decisions could be affected by potential changes in both climate and land use. On an interactive, user-friendly website, CARA has amassed data on climate (historical records and future projections for seven global climate models), land cover, and socioeconomic and environmental variables, along with tools to help decisionmakers tailor the data for their own decision types and locations. CARA Advisory Council stakeholders help identify what information and tools stakeholders would find most useful and how to present these: they also provide in-depth feedback for subregion case studies. General lessons include: (1) decisionmakers want detailed local projections for periods short enough to account for extreme events, in contrast to the broader spatial and temporal observations and projections that are available or consistent at a regional level; (2) stakeholders will not use such a website unless it is visually appealing and easy to find the information they want; (3) some stakeholders need background while others want to go immediately to data, and some want maps while others want text or tables. This article also compares what has been learned across case studies of Cape May County, New Jersey, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and Hampton Roads, Virginia, relating specifically to sea-level rise. Lessons include: (1) groups can be affected differently by physical dangers compared with economic dangers; (2) decisions will differ according to decision makers' preferences about waiting and risk tolerance; (3) future scenarios and maps can help assess the impacts of dangers to emergency evacuation routes, homes, and infrastructure, and the natural environment; (4) residents' and decisionmakers' perceptions are affected by information about potential local impacts from global climate change.
Abstract: Issues of equity and justice are high on international agendas dealing with the impacts of global climate change. But what are the implications of climate change for equity and justice amongst vulnerable groups at local and sub-national levels? We ask this question for three reasons: (a) there is a considerable literature suggesting that the poorest and most vulnerable groups will disproportionately experience the negative effects of 21st century climate change; (b) such changes are likely to impact significantly on developing world countries, where natural-resource dependency is high; and (c) international conventions increasingly recognise the need to centrally engage resource stakeholders in agendas in order to achieve their desired aims, as part of more holistic approaches to sustainable development. These issues however have implications for distributive and procedural justice, particularly when considered within the efforts of the UNFCCC. The issues are examined through an evaluation of key criteria relating to climate change scenarios and vulnerability in the developing world, and second through two southern African case studies that explore the ways in which livelihoods are differentially impacted by (i) inequitable natural-resource use policies, (ii) community-based natural-resource management programmes. Finally, we consider the placement of climate change amongst the package of factors affecting equity in natural-resource use, and whether this placement creates a case for considering climate change as 'special' amongst livelihood disturbing factors in the developing world. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: Climate change impacts and responses are presently observed in physical and ecological systems. Adaptation to these impacts is increasingly being observed in both physical and ecological systems as well as in human adjustments to resource availability and risk at different spatial and societal scales. We review the nature of adaptation and the implications of different spatial scales for these processes. We outline a set of normative evaluative criteria for judging the success of adaptations at different scales. We argue that elements of effectiveness, efficiency, equity and legitimacy are important in judging success in terms of the sustainability of development pathways into an uncertain future. We further argue that each of these elements of decision-making is implicit within presently formulated scenarios of socio-economic futures of both emission trajectories and adaptation, though with different weighting. The process by which adaptations are to be judged at different scales will involve new and challenging institutional processes. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: The article examines the role institutions play in climate adaptation in Norway. Using examples from two municipalities in the context of institutional responses to floods, we find, first, that the institutional framework for flood management in Norway gives weak incentives for proactive local flood management. Second, when strong local political and economic interests coincide with national level willingness to pay and provide support, measures are often carried out rapidly at the expense of weaker environmental interests. Third, we find that new perspectives on flood management are more apparent at the national than the municipal level, as new perspectives are filtered by local power structures. The findings have important implications for vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in terms of policy options and the local level as the optimal level for adaptation. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: Uncertainties in the human dimensions of global change deeply affect the assessment and responses to climate change impacts such as sea-level rise (SLR). This paper explores the uncertainties in the assessment process and in state-level policy and management responses of three US states to SLR. The findings reveal important political, economic, managerial, and social factors that enable or constrain SLR responses; question disasters as policy windows; and uncover new policy opportunities in the history of state coastal policies. Results suggest that a more realistic, and maybe more useful picture of climate change impacts will emerge if assessments take more seriously the locally embedded realities and constraints that affect individual decision-makers' and communal responses to climate change. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: Current climate variability and anticipated climate change challenge our water systems and our financial resources. The sharing of economic losses due to weather related hazards and the sharing of costs that result from protecting lives and property take place in different forms, but are currently insufficient. In this paper we discuss three different rationales for financing disaster losses through public and private arrangements, as well as options for financing adaptation, with a special focus on water management. We propose that financial arrangements for risk sharing and climate change adaptation should be reconsidered, in a more structured approach, to be able to deal with both disaster losses and the costs that arise because of climate change adaptation, e.g. for water management, in both developing and developed countries.
Abstract: This analysis uses the rural livelihood framework of Ellis (Rural Livelihoods and Diversity in Developing Countries (2000) Oxford University Press, England) to create a simple and easily constructed indicator of the vulnerability to structural adjustment of Australian farm households. Its goal is to show how existing information provided by Australian farmers through ABARE's annual farm surveys can be used to identify regions most vulnerable to structural adjustment pressure. Implications for agricultural policies are discussed.
Abstract: Climate influences natural processes at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Consequently, climate change raises many challenges for sustainable forest management; among them, the integration of fire and forest management is increasingly discussed. We propose here an evaluation of the adaptive capacity of forest management under changing forest fire regimes under climate change in the boreal forest of Quebec. Adaptation begins by reinterpreting current practices dealing with climatically driven variability Among them, fire suppression, and regeneration enhancement can contribute to coping with some impacts of climate change. However, there is an increasing need to develop more integrative and spatially explicit management strategies to decrease the vulnerability of forest management to changing fire risk. Some developing management strategies, such as fuel management or the triad approach (zoning system for conservation, intensive, and extensive forest management), present an interesting potential for integrating the fire risk in management plans. While fuel management and fire suppression are indicated for particularly severe fire regimes, protection against insects, and maintaining a shorter disturbance cycle using forest management represent the preferred adaptation options where the fire cycle is lengthening under climate change.
Abstract: Adapting to climate change will require financial resources. For the most vulnerable, only part of these resources are likely to be met by governments and the Convention's financial provisions. Lack of public funding has led to exploration of insurance schemes (public and privately funded). Experience of insurance markets, including responses by the industry to the increased frequency of extreme weather events, is useful in guiding policy developments in this area. The article suggests there are limits to the availability of commercial weather-related insurance in developed and developing countries. Micro-finance schemes may be useful. Additionally, the financial services sector may end up playing a role in prompting mitigation responses in order to prevent some climate impacts from occurring and thus limit the amount of adaptation insurance/funding needed in the future.
Abstract: Understanding what constitutes dangerous climate change is of critical importance for future concerted action ( Schneider, 2001, 2002). To date separate scientific and policy discourses have proceeded with competing and somewhat arbitrary definitions of danger based on a variety of assumptions and assessments generally undertaken by 'experts'. We argue that it is not possible to make progress on defining dangerous climate change, or in developing sustainable responses to this global problem, without recognising the central role played by social or individual perceptions of danger. There are therefore at least two contrasting perspectives on dangerous climate change, what we term 'external' and 'internal' definitions of risk. External definitions are usually based on scientific risk analysis, performed by experts, of system characteristics of the physical or social world. Internal definitions of danger recognise that to be real, danger has to be either experienced or perceived - it is the individual or collective experience or perception of insecurity or lack of safety that constitutes the danger. A robust policy response must appreciate both external and internal definitions of danger.
Abstract: There are two main policy responses to climate: prevention of climate change (mitigation) through reducing emissions and coping with its effects (adaptation). Mitigation has been given more priority in climate negotiations to date. Because the impacts of climate change are likely to increase in the coming years and there is growing realisation that vulnerable countries and communities will be disproportionately adversely affected, much more attention is now being paid to adaptation than was previously the case, particularly by development organisations. Defining climate change and adaptation carefully is critical to ensuring the success of actions promoting how adaptation can be mainstreamed in development. Narrow definitions of climate change, which ignore climate variability and donor focus on looking at the "global environmental benefits" of adaptation will mean that the adaptation needs of the most vulnerable will not be met.
Abstract: There is growing concern for the capacity of urban and rural communities to manage current water shortages and to prepare for shortages that may accompany predicted changes in climate. In this paper, concepts relating to the notion of climate adaptation and particularly "capacity building" are used to elucidate several determinants of community-level capacity for water management. These concepts and criteria are then used to interpret empirically derived insights relating to local management of water shortages in Ontario, Canada. General determinants of water-related community capacity relate to upper tier political and institutional arrangements; the characteristics of, and relationships among, pertinent agencies, groups, or individuals involved in water management; and the adequacy of financial, human, information, and technical resources. The case analysis illustrates how general factors play out in local experience. The findings point to geographically specific factors that influence the effectiveness of management. Key factors include collaboration between water managers, clarification of agency roles and responsibilities, integration of water management and land-use planning, and recognition and participation of both urban and rural stakeholders, whose sensitivities to water shortages are spatially and temporally variable.
Abstract: Future changes in climate pose significant challenges for society, not the least of which is how best to adapt to observed and potential future impacts of these changes to which the world is already committed. Adaptation is a dynamic social process: the ability of societies to adapt is determined, in part, by the ability to act collectively. This article reviews emerging perspectives on collective action and social capital and argues that insights from these areas inform the nature of adaptive capacity and normative prescriptions of policies of adaptation. Specifically, social capital is increasingly understood within economics to have public and private elements, both of which are based on trust, reputation, and reciprocal action. The public-good aspects of particular forms of social capital are pertinent elements of adaptive capacity in interacting with natural capital and in relation to the performance of institutions that cope with the risks of changes in climate. Case studies are presented of present-day collective action for coping with extremes in weather in coastal areas in Southeast Asia and of community-based coastal management in the Caribbean. These cases demonstrate the importance of social capital framing both the public and private institutions of resource management that build resilience in the face of the risks of changes in climate. These cases illustrate, by analogy, the nature of adaptation processes and collective action in adapting to future changes in climate.
Notes: Times Cited: 49 xD;Biennial Congress of the International-Society-for-Ecological-Economics xD;MAR, 2002 xD;SOUSSE, TUNISIA
Abstract: Environmental policy integration (EPI) is a key defining feature of sustainable development. Despite the fact that EPI has been the subject of much debate both in academic and policy-making circles, conceptual issues relating to EPI have received relatively little treatment. The conceptual work that has been completed on EPI,generally fails to place the concept in an appropriate environmental policy context. and this in turn appears to betray the fact that the concept clearly implies a relatively strong revision of the traditional hierarchy of policy objectives. In this article the author'S discuss the origins of the concept and provide conceptual clarification regarding its definition and context. Further, the article derives a simple analytical framework consisting of vertical and horizontal dimensions of EPI. which can serve as a useful point of departure for further empirical work on the implementation of EPI.
Abstract: Emerging recognition of two fundamental errors underpinning past polices for natural resource issues heralds awareness of the need for a worldwide fundamental change in thinking and in practice of environmental management. The first error has been an implicit assumption that ecosystem responses to human use are linear, predictable and controllable. The second has been an assumption that human and natural systems can be treated independently. However, evidence that has been accumulating in diverse regions all over the world suggests that natural and social systems behave in nonlinear ways, exhibit marked thresholds in their dynamics, and that social-ecological systems act as strongly coupled, complex and evolving integrated systems. This article is a summary of a report prepared on behalf of the Environmental Advisory Council to the Swedish Government, as input to the process of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg, South Africa in 26 August 4 September 2002. We use the concept of resilience-the capacity to buffer change, learn and develop-as a framework for understanding how to sustain and enhance adaptive capacity in a complex world of rapid transformations. Two useful tools for resilience-building in social-ecological systems are structured scenarios and active adaptive management. These tools require and facilitate a social context with flexible and open institutions and multi-level governance systems that allow for learning and increase adaptive capacity without foreclosing future development options.
Abstract: The nature of adaptation to climate variability in the Southwest US is explored using the Middle San Pedro River Valley in southern Arizona as a case study. An integrated vulnerability assessment focuses on the dynamic interaction of natural climatic and hydrological systems with socio-economic systems, This approach reveals that residents in the study region do not perceive short-term or long-term vulnerability to climate variability or climate change. The paper uses an ethnographic field approach to examine the. technical and organizational factors that constitute the adaptation process and reduce vulnerability to climate in the valley, It concludes by discussing the potential dangers of ignoring climate in a rapidly growing, semi-arid environment.
Abstract: Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adaptation has recently gained importance, yet adaptation is much less developed than mitigation as a policy response. Adaptation research has been used to help answer to related but distinct questions. (1) To what extent can adaptation reduce impacts of climate change? (2) What adaptation policies are needed, and how can they best be developed, applied and funded? For the first question, the emphasis is on the aggregate value of adaptation so that this may be used to estimate net impacts. An important purpose is to compare net impacts with the costs of mitigation. In the second question, the emphasis is on the design and prioritisation of adaptation policies and measures. While both types of research are conducted in a policy context, they differ in their character, application, and purpose. The impacts/mitigation research is orientated towards the physical and biological science of impacts and adaptation, while research on the ways and means of adaptation is focussed on the social and economic determinants of vulnerability in a development context. The main purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how the national adaptation studies carried under the UNFCCC are broadening the paradigm, from the impacts/mitigation to vulnerability/adaptation. For this to occur, new policy research is needed. While the broad new directions of both research and policy can now be discerned, there remain a number of outstanding issues to be considered. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: Human adaptation remains an insufficiently studied part of the subject of climate change. This paper examines the questions of adaptation and change in terms of social-ecological resilience using lessons from a place-specific case study. The Inuvialuit people of the small community of Sachs Harbour in Canada's western Arctic have been tracking climate change throughout the 1990s. We analyze the adaptive capacity of this community to deal with climate change. Short-term responses to changes in land-based activities, which are identified as coping mechanisms, are one component of this adaptive capacity. The second component is related to cultural and ecological adaptations of the Inuvialuit for life in a highly variable and uncertain environment; these represent long-term adaptive strategies. These two types of strategies are, in fact, on a continuum in space and time. This study suggests new ways in which theory and practice can be combined by showing how societies may adapt to climate change at multiple scales. Switching species and adjusting the "where, when, and how" of hunting are examples of shorter-term responses. On the other hand, adaptations such as flexibility in seasonal hunting patterns, traditional knowledge that allows the community to diversity hunting activities, networks for sharing food and other resources, and intercommunity trade are longer-term, culturally ingrained mechanisms. Individuals, households, and the community as a whole also provide feedback on their responses to change. Newly developing co-management institutions create additional linkages for feedback across different levels, enhancing the capacity for learning and self-organization of the local inhabitants and making it possible for them to transmit community concerns to regional, national, and international levels.
Abstract: This paper offers a practically motivated method for evaluating systems' abilities to handle external stress, The method is designed to assess the potential contributions of various adaptation options to improving systems' coping capacities by focusing attention directly on the underlying determinants of adaptive capacity. The method should be sufficiently flexible to accommodate diverse applications, hose contexts are location specific and path dependent without imposing the straightjacket constraints of a "one size fits all" cookbook approach. Nonetheless, the method should produce unitless indicators that can be employed to judge the relative vulnerabilities of diverse systems to multiple stresses and to their potential interactions. An artificial application is employed to describe the development of the method and to illustrate how it might be applied. Some empirical evidence is offered to underscore the significance of the determinants of adaptive capacity in determining vulnerability these are the determinants upon which the method is constructed, The method is, finally. applied directly to expert judgments of six different adaptations that could reduce vulnerability in the Netherlands to increased flooding along the Rhine River. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: Climate change poses significant challenges for the Canadian water sector. This paper discusses issues relating to the selection of proactive, planned adaptation measures for the near term (next decade), A set of selection criteria is offered, and these are used in three cases to illustrate how stakeholders can identify measures appropriate for the near term. Cases include municipal water supply in the Grand River basin, Ontario; irrigation in southern Alberta. and commercial navigation on the Great Lakes. In all three cases, it is possible to identify adaptations to climate change that also represent appropriate responses to existing conditions; these should be pursued first. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: Human adaptation remains an insufficiently studied part of the subject of climate change. This paper examines the questions of adaptation and change in terms of social-ecological resilience using lessons from a place-specific case study. The Inuvialuit people of the small community of Sachs Harbour in Canada's western Arctic have been tracking climate change throughout the 1990s. We analyze the adaptive capacity of this community to deal with climate change. Short-term responses to changes in land-based activities, which are identified as coping mechanisms, are one component of this adaptive capacity. The second component is related to cultural and ecological adaptations of the Inuvialuit for life in a highly variable and uncertain environment; these represent long-term adaptive strategies. These two types of strategies are, in fact, on a continuum in space and time. This study suggests new ways in which theory and practice can be combined by showing how societies may adapt to climate change at multiple scales. Switching species and adjusting the "where, when, and how" of hunting are examples of shorter-term responses. On the other hand, adaptations such as flexibility in seasonal hunting patterns, traditional knowledge that allows the community to diversity hunting activities, networks for sharing food and other resources, and intercommunity trade are longer-term, culturally ingrained mechanisms. Individuals, households, and the community as a whole also provide feedback on their responses to change. Newly developing co-management institutions create additional linkages for feedback across different levels, enhancing the capacity for learning and self-organization of the local inhabitants and making it possible for them to transmit community concerns to regional, national, and international levels.
Abstract: This paper investigates the problem of scientific uncertainty and the way it impedes planning for climate change and accelerated sea-level rise (CC & ASLR) in Pacific Island Countries (PICs). The paper begins by discussing the problems CC & ASLR poses for PICs, and it explores the limitations of the dominant approach to vulnerability and adaptation. Next, the paper considers the way scientific uncertainty problematizes policies aimed at adaptation to CC & ASLR. It argues that the prevailing approach, which requires anticipation of impacts, is unsuccessful, and the paper proposes a complementary strategy aimed to enhance the resilience of whole island social-ecological systems. Recent developments in the theory and practice of resilience are discussed and then applied to formulate goals for adaptation policy in PICs.
Abstract: Perceptions of a continuing crisis in managing Sahelian resources are rooted in five dimensions of the Sahel Drought of 1972-1974 as it was understood at the time: crises in rainfall (drought), food supply, livestock management, environmental degradation, and household coping capabilities. A closer examination of household livelihood and farming systems shows that adaptive strategies have been evolved in response to each of these imperatives. Illustrations are provided from recent research in north-east Nigeria. A systematic understanding of indigenous adaptive capabilities can provide a basis for policies enabling a reduction of dependency on aid assistance in the Sahel. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract: Adaptation to climate variability and change is important both for impact assessment (to estimate adaptations which are likely to occur) and for policy development (to advise on or prescribe adaptations). This paper proposes an "anatomy of adaptation" to systematically specify and differentiate adaptations, based upon three questions: (i) adapt to what? (ii) who or what adapts? and (iii) how does adaptation occur? Climatic stimuli include changes in long-term mean conditions and variability about means, both current and future, and including extremes. Adaptation depends fundamentally on the characteristics of the system of interest, including its sensitivities and vulnerabilities. The nature of adaptation processes and forms can be distinguished by numerous attributes including timing, purposefulness, and effect. The paper notes the contribution of conceptual and numerical models and empirical studies to the understanding of adaptation, and outlines approaches to the normative evaluation of adaptation measures and strategies.
Abstract: We discuss approaches to the assessment of vulnerability to climate variability and change and attempt to clarify the relationship between the concepts of vulnerability and adaptation. In search of a robust, policy-relevant framework, we define vulnerability in terms of the capacity of individuals and social groups to respond to, that is, to cope with, recover from or adapt to, any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. The approach that we develop places the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, focussing on the socio-economic and institutional constraints that limit the capacity to respond. From this perspective, the vulnerability or security of any group is determined by resource availability and by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. We illustrate the application of this approach through the results of field research in coastal Vietnam, highlighting shifting patterns of vulnerability to tropical storm impacts at the household- and community-level in response to the current process of economic renovation and drawing conclusions concerning means of supporting the adaptive response to climate stress. Four priorities for action are identified that would improve the situation of the most exposed members of many communities: poverty reduction; risk-spreading through income diversification; respecting common property management rights; and promoting collective security. A sustainable response, we argue, must also address the underlying causes of social vulnerability, including the inequitable distribution of resources.
Abstract: The effects of climatic variability and change on Canadian agriculture have become an important research field since the early 1980s. In this paper, we seek to synthesize this research, focusing on agricultural adaptation, a purposeful proactive or reactive response to changes associated with climate, and influenced by many factors. A distinctive feature of methods used in research on adaptation in Canadian agriculture is the focus on the important role of human agency. Many individual farmers perceive they are well adapted to climate, because of their extensive 'technological' tool-kit, giving them confidence in dealing with climatic change. In many regions, little concern is expressed over climatic change, except where there are particular types of climatic vulnerability. Farmers respond to biophysical factors, including climate, as they interact with a complex of human factors. Several of these, notably institutional and political ones, have tended to diminish the farm-level risks stemming from climatic variability and change, but may well increase the long term vulnerability of Canadian agriculture. Notwithstanding the technological and management adaptation measures available to producers, Canadian agriculture remains vulnerable to climatic variability and to climate change.
Abstract: Many who study global change, particularly from industrialized countries, are optimistic about the capacity of agriculture to successfully adapt to climate change. This optimism is based on historic trends in yield increases, on the spread of cropping systems far beyond their traditional agroecological boundaries, and the inherent flexibility of systems of international trade. Analysis of the success (or in rare cases, failure) of adaptation is by analogy-either to analogous socioeconomic or technological change or to short term environmental change. Such studies have been limited to industrialized countries. This paper uses five analogs from developing countries to examine potential adaptation to global climate change by poor people. Two are studies of comparative developing country responses to drought, flood, and tropical cyclone and to the Sahelian droughts of the 1970s and 80s that illustrate adaptations to climate and weather events:. Two address food production and rapid population growth in South Asia and Africa. Three types of adaptive social costs are considered: the direct costs of adaptation, the costs of adapting to the adaptations, and the costs of failing to adapt. A final analog reviews 30 village-level studies for the role that these social costs of adaptation play in perpetuating poverty and environmental degradation.
Abstract: The effects of climatic variability and change on Canadian agriculture have become an important research field since the early 1980s. In this paper, we seek to synthesize this research, focusing on agricultural adaptation, a purposeful proactive or reactive response to changes associated with climate, and influenced by many factors. A distinctive feature of methods used in research on adaptation in Canadian agriculture is the focus on the important role of human agency. Many individual farmers perceive they are well adapted to climate, because of their extensive 'technological' tool-kit, giving them confidence in dealing with climatic change. In many regions, little concern is expressed over climatic change, except where there are particular types of climatic vulnerability. Farmers respond to biophysical factors, including climate, as they interact with a complex of human factors. Several of these, notably institutional and political ones, have tended to diminish the farm-level risks stemming from climatic variability and change, but may well increase the long term vulnerability of Canadian agriculture. Notwithstanding the technological and management adaptation measures available to producers, Canadian agriculture remains vulnerable to climatic variability and to climate change.
Abstract: The country of Mexico has a long and varied experience with drought, whether described by early historical chronicles or contemporary climatic data and disaster declarations. Much of Mexico is semi-arid and interannual rainfall is highly variable. The experience of drought has resulted in a wide range of adaptations to climate variability, yet today many Mexicans are still extremely vulnerable to lower than average rainfall. This article provides an overview of the nature, causes and consequences of drought in Mexico, focusing on how vulnerability and adaptations vary over time anti space. Some preliminary results of a case study of the recent drought in northern Mexico illustrate the state of vulnerability and the limits of adaptation in contemporary Mexico.
Abstract: This paper discusses some of the elements that may characterise an efficient strategy to adapt to a changing climate. Such a strategy will have to reflect the long time horizon of, and the prevailing uncertainties about, climate change. An intuitively appealing approach therefore seems to be to enhance the flexibility and resilience of systems to react to and cope with climate shocks and extremes, as well as to improve information. In addition, in the case of quasi-irreversible investments with a long lifetime (e.g. infrastructure investments, development of coastal zones) precautionary adjustments may be called for to increase the robustness of structures, or to increase the rate of depreciation to allow for earlier replacement. Many of these measures may already have to be considered now, and could be worthwhile in their own right, independent of climate change considerations. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Abstract: Neither the costs nor the benefits of adaptation to climate change have been systematically studied so far. This paper discusses the extent to which the vast body of literature on climate change impacts can provide insights into the scope and likely cost of adaptation. The ways in which the impacts literature deals with adaptation can be grouped into four categories: no adaptation, arbitrary adaptation observed adaptation (analogues), and modeled adaptation (optimization), All four cases are characterized by the simple assumptions made about the mechanisms of adaptation. No or only scant attention is paid to the process of adapting to a new climate. Adaptation analysis has to acknowledge that people will be neither dumb nor brilliant at adapting. They are likely to see the need for change, but may be constrained in their ability to adapt or in their comprehension of the permanence and direction of change, (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd, All rights reserved.
Abstract: Adaptation is an important approach for protecting human health, ecosystems, and economic systems from the risks posed by climate variability and change, and for exploiting beneficial opportunities provided by a changing climate. This paper presents 9 fundamental principles that should be considered when designing adaptation policy, for example, a sound understanding of the potential regional effects of climate on human and ecological systems is required to target appropriate investments in adaptive responses. The distribution of potential impacts across different populations and the mechanisms by which these impacts occur are also key to effective adaptation measures. Options for coping with climatic changes must be considered in the context of multiple stressors. Further, adaptation is likely to exhibit varying levels of effectiveness as demonstrated by current efforts to deal with climate variability. Potential adverse side effects of adaptive strategies must also be accounted for to avoid solutions that are worse than the problem. These issues and others are presented in this paper, with examples from various impacts studies to illustrate key points.
Abstract: Global warming may profoundly affect temporal and spatial distributions of surface water availability. While climate modelers cannot yet predict regional hydrologic changes with confidence, it is appropriate to begin examining the likely effects of water allocation institutions on society's adaptability to prospective climate change. Such institutions include basic systems of water law, specific statutes, systems of administration and enforcement, and social norms regarding acceptable water-use practices. Both climate and the changing nature of demands on the resource have affected the development and evolution of water allocation institutions in the United States. Water laws and administrative arrangements, for example, have adapted to changing circumstances, but the process of adaptation can be costly and subject to conflict. Analysis of past and ongoing institutional change is used to identify factors that may have a bearing on the costliness of adaptation to the uncertain impacts of global warming on water availability and water demands. Several elements are identified that should be incorporated in the design of future water policies to reduce the potential for disputes and resource degradation that might otherwise result if climate change alters regional hydrology.
Abstract: Assumptions underlying impact assessments of climatic change for agriculture are explored conceptually and empirically. Variability in climatic conditions, the relevance of human decisionmaking, and the role of non-climatic forces are reviewed and captured in a model of agricultural adaptation to climate. An empirical analysis of farmers' decisions in light of variations in climate and other forces is based on a survey of 120 farm operators in southwestern Ontario. Many farmers were affected by variable climatic conditions over a six-year-period, and some undertook strategic adaptations in their farm operations. Frequency of dry years was the key climatic stimulus to farming adaptations. However, only 20 percent of farmers were sufficiently influenced by climatic conditions to respond with conscious changes in their farm operations.
Abstract: Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.
Abstract: Adaptation in agriculture to climate change is important for impact and vulnerability assessment and for the development of climate change policy. A wide variety of adaptation options has been proposed as having the potential to reduce vulnerability of agricultural systems to risks related to climate change, often in an ad hoc fashion. This paper develops a typology of adaptation to systematically classify and characterize agricultural adaptation options to climate change, drawing primarily on the Canadian situation. In particular, it differentiates adaptation options in agriculture according to the involvement of different agents (producers, industries, governments); the intent, timing and duration of employment of the adaptation; the form and type of the adaptive measure; and the relationship to processes already in place to cope with risks associated with climate stresses. A synthesis of research on adaptation options in Canadian agriculture identifies four main categories: (i) technological developments,(ii) government programs and insurance, (iii) farm production practices, and (iv) farm financial management. In addition to these `direct adaptations', there are options, particularly information provision, that may stimulate adaptation initiatives. The results reveal that most adaptation options are modifications to on-going farm practices and public policy decision-making processes with respect to a suite of changing climatic(including variability and extremes) and non-climatic conditions (political, economic and social). For progress on implementing adaptations to climate change in agriculture there is a need to better understand the relationship between potential adaptation options and existing farm-level and government decision-making processes and risk management frameworks.
Abstract: What roles can rational choice theory award to science and social justice in environmental decision-making and governance? Even such a weak starting point can justify a role for social justice in environmental decisions and governance. The article first discusses how, in the light of rational choice theories, science can contribute to environmental decision-making by improving the knowledge upon which it is premised. It then demonstrates how social justice can contribute to the legitimacy and effectiveness of environmental decisions. These arguments are then exemplified and elaborated by applying them to the core dilemmas of governing adaptation to climate change, which include capping the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration, financing and distributing adaptation assistance to vulnerable developing countries, and planning and deciding on adaptive responses. A safe minimum standard for the maximum greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere, a universal carbon tax, and procedural templates extending participation in adaptation planning and decisions are examples of solutions that would enhance social justice in adaptation to climate change.
Abstract:
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Contents
* Foreword, Preface, and Introduction
* Summary for Policymakers
* Technical Summary
1. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems
2. New assessment methods and the characterisation of future conditions
3. Freshwater resources and their management
4. Ecosystem, their properties, goods and services
5. Food, fibre and forest products
6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas
7. Industry, settlement and society
8. Human health
9. Africa
10. Asia - IPCC statement on the melting of Himalayan glaciers, 20 January 2010
11. Australia and New Zealand
12. Europe
13. Latin America
14. North America
15. Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic)
16. Small islands
17. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity
18. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation
19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change
20. Perspectives on climate change and sustainability
Abstract: This project, funded by Land and Water Australia, was concerned with the disparities in spatial scale between the administrative and political entities responsible for resource management, the spatial extent of perceived responsibility and political representation among resource users, and the scales of ecosystem processes themselves. By measuring and representing on a GIS these three sources of influence on the scale of resource management, the project aimed to define new resource management regions in northern New South Wales which would allow more efficient administration, more meaningful local participation, and improved environmental outcomes. The project developed a spatially even social survey and mapping technique of "communities of common interest". An extension of this work facilitated development of a civimetric modelling technique and "Eco-Civic" regionalisation methodology.
Abstract: Climate change is projected to exacerbate the intensity, and frequency, of weather-related hazards such as storms and droughts (IPCC, 2007). These climatic changes are likely to intensify the growth in economic damages from extreme weather events seen over the past two decades (Munich Re Group 2008) and suffered primarily by developing countries least able to cope with them. Absent effective risk reduction strategies and activities, climate-related disasters could severely undermine the ability of regions and nations to meet basic development goals. xD; xD;In this context, well-designed disaster risk management strategies are crucial adaptation investments. Such strategies comprise an array of interventions to mitigate the risk of damage, including early warning systems, local village-level responses, and structural interventions. They also include insurance. xD; xD;By allowing individual countries, companies or individuals to transfer risk of future losses to an insurance provider, insurance can protect policy-holders from large-scale economic losses due to weather disasters, can provide financial liquidity immediately after a loss, and can help build resilience to economic shocks ( see Box 1). If implemented well, insurance offers a real opportunity to help the poor and vulnerable become resilient to the impacts of climate change by allowing markets to bear some of the costs of adapting to these events.
Abstract: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xD;Australia is one of the many global regions experiencing significant climate change as a result of global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from human activities. The average surface air temperature of Australia increased by 0.7°C over the past century â warming that has been accompanied by marked declines in regional precipitation, particularly along the east and west coasts of the continent. These seemingly small changes have already had widespread consequences for Australia. Unfortunately, even if all GHG emissions ceased today, the Earth would still be committed to an additional warming of 0.2â1.0°C by the end of the century. Yet the momentum of the worldâs fossil fuel economy precludes the elimination of GHG emissions over the near-term, and thus future global warming is likely to be well above 1°C. Analysis of future emissions trajectories indicates that, left unchecked, human GHG emissions will increase several fold over the 21st century. As a consequence, Australiaâs annual average temperatures are projected to increase 0.4â2.0°C above 1990 levels by the year 2030, and 1â 6°C by 2070. Average precipitation in southwest and southeast Australia is projected to decline further in future decades, while regions such as the northwest may experience increases in precipitation. Meanwhile, Australiaâs coastlines will experience erosion and inundation from an estimated 8â88 cm increase in global sea level. xD; xD;Such changes in climate will have diverse implications for Australiaâs environment, economy, and public health. The biodiversity, ecosystems, and natural habitats of Australia are world renowned, yet potentially the most fragile of the systems that will be exposed to climate change. For example, the Great Barrier Reef, a UNCESCO World Heritage area, has experienced unprecedented rates of bleaching over the past two decades, and additional warming of only 1°C is anticipated to cause considerable losses or contractions of species associated with coral communities. xD; xD;Australian crop agriculture and forestry may experience transient benefits from longer growing seasons a warmer climate and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, yet such benefits are unlikely to be sustained under the more extreme projections of global warming. Furthermore, changes in precipitation and subsequent water management are critical factors affecting the future productivity of the Australian landscape. The declines in precipitation projected over much of Australia will exacerbate existing challenges to water availability and quality for agriculture as well as for commercial and residential uses. xD; xD;Future changes in climate extremes, such as tropical cyclones, heat waves, and extreme precipitation events, would degrade Australian infrastructure and public health; e.g. through increased energy demands, maintenance costs for transportation infrastructure, and coastal flooding. Global large-scale singularities, such as a slowing or collapse of the oceanâs thermohaline circulation or the collapse of the ice sheets of West Antarctica or Greenland, would also have important long-term implications for Australiaâs climate and coastline. Avoiding, or at the very least reducing, the adverse effects of climate change is a global challenge, yet one that will generate direct benefits for species and habitat conservation, saved lives, and reduced economic and infrastructure costs. For example, limiting future increases in atmospheric CO2 to 550 ppmv, though not a panacea for global warming, would reduce 21st century global warming to an estimated 1.5â2.9°C, effectively avoiding the more extreme climate changes. Lower stabilisation levels, such as 450 ppmv CO2, would reduce future warming even further, to approximately 1.2â2.3°C. For Australia, such constraints on global warming would give natural ecosystems and their associated species greater time to adapt to changing environmental conditions, reduce the likelihood of major adverse consequences for agriculture and forestry, help ensure Australiaâs public health infrastructure can keep pace with emerging health challenges, and reduce the chance of large-scale singularities. Nevertheless, even with a return to 350 ppmv as the stabilisation level, the Earth will not be able to avoid its current commitment to additional future warming. Therefore, prudence dictates that GHG mitigation activities be pursued in conjunction with adaptive responses to address the residual risks posed by this commitment. xD; xD;There is broad, and growing, international support for GHG mitigation. The 1992 United Nationâs Framework Convention on Climate Change, supported by 166 nations, calls for the âstabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.â A number of national governments and climate scientists have suggested atmospheric CO2 concentrations between 375 and 550 ppmv and/or temperature increases of 0.9â2.9°C above 1990 levels as global thresholds for âdangerousâ climate change. xD; xD;Although a specific long-term stabilisation target has not been adopted by the UNFCCC, several national governments, including the United Kingdom and Sweden, have committed to GHG emissions reductions of 60% by the year 2050, a general benchmark estimate of the effort needed by developed, Annex I countries to place the world on a path to achieving a global stabilisation level of no more than 550 ppmv. Similar targets have been explored or recommended by institutions in the United States, the European Union, and recently in Australia, by New South Walesâ Greenhouse Advisory Panel. This technical report outlines the likely impacts on Australia of climate change, and the benefits of global emissions reductions.
Abstract: What happens when the scientific community's responsibility to society conflicts with its professional self interest? In the case of research related to climate change the answer is clear: Self interest trumps responsibility. In 1989, Senator Al Gore provided this justification for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP): "More research and better research and better targeted research is absolutely essential if we are to eliminate the remaining areas of uncertainty and build the broader and stronger political consensus." Over the next 13 years, the nation spent more than $20 billion on research under the USGCRP, with the promise that new fundamental knowledge about the climate system was a crucial prerequisite for effective policymaking. During this time, the politics of climate change have become more intractable, and the path toward scientific certainty much more challenging. xD; xD;Given this track record, two questions have become unavoidable: First, has research focused on "reducing uncertainty" provided information needed by decisionmakers? Second, is it possible that such research has actually impeded effective policymaking? xD; xD;Now is precisely the time to confront these uncomfortable questions. Having declined to participate in the Kyoto Protocol, the Bush administration has refocused attention on climate change research with the recent release of the draft strategic plan for its Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), the new umbrella structure for the USGCRP and the year-old Climate Change Science Initiative. The strategic plan will be finalized in April 2003, after an exhaustive process of public and expert input, including a three-day workshop last December, attended by more than 1,000 people (mostly government and academic scientists), and a formal review by the National Research Council (NRC). As in the USGCRP in 1989, the focus of the draft plan is on reducing uncertainty as the basis for action on climate change.
